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Rational NY6 Bowl Discussion
Posted on 11/25/18 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 11/25/18 at 2:23 pm
Here’s the facts: There are 12 spots available in NY6 bowls, 4 in the CFB playoffs, 8 in the four remaining NY6 bowls (Sugar, Rose, Peach, Fiesta)
I believe there are 9 teams that will make the playoffs or other NY6 bowls ahead of us no matter what happens next weekend:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. UCF (or other Group of 5 champion)
8. PAC 12 Champ (Washington/Utah)
9. Michigan
That means there are 3 remaining spots.
There are three teams that, like us, are done playing. Each of these teams could be ranked higher than us and take up one of the last remaining spots. They are:
1. Florida
2. Penn State
3. Washington State
There are three other teams that could get in with an automatic bid by winning their conference title, otherwise they won’t get in:
1. Texas (with win over OU)
2. Northwestern (with win over Ohio State)
3. Pittsburgh (with win over Clemson)
The CFB rankings on Tuesday will tell us where we stand compared to Washington State, Florida, and Penn State. If we are ranked below all 3, our NY6 hopes are over. Depending where we fall determines how many conference championship upsets can occur without knocking us back down to the Citrus, Outback, etc.
My gut feeling (and based on the committee’s love for us this year) is that we stay ahead of Washington State and Penn State in the CFP, none of the above upsets occur, and we end up in the Peach or Fiesta bowl.
I believe there are 9 teams that will make the playoffs or other NY6 bowls ahead of us no matter what happens next weekend:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. UCF (or other Group of 5 champion)
8. PAC 12 Champ (Washington/Utah)
9. Michigan
That means there are 3 remaining spots.
There are three teams that, like us, are done playing. Each of these teams could be ranked higher than us and take up one of the last remaining spots. They are:
1. Florida
2. Penn State
3. Washington State
There are three other teams that could get in with an automatic bid by winning their conference title, otherwise they won’t get in:
1. Texas (with win over OU)
2. Northwestern (with win over Ohio State)
3. Pittsburgh (with win over Clemson)
The CFB rankings on Tuesday will tell us where we stand compared to Washington State, Florida, and Penn State. If we are ranked below all 3, our NY6 hopes are over. Depending where we fall determines how many conference championship upsets can occur without knocking us back down to the Citrus, Outback, etc.
My gut feeling (and based on the committee’s love for us this year) is that we stay ahead of Washington State and Penn State in the CFP, none of the above upsets occur, and we end up in the Peach or Fiesta bowl.
10
Posted on 11/25/18 at 2:24 pm to rustontiger7
Who has Penn state even beaten that has a pulse?
Posted on 11/25/18 at 2:25 pm to rustontiger7
Agreed. I’m thinking peach, but hoping for fiesta.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 2:25 pm to rustontiger7
We had two one-possession losses and a loss to BAMA. More quality wins over both PSU and WSU.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 9:31 pm to rpg37
Agreed. I think we should stay above them both. Tuesday night we will know where we stand.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 9:39 pm to rustontiger7
quote:
My gut feeling (and based on the committee’s love for us this year) is that we stay ahead of Washington State and Penn State in the CFP
I certainly think LSU is better than Wazzu and Penn State but I have no clue where LSU ends up being ranked. Good post.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 10:59 pm to JustLivinTheDream
Good post but 1 error...
UT or WVU will be in the Sugar if OU gets in the playoff. Sugar has a Big 12 tie in now. So there’s 1 less spot available.
I also think LSU is above Penn St and WSU and should go to Fiesta or Peach as long as Clemson or Ohio St don’t lose.
UT or WVU will be in the Sugar if OU gets in the playoff. Sugar has a Big 12 tie in now. So there’s 1 less spot available.
I also think LSU is above Penn St and WSU and should go to Fiesta or Peach as long as Clemson or Ohio St don’t lose.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 11:02 pm to covtgr
I though they were supposed to get rid of those stupid tie-ins soon... it’s absurd that we can never go to the Rose Bowl.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 11:04 pm to rustontiger7
I would include Florida in that list of 9.
as long as that aren't any upsets this weekend, I think the last 2 spots go to a combination of LSU, PSU, and WSU.
as long as that aren't any upsets this weekend, I think the last 2 spots go to a combination of LSU, PSU, and WSU.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 11:04 pm to rustontiger7
in 2015 Ole miss went to Sugar with 3 losses. and auburn went last year with 3 losses and the year before I believe they went with 3 losses.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 11:05 pm to rustontiger7
According to Shea, there's still a chance for a NY6 bid.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 11:17 pm to covtgr
That’s correct with the tie-ins to Sugar and Rose bowl there are only two bowl games/4 spots for the committee to select, those being the Peach and Fiesta. I believe Florida, UCF and Michigan take 3 of those spots leaving 1 spot left. I believe it will come down to LSU or WSU taking the last spot and it will be in the Fiesta.
Posted on 11/25/18 at 11:39 pm to LSUJCC
Florida will be ranked ahead of us and when Texas beats OU they will get in. Leaves one spot for Penn st, Wash st or us. I think we have better resumes than the other two, but does the committee send 4 SEC teams to NY6?
Let the conference politics begin.....
Let the conference politics begin.....
Posted on 11/25/18 at 11:45 pm to FriscoTiger
As for WSU vs LSU, we were ahead of them last week. Based on WSU getting mauled at home vs UW and our circus act loss on the road...I don’t see how that rank placement changes.
Penn St or LSU seems like a no brainer. Both 3 loss teams. They have nothing approaching our win against UGA. Or even Miss St.
Penn St or LSU seems like a no brainer. Both 3 loss teams. They have nothing approaching our win against UGA. Or even Miss St.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 12:22 am to rustontiger7
I’m just going to assume that we lose this toss up too. Anything that could possibly go against us, will.
On a side note, the Sugar Bowl is contractually obliged to have a Big 12 v SEC matchup. So if OU gets in to the playoff, they have to take Texas or WVU, right?
On a side note, the Sugar Bowl is contractually obliged to have a Big 12 v SEC matchup. So if OU gets in to the playoff, they have to take Texas or WVU, right?
Posted on 11/26/18 at 1:49 am to rustontiger7
If strength-of-schedule means ANYTHING, then LSU gets a NY6 pick.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 2:14 am to TexasTiger08
So far the committee has been very kind to us... maybe they’ll count us as 11-2 since we won twice 
Posted on 11/26/18 at 2:37 am to rustontiger7
It's going to be Peach, Fiesta, Citrus, or Outback. I've seen projections all over the place lol.
Posted on 11/26/18 at 2:40 am to abellsujr
quote:
It's going to be Peach, Fiesta, Citrus, or Outback
Yep. Hopefully Peach/Fiesta vs. Michigan/Wazzou
After that, Outback because I think everyone in Louisiana can get a free Bloomin Onion that night if we win (not kidding i did it in 2014).
Posted on 11/26/18 at 3:05 am to abellsujr
I doubt the citrus takes us 3 consecutive years.
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