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Hot take: Maduro captured, VZ oil industry taken over as a hedge over Iran mining…
Posted on 3/2/26 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 3/2/26 at 8:38 pm
the Strait of Hormuz.
If Iran was successful in laying a minefield, that would choke off 30% or so of global trade.
Oil price would skyrocket overnight and this was strategic in covering the possible volume loss due to logistics. Venezuela was the backup the whole time.
Discuss
If Iran was successful in laying a minefield, that would choke off 30% or so of global trade.
Oil price would skyrocket overnight and this was strategic in covering the possible volume loss due to logistics. Venezuela was the backup the whole time.
Discuss
12
Posted on 3/2/26 at 8:40 pm to idlewatcher
Oil is going up regardless at least my gas station down the street is up to 3.07 and was around 2.70 just last week.
I’m not even sure Iran has the capacity to mine the straight even if they chose to especially with us having such a heavy force presence in the region.
I think the Maduro op as well as the Iran op are all directed ultimately at China.
I’m not even sure Iran has the capacity to mine the straight even if they chose to especially with us having such a heavy force presence in the region.
I think the Maduro op as well as the Iran op are all directed ultimately at China.
Posted on 3/2/26 at 8:40 pm to idlewatcher
This was no coincidence.
Posted on 3/2/26 at 8:51 pm to idlewatcher
Venezuela doesn't have the infrastructure to increase oil production, everything needs to be rebuilt
Posted on 3/2/26 at 9:47 pm to idlewatcher
quote:
If Iran was successful in laying a minefield, that would choke off 30% or so of global trade.
Sort of hard to mine a body of water when every single vessel that attempts to leave port ends up as an oil slick.
Posted on 3/2/26 at 10:02 pm to idlewatcher
Wrong. Venezuela cannot match the amount of crude oil, refined products and LNG going through the Strait of Hormuz. Not even close.
The price of oil has been undervalued due a foreseen glut that never happened.
The price of oil has been undervalued due a foreseen glut that never happened.
Posted on 3/2/26 at 10:54 pm to idlewatcher
Yes that is obvious and not a hot take.
This systematically cripples Russia who purchases many of their drones from Iran and is their ally. It also cuts China’s oil supply by eliminating VZ and Iranian oil and is a major impact to their heavy investment in Iran with the Belt and Road Initiative. They signed a 25 year agreement in 2021 and would have heavy influence in the region This also takes ammunitions away from Ukraine that would have otherwise been sold to them, now to be used in Iran.
The hot take is I think this accelerates the peace deal between Ukraine and Russia as both are heavily affected it different ways in regards to their war. China also sees our capabilities in their quest to take over Taiwan and the Belt and Road Initiative takes a hit.
This systematically cripples Russia who purchases many of their drones from Iran and is their ally. It also cuts China’s oil supply by eliminating VZ and Iranian oil and is a major impact to their heavy investment in Iran with the Belt and Road Initiative. They signed a 25 year agreement in 2021 and would have heavy influence in the region This also takes ammunitions away from Ukraine that would have otherwise been sold to them, now to be used in Iran.
The hot take is I think this accelerates the peace deal between Ukraine and Russia as both are heavily affected it different ways in regards to their war. China also sees our capabilities in their quest to take over Taiwan and the Belt and Road Initiative takes a hit.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 4:45 am to honeybadger07
quote:
This systematically cripples Russia who purchases many of their drones from Iran and is their ally. It also cuts China’s oil supply by eliminating VZ and Iranian oil and is a major imp
I’d use the oil and food as leverage to lower our national debt at this point.
As firmly as they object to this the more firmly I withhold natural resources.
Shipping lanes check
Oil supply check
Food check
Water check
Also, the pawn you have going up the right side of the board to get that queen has been shot as well.
Check mate.
This post was edited on 3/3/26 at 4:47 am
Posted on 3/3/26 at 4:57 am to idlewatcher
It’s a good theory if you don’t know the relative production of Venezuela, the amount of oil that goes through the Strait, the chemical difference between those oils, and the impossibility of ramping up Venezuelan oil production in time for that. Other than those things, it’s a good theory.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 5:36 am to Penrod
quote:
It’s a good theory if you don’t know the relative production of Venezuela, the amount of oil that goes through the Strait, the chemical difference between those oils, and the impossibility of ramping up Venezuelan oil production in time for that. Other than those things, it’s a good theory.
No need to be a smart arse.
1. Business owner in the industry
2. I ship through SOH often - some of the very products you use on a daily basis
3. VZ, US and the world have a joint interest in not only boosting VZ production but also in upgrading the infrastructure. PDVSA has been severely minimized as a result.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 5:41 am to idlewatcher
Venezuela and Iran are major suppliers of oil to China.
Just do the math …..
Posted on 3/3/26 at 5:46 am to idlewatcher
quote:
VZ, US and the world have a joint interest in not only boosting VZ production but also in upgrading the infrastructure. PDVSA has been severely minimized as a result.
But have you any idea what is involved in boosting Venezuelan production? It will take billions of dollars and several years to get appreciable production increases from Venezuela. How in the world could that help with this Iranian imbroglio that will be over and forgotten in six months?
Posted on 3/3/26 at 5:49 am to idlewatcher
How is Iran able to blockade the strait if their navy is sunk and air force is grounded or destroyed?
Are they threatening the use of suicide drones against oil tankers?
I don't believe they installed mine fields prior to hostilities.
Are they threatening the use of suicide drones against oil tankers?
I don't believe they installed mine fields prior to hostilities.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 6:45 am to Penrod
Dealing with Venezuela helped in a number of ways, illegals migrating/ drugs/ oil going to Cuba & China. Coupled with Iran longtime issues of support to terrorist as well as directly stirring up themselves, oil to China, threats of nuclear ambitions are being addressed in a big way. OMB pulls this off he can make his own statutes to place around DC and schools while he is alive.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 6:49 am to Victor R Franko
They have mined the Straits before. It’ll be a good idea for them to start today again as this will provide info and practice for drone operators to test their skills on smaller boats
Posted on 3/3/26 at 8:54 am to Nosevens
100% good post. It just had no effect on delayed Persian Gulf oil.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 9:01 am to idlewatcher
and one of trumps buddies bought the citgo oil refinery at firesale price. he will make a fortune off this. the elite seem to know things in advance.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 9:50 am to Penrod
Effects of Iran oil is short term and hopefully longer term is that while still unmolested refining capacity the revenue doesn’t find its way into terrorist coffers. As stated it deliveries to China which reportedly it’s 55% of it’s oil imports from Iran being disrupted seems a big bargaining chip, unless like Japan leading up to WW11 decides differently
Posted on 3/3/26 at 9:52 am to idlewatcher
Newbie, here,
But how easy is it to clear mines, these days?
I am thinking air and underwater drones are the new mines of the 2020s.
But how easy is it to clear mines, these days?
I am thinking air and underwater drones are the new mines of the 2020s.
Posted on 3/3/26 at 10:00 am to Penrod
quote:
But have you any idea what is involved in boosting Venezuelan production? It will take billions of dollars and several years to get appreciable production increases from Venezuela. How in the world could that help with this Iranian imbroglio that will be over and forgotten in six months?
I won't get into a pissing match with you, but yes I do b/c I come from a long line of oil men - successful oil men at that - two of which I'm certain you've read about.
There are in fact ways to increase production right out of the gate but I do agree, it will take tons of money. Once Delcy exacts some interest from the majors, it will be game on. Maduro unfortunately was more interested in peddling illicit narcotics than taking care of his people.
Current production is just shy of 1M bbl/day but UP from half that in '20. Hope Delcy can steer this ship the right way and I believe she will.
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