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re: College Baseball Top 8 National Seed Picture
Posted on 5/20/25 at 11:35 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Posted on 5/20/25 at 11:35 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:People keep saying "the polls mean nothing"... technically they don't, but it's all the same concept.quote:
but how do we go from the unanimous #1 team going into the final week, win 2/3 on the road.....and drop to the #9 spot?
The polls have absolutely nothing to do with the national seeds. And we haven't dropped to the 9 spot in anything.
The polls are people's perception of who the best teams are.
The seeding for the tournament (especially A: hosts, and B: national seeds) are the committee's perception of who the best teams are, with the added provision that they are capable of hosting a regional.
For perspective, "the polls" don't have anything to do with the NCAA Basketball tournament either. But just imagine, the team that finished the regular season ranked #1 in all "the polls"... and the tourney drops them to a 3 seed. That's the equivalent of moving LSU below the Super Regional host.
The baseball tourney is not like the football playoff, where conference winners were mandated to get the byes (thus Boise was technically "top 4"). Lots of teams have been national seeds despite not winning conference, either regular season or tournament. It's closer to a poll concept- who's the best, based on speculation and projection, not just winning on the field.
1
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:34 pm to Scoob
quote:
The polls are people's perception of who the best teams are.
Exactly. And the committee may have some perception of who the best teams mixed in are, but they will also rely heavily on other factors that pollsters are not.
The polls sometimes shift in a vacuum. Of you were number 3 and you swept someone, number 2 dropped one game to a weak opponent, number 1 lost a series... #3 is now #1 and everybody else moves down. The committee is looked at as a whole.
This post was edited on 5/20/25 at 12:36 pm
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:44 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
Let's play out a scenario for the polls matter people.
UGA makes it to Vandy game, wins a close one. Then goes on to play Texas and beats them in another close game.
On the other side, Auburn beats LSU handily, then goes on to beat Arkansas and UGA.
Over in the ACC FSU and UNC advance to the finals, and UNC wins.
Oregon rolls through the Big 10 championship.
Let's say the pollsters react to that by going...
1. UNC
2. Texas
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. UGA
6. Oregon
7. FSU
8. Oregon St.
9. LSU
Would LSU now be viewed as being undeserving of a national seed? Or would the polls just be total BS?
UGA makes it to Vandy game, wins a close one. Then goes on to play Texas and beats them in another close game.
On the other side, Auburn beats LSU handily, then goes on to beat Arkansas and UGA.
Over in the ACC FSU and UNC advance to the finals, and UNC wins.
Oregon rolls through the Big 10 championship.
Let's say the pollsters react to that by going...
1. UNC
2. Texas
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. UGA
6. Oregon
7. FSU
8. Oregon St.
9. LSU
Would LSU now be viewed as being undeserving of a national seed? Or would the polls just be total BS?
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:50 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
Yall are really unnecessarily worrying about this.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:53 pm to TigerCub
quote:
Yall are really unnecessarily worrying about this.
Worrying? It's a topic to discuss on a discussion board. But you are correct, I should know better than try to have a normal discussion with a board made up of 75% morons. Admins just go ahead and anchor, I won't keep tracking the info in here.
This post was edited on 5/20/25 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 5/20/25 at 12:58 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Let's play out a scenario for the polls matter people.
They are a top 8 seed. No need for scenarios and what ifs.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 2:01 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Worrying? It's a topic to discuss on a discussion board. But you are correct, I should know better than try to have a normal discussion with a board made up of 75% morons. Admins just go ahead and anchor, I won't keep tracking the info in here.
Not getting on you I appreciate all the work you put into this. It's great for discussion. It just seems there's a lot of hand ringing over the very miniscule possibility that we don't get a top 8 seed. Last year people were saying we needed to win 2-3 games in Hoover to cement a bid to a regional when it turns out we probably didn't need to win any.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 2:35 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Let's play out a scenario for the polls matter people.
UGA makes it to Vandy game, wins a close one. Then goes on to play Texas and beats them in another close game.
On the other side, Auburn beats LSU handily, then goes on to beat Arkansas and UGA.
quote:So, do you really think the pollsters, who have kept LSU @ #1 the past couple weeks despite single losses in those series, are going to drop them from #1 to #9, for going 0-1 in a conference tourney?
Let's say the pollsters react to that by going...
1. UNC
2. Texas
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. UGA
6. Oregon
7. FSU
8. Oregon St.
9. LSU
I don't
Posted on 5/20/25 at 2:36 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Let's say the pollsters react to that by going...
By having Oregon St jump LSU while they sit at home all week?
Posted on 5/20/25 at 2:37 pm to Scoob
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/20/25 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 5/20/25 at 3:15 pm to Tammany Tom
quote:
The conference tournaments are meaningless in determining top seeds. The top 16 seeds are set already. The only meaningful thing conference tournaments add is to a team that has a really bad record and needs to win their conference tournament in order to make the ncaa tournament.
This is 100% false.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 3:39 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
So, let me ask you this, since we're discussing things:
Why do you think every single poll, none of which are based in Louisiana to the best of my knowledge, is so biased towards LSU that they would rank LSU #1, when LSU is apparently (in your opinion) on the bubble for a national seed?
And just to be clear, LSU's been ranked #1 the final 2 weeks, which have both included weekend losses (but series wins). There are many teams hotter than LSU currently, so we have to assume the ranking is for the whole season, not "how they're playing at the moment".
Conversely, if LSU does merit that ranking, why do you think the selection committee is so biased AGAINST LSU, that they would ignore the opinions of such polls, who are knowledgeable in college ball, that they would drop them from a national seed (in other words, out of the Top Eight)?
Hell, how many times has a #1 team not been a national seed?
Why do you think every single poll, none of which are based in Louisiana to the best of my knowledge, is so biased towards LSU that they would rank LSU #1, when LSU is apparently (in your opinion) on the bubble for a national seed?
And just to be clear, LSU's been ranked #1 the final 2 weeks, which have both included weekend losses (but series wins). There are many teams hotter than LSU currently, so we have to assume the ranking is for the whole season, not "how they're playing at the moment".
Conversely, if LSU does merit that ranking, why do you think the selection committee is so biased AGAINST LSU, that they would ignore the opinions of such polls, who are knowledgeable in college ball, that they would drop them from a national seed (in other words, out of the Top Eight)?
Hell, how many times has a #1 team not been a national seed?
Posted on 5/20/25 at 5:13 pm to Scoob
Ok, because I am off today, and have nothing better to do 
College baseball went to the Super Regional format in 1999, originally listing the top 8 seeds (would host Supers). They now rank all 16, but we're discussing 1-8.
Wikipedia has listings of college baseball polls, going back way before 1999. It appears they list it by week (regular season), then once after conference tourney, then once after the CWS is over (with the national champ at #1).
I'm gonna look at who was #1 after the final week (before conference tournaments), and see where they were seeded in the playoffs.
1999
Coach's Poll, Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball= Miami, unanimous #1.
Miami was #1 national seed, won title
2000
Looks like LSU and Georgia Tech at various polls. Not sure if LSU was #1 final regular season, or if it was Georgia Tech (the poll page is fuzzy on that). LSU as low as #4.
South Carolina was 1 seed, LSU was 2 seed, Georgia Tech 3 seed.
LSU won title.
2001
Miami #1 regular season, #2 seed (Cal State Fullerton was #1 seed). Miami won title
2002- looks like Fla State was #1 at end of season. #1 seed. Texas won title
2003- likes like Rice and Fla State were 1-2 in the 2 polls I could find, regular season. Fla State #1, Rice #5 (LSU #2) seeds. Rice won title.
2004
Texas and Miami are ranked #1, Miami in more. Texas is 1 seed, Miami is 2 seed.
Cal State Fullerton won title
2005
Tulane #1, and is 1 seed. Texas wins title
2006
Rice ranked #1. Rice is 2 seed. Oregon State wins title
2007
Looks like Rice and Vanderbilt #1. Vanderbilt 1 seed, Rice 2 seed. Oregon State won title
more....
College baseball went to the Super Regional format in 1999, originally listing the top 8 seeds (would host Supers). They now rank all 16, but we're discussing 1-8.
Wikipedia has listings of college baseball polls, going back way before 1999. It appears they list it by week (regular season), then once after conference tourney, then once after the CWS is over (with the national champ at #1).
I'm gonna look at who was #1 after the final week (before conference tournaments), and see where they were seeded in the playoffs.
1999
Coach's Poll, Baseball America, Collegiate Baseball= Miami, unanimous #1.
Miami was #1 national seed, won title
2000
Looks like LSU and Georgia Tech at various polls. Not sure if LSU was #1 final regular season, or if it was Georgia Tech (the poll page is fuzzy on that). LSU as low as #4.
South Carolina was 1 seed, LSU was 2 seed, Georgia Tech 3 seed.
LSU won title.
2001
Miami #1 regular season, #2 seed (Cal State Fullerton was #1 seed). Miami won title
2002- looks like Fla State was #1 at end of season. #1 seed. Texas won title
2003- likes like Rice and Fla State were 1-2 in the 2 polls I could find, regular season. Fla State #1, Rice #5 (LSU #2) seeds. Rice won title.
2004
Texas and Miami are ranked #1, Miami in more. Texas is 1 seed, Miami is 2 seed.
Cal State Fullerton won title
2005
Tulane #1, and is 1 seed. Texas wins title
2006
Rice ranked #1. Rice is 2 seed. Oregon State wins title
2007
Looks like Rice and Vanderbilt #1. Vanderbilt 1 seed, Rice 2 seed. Oregon State won title
more....
Posted on 5/20/25 at 5:26 pm to Scoob
2008
Miami ranked #1, Miami is 1 seed. Fresno State wins title
2009
looks like LSU ranked #1, is 3 seed. LSU wins title
2010
looks like Arizona State and Virginia are ranked #1.
Arizona St 1 seed, Virginia 5 seed. South Carolina wins title
2011
South Carolina, Florida, Virginia seem to be ranked #1
Viriginia 1 seed, Florida 2 seed, So Carolina 4 seed. South Carolina wins title
2012
Florida #1, Florida is 1 seed. Arizona wins title
more...
Miami ranked #1, Miami is 1 seed. Fresno State wins title
2009
looks like LSU ranked #1, is 3 seed. LSU wins title
2010
looks like Arizona State and Virginia are ranked #1.
Arizona St 1 seed, Virginia 5 seed. South Carolina wins title
2011
South Carolina, Florida, Virginia seem to be ranked #1
Viriginia 1 seed, Florida 2 seed, So Carolina 4 seed. South Carolina wins title
2012
Florida #1, Florida is 1 seed. Arizona wins title
more...
Posted on 5/20/25 at 5:29 pm to Scoob
ok getting tired of doing this
but so far, the point is: every #1 ranked team has been a national seed. Some are as low as 5 or so, but they are seeded in the top 8 (national seed).
but so far, the point is: every #1 ranked team has been a national seed. Some are as low as 5 or so, but they are seeded in the top 8 (national seed).
Posted on 5/20/25 at 5:36 pm to SouthEndzoneTiger
quote:
This is 100% false.
This is actually used to be the case. But I think everyone caught on and the committee changed their stance a few years back.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 6:31 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Here's a list of LSU's main competition in a race for a top 8 national seed.
There is no competition. We all agree the SEC is getting a min of 4 teams as national seeds. Show me when someone from the SEC won 19 games or more and got leapfrogged by an SEC team with less wins for a national seed.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 10:01 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
This is a lot of work for nothing. We’ll be a top 8 seed.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 11:04 pm to dukeg7213
quote:
By my calculations with the information you provided, there is no argument that can be made against the Louisiana State University Fighting Tigers Baseball Team to not be a national seed
With the new Super-League Conferences with absurd number of teams I think the number of wins will matter way less than they did in the past. IMO, the number of conference wins has become meaningless. It’s going to be about who did you play and who did you beat. The committee may also start to look at when and where did you play each team.
Posted on 5/20/25 at 11:21 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Quad 1 Wins 1. Texas (17) 2. Auburn (15) 2. Vandy (15) 4. Arkansas (14) 5. LSU (13) 5. FSU (13) 7. UNC (11) 7. Georgia (11) 9. Oregon St (10) 9. Clemson (10) 11. Oregon (9)
I think you have to consider WPct here as with the Q1/2 wins as well. Vandy has 6 more Q1 games than LSU, but is 2-4 in those extra games. 13-10 is better than 15-14. Auburn is 2-2 with their extra games, so that’s a little closer (though they give it back with the 4 Q3/4 losses).
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