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re: Doesn’t seem like people are hurting financially right now
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:23 pm to glorymanutdtiger
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:23 pm to glorymanutdtiger
quote:
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quote:
I sometimes wonder if average household income in Baton Rouge is 200K+
It probably was the last two years with government assistance, PPP monies and EIDL money. That’s all gone now so while they bought those new fancy toys back then cash flow will be cramped now
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Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:48 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
There will be a reckoning with the economy. It’s coming. The Dow will drop down to 20k. This is highly unsustainable and gas prices going higher will exacerbate it.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:57 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
quote:
Doesn’t seem like people are hurting financially right now
It’s called credit… now wait until all the defaults take place.
Already occurring in auto industry.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:59 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
quote:
What gives?
People are borrowing money to go to McDonalds.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 5:04 pm to LSUneaux
quote:
The Dow will drop down to 20k.
What is this number based on?
Posted on 7/10/22 at 5:06 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
What is this number based on?
Nothing. Just a hunch. The market is irrational, sometimes goes down on good news, and up on bad news. I made the number up, but wouldn’t be surprised to see a 33% drop.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 6:32 pm to Im4datigers
quote:So you'd be able to define "lower class" and "wealth gap"?
just an old grey hair banker that’s seen a lot through the years
Posted on 7/10/22 at 7:01 pm to Im4datigers
most people live paycheck to paycheck. most have notes galore. what OP is seeing is fool's gold. It will not last. another reason why most all my stuff has been paid off for 11 years now. home, timeshare and my last 4 vehicles. have 3 now. only notes i carry are for investment properties. income producing debt. actually i will never pay off my EIDL loan. cheap money with a great rate. 
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:09 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
quote:
Gas prices are higher than ever, yet every pump at the Buc-Ee’s is spoken for.
I'll believe gas prices are too high when I no longer see squatted super duties with their tow mirrors extended.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:21 pm to meansonny
quote:
You got a link?
LINK
Just my 2 cents - The shrinking middle class is a huge contributor to the divisiveness in this country, and may be one of the main drivers of our undoing. The whole climate of today is very reminiscent of the 1920s and 30s. People got fed up with being on the short end of the economic stick and there was a rise in populist candidates - Hitler, Mussolini, Franco. We even saw it in the US. Bernie Sanders is basically Huey Long reincarnated.
-Bubble tops in 1929 and 2007
-Economy hits the shits / interest rates drop to zero (1932 and 2008)
-Money Printing (1933 and 2009)
-Subsequent Market Rally (mid 30s and 2010s)
-Central Bank tightens up (1937 and now)
-WW2 and ???
I don't know what's next exactly but I'd be willing to bet it involves a changing of the guards in terms of world economics.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:25 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
Posted on 7/10/22 at 8:42 pm to sawtooth
In log scale seems like the growth rate is pretty flat. Is the credit market simply reaching full maturation?
Posted on 7/10/22 at 9:17 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
All of what you just listed is why this time around will be no different than every time before.
People are going to fall HARD.
People are going to fall HARD.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 10:29 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
quote:
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quote:
Hotel prices are higher than I’ve ever seen, yet all hotels are booked.
Prices are high, but they are not at full capacity. They don’t need to be with such high prices and it even helps them given lower staff numbers.
Most of what you are describing is coming from old bookings, meaning travel planned 3-9 months ago. I expect this to fall of significantly after Labor Day. People are keeping their plans, but starting to get tapped and starting to look at prices as being out of control. It is not sustainable in my opinion.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 2:39 am to Turf Taint
This. All of this.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 9:34 am to FinleyStreet
quote:
The shrinking middle class is a huge contributor to the divisiveness in this country
A "shrinking middle class"???
Shrinking to where? Poverty? Destitution? The lower class?
Another poster cited an unspecified "lower class" and "wealth gap".
This isn't the Poli-Board, so maybe you guys could cite the monetary/economic/financial basis for these claims?
Obviously, given the premise of "shrinkage", the Middle Class cannot any longer, by definition, be comprised of the traditional middle 3 quintiles or the middle 8 deciles. So what is the economic determinant of the middle class? What are the financial demarcations? Once we pin that down, perhaps we can address shrinkage, if any exists.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 11:06 am to Ross
quote:
isn’t consumer debt skyrocketing right now?
Nailed it.
Be sure to touch the bases on your way around the diamond.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 11:50 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
A "shrinking middle class"???
Shrinking to where? Poverty? Destitution? The lower class?
Another poster cited an unspecified "lower class" and "wealth gap".
This isn't the Poli-Board, so maybe you guys could cite the monetary/economic/financial basis for these claims?
Your questions are addressed in the link provided.
Feel free to post any other info you may have regarding the topic.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 1:46 pm to FinleyStreet
Also important to note that the info in your link is from January 2020, things have obviously changed significantly since then, mostly widening the gap.
Covid regulations affected income classes differently - we've all heard how much Bezos, Gates, Buffet, etc increased their wealth. Those at the lower end of the spectrum were more likely to be laid off or lose hours, though they did receive stimulus payments, increased/extended unemployment and various other assistance. Many low earners quit their jobs as they lost childcare and/or had to facilitate virtual learning for their kids and deal with the "Are we on? No wait, we're off" of school quarantines. As recently as January and February of this year, even schools in Texas (which were pretty much done with virtual schooling and quarantines) had to shut down multiple times due to staffing shortages when everyone had Omicron. If you had kids under 10 at that time, it was a constant question of whether or not you could go to work or would be staying home with your kids. If you were in a lower paying job or one that required in-person participation, no "work from home" possible, it may not have made sense to keep your job.
We're 6 months out from that now but it takes time to catch up and some people may not have buckled down and realized "oh crap, I've got go back to work now."
Anecdotally, I have seen a LOT more posts in FB groups of people saying they need to find a 2nd job to bring in extra money within the past month. People are citing increased gas/energy prices and food inflation most often.
Covid regulations affected income classes differently - we've all heard how much Bezos, Gates, Buffet, etc increased their wealth. Those at the lower end of the spectrum were more likely to be laid off or lose hours, though they did receive stimulus payments, increased/extended unemployment and various other assistance. Many low earners quit their jobs as they lost childcare and/or had to facilitate virtual learning for their kids and deal with the "Are we on? No wait, we're off" of school quarantines. As recently as January and February of this year, even schools in Texas (which were pretty much done with virtual schooling and quarantines) had to shut down multiple times due to staffing shortages when everyone had Omicron. If you had kids under 10 at that time, it was a constant question of whether or not you could go to work or would be staying home with your kids. If you were in a lower paying job or one that required in-person participation, no "work from home" possible, it may not have made sense to keep your job.
We're 6 months out from that now but it takes time to catch up and some people may not have buckled down and realized "oh crap, I've got go back to work now."
Anecdotally, I have seen a LOT more posts in FB groups of people saying they need to find a 2nd job to bring in extra money within the past month. People are citing increased gas/energy prices and food inflation most often.
Posted on 7/11/22 at 2:10 pm to St Jean The Baptiste
I would argue the pain hasn't even kicked in. Roads, restaurants, and bars all full and busy 7 days a week in Houston still
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