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Message
Airlines start reporting tomorrow with Delta releasing before the bell..
Posted on 4/12/23 at 10:54 pm
Posted on 4/12/23 at 10:54 pm
Airline market took a step back today after American lowered its quarterly expectation. AA reports in 7 days, so what was the point of the press release so late? Trying to get ahead of the expected drop?
All of the airlines are trading far below their one year highs.
4/13 Delta
4/18 United
4/20 American
4/25 Jet Blue
4/26 Spirit
4/27 Southwest
4/26-5/1 Frontier
Board’s expectations? I know every flight I have been on recently have been at full capacity. 1Q numbers should be far better than 1Q 2022 across the board but guidance could tank the industry due to the shaky economy.
All of the airlines are trading far below their one year highs.
4/13 Delta
4/18 United
4/20 American
4/25 Jet Blue
4/26 Spirit
4/27 Southwest
4/26-5/1 Frontier
Board’s expectations? I know every flight I have been on recently have been at full capacity. 1Q numbers should be far better than 1Q 2022 across the board but guidance could tank the industry due to the shaky economy.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 7:32 am
6
Posted on 4/12/23 at 11:12 pm to Blutarsky
quote:
I know every flight I have been on recently have been at full capacity.
I have not experienced this same thing on United.
Posted on 4/12/23 at 11:26 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
I have not experienced this same thing on United.
I fly SW mostly and they were full in January and February when I flew to Florida and California.
This post was edited on 4/12/23 at 11:27 pm
Posted on 4/13/23 at 5:22 am to Blutarsky
quote:
I fly SW mostly and they were full in January and February when I flew to Florida and California.
Anecdotal. I flew SW from DC in February and it only had 60 people on the flight.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 6:05 am to Blutarsky
They have been at capacity, but it's because there are less flights than years ago.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 7:11 am to thegreatboudini
quote:
They have been at capacity, but it's because there are less flights than years ago.
bingo
All my international routes are full but there are less options/flights than in the past.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 7:28 am to I Love Bama
Isn’t that better for the bottom line?
Consolidate flights so that you’re carrying full capacity with fewer flights than more flights with open seats?
Consolidate flights so that you’re carrying full capacity with fewer flights than more flights with open seats?
Posted on 4/13/23 at 8:05 am to thegreatboudini
quote:
They have been at capacity, but it's because there are less flights than years ago.
Correct, they have slashed so many routes it’s crazy… wish there was a breakdown on who’s flying bc I can tell you, it’s still a shot ton of the pandemic group that gobbled up cheap tickets (first time flyers and lots of trashy people).
Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:21 am to Suntiger
quote:
Anecdotal. I flew SW from DC in February and it only had 60 people on the flight
That's because it was DC in February.
It is a pretty light load back in 2019 during winter too.Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:22 am to Blutarsky
quote:
Isn’t that better for the bottom line?
Consolidate flights so that you’re carrying full capacity with fewer flights than more flights with open seats?
They learned to do that after the 2009 recession. Flights were full AF before COVID.
So the measure will have to be number of flights offered to get a sense between different time periods.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 9:23 am
Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:27 am to Teddy Ruxpin
I flew back from Minnesota on Tuesday. From Minnesota to Houston had 30 people on it
Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:47 am to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
I have not experienced this same thing on United.
I fly united and im finally starting to see nonpacked planes.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 10:46 am to Blutarsky
quote:
Q numbers should be far better than 1Q 2022 across the board but guidance could tank the industry due to the shaky economy
I was watching a CNBC segment on Delta earlier this morning and they were saying to expect the exact opposite of the above. Q1'23 numbers are going to miss, but the airlines are going to guide for better numbers than expected in Q2'23 and beyond.
ETA - advanced bookings for summer travel are better than the Street is expecting.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 10:49 am
Posted on 4/13/23 at 10:52 am to skewbs
To answer your question more specifically about investing in the airlines, here is my approach. I'm going to monitor the earnings for DAL and SWA and see how the market reacts.
DAL is already down today after reporting, but I'd love to get this stock around $30. That seems to be a pretty good resistance level that it continues to bounce off of (or actually closer to $29).
SWA has some resistance around $30 as well and it is trading close to that level. If there is a small pullback on earnings I will probably buy either at $30 or just above that level.
DAL is already down today after reporting, but I'd love to get this stock around $30. That seems to be a pretty good resistance level that it continues to bounce off of (or actually closer to $29).
SWA has some resistance around $30 as well and it is trading close to that level. If there is a small pullback on earnings I will probably buy either at $30 or just above that level.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 3:35 pm to skewbs
quote:
I was watching a CNBC segment on Delta earlier this morning and they were saying to expect the exact opposite of the above. Q1'23 numbers are going to miss, but the airlines are going to guide for better numbers than expected in Q2'23 and beyond. ETA - advanced bookings for summer travel are better than the Street is expecting.
That is exactly what they said. They also said consumer spending is showing now signs of retreating.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 3:42 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
bingo All my international routes are full but there are less options/flights than in the past.
Delta Q1 2023 had 45% higher revenue than Q1 2022. Profit per occupied seat was 19% than 2022. Guidance for Q2 was super high $2.25 vs street expectation of $1.66. Yes they said summer 2023 will break all time records.
I watch all the tourism related calls revolving around consumer spending. Consistently the CEO’s have said that the consumer is flush with cash and spending money on travel. This narrative that the economy sucks doesn’t play out when the earnings reports come out.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 3:57 pm to Motownsix
quote:
This narrative that the economy sucks doesn’t play out when the earnings reports come out.
It does when you look at Consumer Debt. With credit card rates ranging from 17.6% to 29.24% (currently), that looks like a consumer credit bubble (especially with wages continuing to be well outpaced by inflation).
Posted on 4/13/23 at 7:33 pm to Blutarsky
quote:
All of the airlines are trading far below their one year highs.
4/13 Delta
4/18 United
4/20 American
4/25 Jet Blue
4/26 Spirit
4/27 Southwest
4/26-5/1 Frontier
Safe play suggestion:
Volatility is probably high going into earnings so sell Cash Secured Puts for a nice premium at the price of your choosing.
In this scenario, positive earnings means you simply keep all the premium you received. You made free money.
Negative earnings means you might end up having to buy the shares, and you still collect premium.
I don't see a losing situation here if you like these names.
This post was edited on 4/13/23 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:02 pm to Motownsix
Travel will be the first thing cut when things start tightening. However, people are two years behind on travel…of course they are spending disposable income, savings, or putting it on credit to get out of town.
Posted on 4/13/23 at 9:55 pm to lynxcat
quote:
Anecdotal. I flew SW from DC in February and it only had 60 people on the flight.
I flew DC to NOLA and back about three weeks ago. Same thing here. They asked us to spread out to balance the weight on the plane. Only boarded an and b, no c’s and beyond.
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