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This ceasefire may end being more strategic to buy time than anything else.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 4/9/26 at 8:51 pm
It’s highly likely that Trump decided to throw a Hail Mary pass at diplomacy because the pace of the war was about to slow down considerably. Here is what I mean by that.
1st Both man and machine has been pushed hard the past 6 weeks. It’s probably time for most of the aircraft being used to undergo some heavy maintenance. Engine overhauls and fixing other major problems. That takes some time.
2nd If we need to replenish any ordinance now would be a good time to bring it from the States. Things like interceptor missiles for both us and our Middle East allies. Now is an excellent time to bring them in and distribute them before any fighting starts up again.
3rd. The Navy is awaiting 2 key assets to arrive in the region. The USS Boxer carrying another Marine Expeditionary Unit and the George H W Bush carrier group. I have been doing some reading on the subject and the Boxer is the key piece here. We really can’t force the Strait of Hormuz open without it.
Even though we currently have the USS Tripoli in the region it deploys its Marines by air using the MV 22 Osprey. The Navy has sacrificed the well deck on the Tripoli to carry more aircraft and add some other things. The Marines of the 31st MEU I think it is would be able to attack and then leave. It would be hard for them to hold onto territory because resupply would be limited to the number or sorties the Ospreys could manage in a day plus it would limit the type of equipment these Marines can use to what the Ospreys and maybe certain helicopters could carry weight wise. They would be very vulnerable should they run into a force with heavy equipment or heavy artillery. They would be more likely to just hit and get.
Enter the Boxer. The Boxer has a traditional well deck that can launch the landing hovercraft with the big cushion. Some of those things can carry a lot of heavy equipment at once. Since they have the cushion on the bottom and kind of hover above the water that makes them a lot less vulnerable to mines. With the hovercraft that the USS Boxer brings to the table then the Marines can go in and take territory and hold it because they have a way to bring it a lot of heavy equipment at once.
With a 2 week ceasefire that gives the U.S. a chance to get all these things done. Until the Boxer shows up though I doubt the Strait of Hormuz can be opened Militarily.
Sorry but I have back and neck issues which leaves me with insomnia most nights. I read a lot of online articles and watch a lot of videos and documentaries on a variety of subjects lol.
1st Both man and machine has been pushed hard the past 6 weeks. It’s probably time for most of the aircraft being used to undergo some heavy maintenance. Engine overhauls and fixing other major problems. That takes some time.
2nd If we need to replenish any ordinance now would be a good time to bring it from the States. Things like interceptor missiles for both us and our Middle East allies. Now is an excellent time to bring them in and distribute them before any fighting starts up again.
3rd. The Navy is awaiting 2 key assets to arrive in the region. The USS Boxer carrying another Marine Expeditionary Unit and the George H W Bush carrier group. I have been doing some reading on the subject and the Boxer is the key piece here. We really can’t force the Strait of Hormuz open without it.
Even though we currently have the USS Tripoli in the region it deploys its Marines by air using the MV 22 Osprey. The Navy has sacrificed the well deck on the Tripoli to carry more aircraft and add some other things. The Marines of the 31st MEU I think it is would be able to attack and then leave. It would be hard for them to hold onto territory because resupply would be limited to the number or sorties the Ospreys could manage in a day plus it would limit the type of equipment these Marines can use to what the Ospreys and maybe certain helicopters could carry weight wise. They would be very vulnerable should they run into a force with heavy equipment or heavy artillery. They would be more likely to just hit and get.
Enter the Boxer. The Boxer has a traditional well deck that can launch the landing hovercraft with the big cushion. Some of those things can carry a lot of heavy equipment at once. Since they have the cushion on the bottom and kind of hover above the water that makes them a lot less vulnerable to mines. With the hovercraft that the USS Boxer brings to the table then the Marines can go in and take territory and hold it because they have a way to bring it a lot of heavy equipment at once.
With a 2 week ceasefire that gives the U.S. a chance to get all these things done. Until the Boxer shows up though I doubt the Strait of Hormuz can be opened Militarily.
Sorry but I have back and neck issues which leaves me with insomnia most nights. I read a lot of online articles and watch a lot of videos and documentaries on a variety of subjects lol.
13
Posted on 4/9/26 at 8:53 pm to RollingwiththeTide
I think this cease fire gives Iran enough rope to hang itself with the "international community".
If/when they reneg on it or want crazy concessions like the ability to enrich uranium, then we have carte blanche to finish the job.
The "transit fee" is already pissing enough countries off to get them to join the fight.
If/when they reneg on it or want crazy concessions like the ability to enrich uranium, then we have carte blanche to finish the job.
The "transit fee" is already pissing enough countries off to get them to join the fight.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 8:53 pm to RollingwiththeTide
I just hope they arent able to replenish cheap drones faster than our $$$missiles.
Hopefully the ceasefire took their capability out.
Hopefully the ceasefire took their capability out.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 8:54 pm to RollingwiththeTide
quote:
buy time than anything else
Yea everyone knows this already. Trump has been begging Europe for either ships and help or hes going to try and rob them of their missile defenses.
This isnt some big mystery and Iran will be doing its prep and reloading as well.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 8:57 pm to RollingwiththeTide
great post...makes a lot of sense
Posted on 4/9/26 at 8:58 pm to RollingwiththeTide
Ah least you forget, if a 2 week period holds tight you can bet hard currency that Iran’s irgc and Muslim leadership will bet spotted and followed for delivery services
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:01 pm to dstone12
quote:key word here is “replenish”
I just hope they arent able to replenish cheap drones faster than our $$$missiles.
they aren’t manufacturing anything - only place they can get them is from Russia or China — certainly possible, but hopefully we can stop that
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:02 pm to RollingwiththeTide
quote:
Sorry but I have back and neck issues which leaves me with insomnia most nights
That sucks, hope you can find some relief
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:09 pm to BlackPawnMartyr
quote:
try and rob them of their missile defenses.
Us getting out of Europe would not be robbing Europe of their missile defense
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:11 pm to RollingwiththeTide
Midterms be damned. Finish the job.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:12 pm to RollingwiththeTide
quote:
The War Powers Act of 1973 is a federal law designed to limit the U.S. president's ability to engage military forces without congressional approval.
It requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of military action and restricts armed forces from remaining in action for more than 60 days without congressional authorization.
Would the ceasefire, act as a mechanism that interrupts the consecutive days of action, and allows the 60 day clock to begin again?
quote:
The US-Iran conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, has been ongoing for 42 days as of April 10, 2026.
If the ceasefire holds past the 60 day mark, and Iran attacks the scaling down US forces, can the 60 day clock begin again?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:16 pm to tiger789
I left out a couple of key pieces to shorten the post. What we are likely to see is the Marines testing out its new pet theory called Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations or EABO.
Basically what it is the Marines will go in and either take an Island or set up on some vacant spot on an enemy coast. Once they establish a base they will bring in HIMARS and other stuff. They will also establish an airbase to service helicopters and the F-35 B variant that has the vertical takeoff capability. The F-35 B and Cobra attack Helicopters will be able to land and get service without having to fly all the way back to the ship for service.
Once the Marines has done this part and secured the area to the point that nothing can come into the Strait of Hormuz and attack the ships or lay mines. The Navy will then come in and remove the Strait of the mines. The Navy does not use divers to remove mines anymore. They have several pieces of tech they do it with depending on the type of mine.
Basically what it is the Marines will go in and either take an Island or set up on some vacant spot on an enemy coast. Once they establish a base they will bring in HIMARS and other stuff. They will also establish an airbase to service helicopters and the F-35 B variant that has the vertical takeoff capability. The F-35 B and Cobra attack Helicopters will be able to land and get service without having to fly all the way back to the ship for service.
Once the Marines has done this part and secured the area to the point that nothing can come into the Strait of Hormuz and attack the ships or lay mines. The Navy will then come in and remove the Strait of the mines. The Navy does not use divers to remove mines anymore. They have several pieces of tech they do it with depending on the type of mine.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:16 pm to RollingwiththeTide
quote:
1st Both man and machine has been pushed hard the past 6 weeks. It’s probably time for most of the aircraft being used to undergo some heavy maintenance. Engine overhauls and fixing other major problems. That takes some time.
This is laughable. Insulting even. Sure, it helps, but if you think they gave this any consideration then you must not think much of our forces.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:18 pm to BigTigerJoe
That is a good question but I do not know.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:22 pm to RollingwiththeTide
Upvoted OP.
Excellent post.
Hope you find some relief from the neck and back issues.
Excellent post.
Hope you find some relief from the neck and back issues.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:22 pm to castorinho
Since our military is waiting for all these other assets to arrive in the region then would it not make sense to slow down or pause and give these Pilots some rest and allow some of the heavier time consuming maintenance be done on these planes?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:23 pm to BigTigerJoe
quote:
If the ceasefire holds past the 60 day mark, and Iran attacks the scaling down US forces, can the 60 day clock begin again?
I am not trying to be flippant, but it does not matter. Who will enforce anything?
You will have Democrats and maybe a few Republicans screaming "illegal war" and Republicans saying Trump is Commander-in-Chief. Courts are not going to get involved - this is a fight between 2 branches. If Congress reaches a consensus, they can defund the military - but who thinks that will happen?
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:23 pm to scrooster
Lol I gave up on that a long time ago. I’m getting to damn old unfortunately.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:29 pm to JimEverett
quote:
I am not trying to be flippant, but it does not matter. Who will enforce anything?
I am still curious about how the act is written and how it can be interpreted.
Posted on 4/9/26 at 9:32 pm to BigTigerJoe
That is what I mean - there is no definitive interpretation because the issue cannot be solved when a President does not comply with the terms of the statute.
But there has been some argument, theoretical in my opinion, that the War Powers Act itself in unconstitutional - which might be along the lines of what you are interested in.
But there has been some argument, theoretical in my opinion, that the War Powers Act itself in unconstitutional - which might be along the lines of what you are interested in.
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