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Olave perspective related to contract
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:03 am
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:03 am
Listening to Underhill yesterday and they were talking about the explosion in cap and how the WR numbers for lesser FA receivers are going to be bonkers. Pierce and Jennings are probably going to sign for 20 - 25 million.
Regarding Olave, he literally just made an All-Pro team. As of today, that makes him one of the top 6 WRs in the NFL and he is still under 25. The thought that we are going to sign him for 20 million and that he is not a WR1 are absolutely done. He may not be a big receiver, but All Pro selections mean something. The NFL is telling us that he is a top 6 WR.
With that said, Trip and Underhill put his floor at the 32 million that Garret Wilson just signed for and his ceiling at the 35 million that Justin Jefferson is signed for. Olave and London are both due contracts, so both are probably waiting on the other to sign to set the market. For Olave, the amount will depend on his agent and how the Saints perceive his past injury history.
So, regardless of what you think about Olave being a true WR1, the entire NFL agrees that he is a 1. You just saw what he can do with an actual NFL QB that is not throwing him hospital balls. His next contract will be between 32 and 35 million. We need to stop thinking about money in 2020 terms.
Regarding Olave, he literally just made an All-Pro team. As of today, that makes him one of the top 6 WRs in the NFL and he is still under 25. The thought that we are going to sign him for 20 million and that he is not a WR1 are absolutely done. He may not be a big receiver, but All Pro selections mean something. The NFL is telling us that he is a top 6 WR.
With that said, Trip and Underhill put his floor at the 32 million that Garret Wilson just signed for and his ceiling at the 35 million that Justin Jefferson is signed for. Olave and London are both due contracts, so both are probably waiting on the other to sign to set the market. For Olave, the amount will depend on his agent and how the Saints perceive his past injury history.
So, regardless of what you think about Olave being a true WR1, the entire NFL agrees that he is a 1. You just saw what he can do with an actual NFL QB that is not throwing him hospital balls. His next contract will be between 32 and 35 million. We need to stop thinking about money in 2020 terms.
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 9:27 am
10
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:08 am to saints5021
quote:
The thought that we are going to sign him for 20 million
people who ever said this within the past 6 months are pretty dumb. And then they threw out the 20 million like it was a huge number that they didn't even want to pay olave.
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 9:19 am
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:10 am to Chad504boy
When Wan'dale Robinson signs for 20 million and we sign Olave for 33, people on this board will say Robinson was the better deal and we should have just done that 
2026 figures are going to be nuts for average players.
2026 figures are going to be nuts for average players.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:25 am to saints5021
quote:
Jordan Jefferson
Your PTSD from almost 14 years ago to the date just kicked in, you meant Justin Jefferson
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:26 am to Weekend Warrior79
yeah, still rough Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:31 am to saints5021
The issue with Olave is CLEARLY protection for the team regarding his other medical issues more than a pure football talent one. To discuss the situation in terms of pure football salary and transactions doesn’t paint half the picture IMO.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:44 am to saints5021
quote:
what you think about Olave being a true WR1, the entire NFL agrees that he is a 1
When Olave plays fearless and with focus, he is an absolute WR1. His route running is elite, and he can excel at any route on any part of the field. I think the WR2 talk was more due to his unreliability for a while (drops, short arming catches), not his size. If people think size dictates WR1v2, they are wrong. Talent does.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:45 am to St Augustine
so obviously assuming he gets to next Aug/Sept concussion free with very little football till then... i mean, that's going nearly 20-21 mos without a concussion.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:53 am to Chad504boy
Which DEFINITELY reduces the risk in the current near term compared to a year ago. But his overall risk is still higher due to the extensive history.
If everything is clicking and he avoids other injury we’d assume roughly 100ish actual catches/touches per year (maybe more) with varying levels of contact.
He’s already admitted to considering very early retirement. To me the question is how many more makes HIM just say frick it I’m out?
It’s a turd of a risky situation.
If everything is clicking and he avoids other injury we’d assume roughly 100ish actual catches/touches per year (maybe more) with varying levels of contact.
He’s already admitted to considering very early retirement. To me the question is how many more makes HIM just say frick it I’m out?
It’s a turd of a risky situation.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:02 am to St Augustine
The easiest thing to do would be to give him per game bonuses in the years past the first one, but you have to give him a big enough signing bonus and guarantees to offset switching base salary for per game bonuses.
Just need to find the right balance that will leave us cap flexible but still have Olave agree to terms.
Just need to find the right balance that will leave us cap flexible but still have Olave agree to terms.
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 10:03 am
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:10 am to bonethug0180
Totally agree. Very attractive upfront money so you don’t just chase them off from negotiating(although not really our style to lowball). Not sure if team options are then worked in somehow given the medical history of these and the PE, or like you said just attach the money to participation.
To be clear I 110% want to keep Olave. It’s just kind of a fascinating case in risk vs reward.
To be clear I 110% want to keep Olave. It’s just kind of a fascinating case in risk vs reward.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:37 am to St Augustine
Nick is downplaying the PE hardcore. He barely even mentioned it and dismissed it actually
If Olave develops another clot after being on blood thinners for 3-6 months, that will mean he could need to be on them for life. And everything I’m reading says you can’t play contact sports while on blood thinners
Any doctors / rn’s here that can comment?
If Olave develops another clot after being on blood thinners for 3-6 months, that will mean he could need to be on them for life. And everything I’m reading says you can’t play contact sports while on blood thinners
Any doctors / rn’s here that can comment?
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:39 am to bonethug0180
The right balance part will be tough, because his camp also will be planning for the fact that he could be 1-2 big hits away from having to retire due to injury. Definitely need some offset language for retiring early in the contract; which would make me think not as high on the singing bonus, and work on incentives that would guarantee future salary/roster bonuses if he hits certain benchmarks 
Thinking along the lines of play in 10+ games, 50% of next year's salary is guaranteed. 14+ games, 75% guaranteed
Thinking along the lines of play in 10+ games, 50% of next year's salary is guaranteed. 14+ games, 75% guaranteed
Posted on 1/14/26 at 11:14 am to Proximo
I’ve been a PT for almost 20 years. 12 of them in a hospital. You’re not playing a high velocity contact sport on blood thinners
Imagine a bruise/hematoma that already hurts like hell. Now on blood thinners….
Imagine a head injury/subdural hematoma…now imagine THAT on blood thinners.
Imagine a bruise/hematoma that already hurts like hell. Now on blood thinners….
Imagine a head injury/subdural hematoma…now imagine THAT on blood thinners.
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 11:18 am
Posted on 1/14/26 at 11:22 am to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
The right balance part will be tough, because his camp also will be planning for the fact that he could be 1-2 big hits away from having to retire due to injury. Definitely need some offset language for retiring early in the contract; which would make me think not as high on the singing bonus, and work on incentives that would guarantee future salary/roster bonuses if he hits certain benchmarks
I’ve thought about this as well. Not saying anything about his “character” as he seems like a good dude but kinda what I was alluding to before. Given his recent retirement thoughts I can’t imagine he has a tolerance for many more of these.
You wonder if he gets a relatively large sum upfront if he’s then even more willing to hang it up the next time one of these happens.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 11:24 am to Proximo
quote:
you can’t play contact sports while on blood thinners
This is correct. If he were to retire due to this, then it would not count towards the team's cap. I wouldn't let this dictate if it's wise to sign him longterm or not.
Personally I'm in the camp you don't handicap your cap by paying WRs. They are too readily available and replaceable compared to OT, QB, DE, CB. Those are the premium positions that require the lion's share of the cap
Posted on 1/14/26 at 11:34 am to Midget Death Squad
quote:
If he were to retire due to this, then it would not count towards the team's cap.
I don't think that's true? We’re still eating Ram’s (and Carr's - shoulder) dead cap even though he retired due to his knee condition
The remaining guarantees should accelerate onto the current year's cap
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 11:41 am
Posted on 1/14/26 at 11:42 am to Proximo
Huh. Maybe it's due to the signing bonus? Yeah that's a problem if so
Posted on 1/14/26 at 12:00 pm to Midget Death Squad
Here's the structure of Tee Higgins:
Total Value: 4 years, $115 Million.
Guaranteed at Signing: $30 Million (via roster bonuses).
Total Guaranteed Money: $40.9 Million.
Key Bonuses:
$20 Million Roster Bonus (due shortly after signing).
$10 Million Roster Bonus (guaranteed in 2026).
$5 Million Roster Bonus (due March 2025, not prorated).
It looks like only $40mm was guaranteed on the deal? If you structure it with heavy roster bonuses then I don't think those are fully guaranteed and wouldn't wreck our cap.
I think there is a way to structure it so we're protected
Total Value: 4 years, $115 Million.
Guaranteed at Signing: $30 Million (via roster bonuses).
Total Guaranteed Money: $40.9 Million.
Key Bonuses:
$20 Million Roster Bonus (due shortly after signing).
$10 Million Roster Bonus (guaranteed in 2026).
$5 Million Roster Bonus (due March 2025, not prorated).
It looks like only $40mm was guaranteed on the deal? If you structure it with heavy roster bonuses then I don't think those are fully guaranteed and wouldn't wreck our cap.
I think there is a way to structure it so we're protected
Posted on 1/14/26 at 12:12 pm to saints5021
I say make him play out the 5th year option next year and use the franchise tag after that if needed to negotiate a longer term deal. Yes, I understand the price might just go way up, but I need to see another healthy season before committing - especially after the blood clot.
As others have stated, a pulmonary embolus is normally treated with strong blood thinners for at least 6 months (which would preclude contact sports) and maybe longer if there is an underlying clotting disorder. I've never seen less than 6 months of therapy. Hope they have an explanation for that clot.
As others have stated, a pulmonary embolus is normally treated with strong blood thinners for at least 6 months (which would preclude contact sports) and maybe longer if there is an underlying clotting disorder. I've never seen less than 6 months of therapy. Hope they have an explanation for that clot.
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