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re: Will the housing market "crash"?
Posted on 6/5/22 at 6:54 am to SlidellCajun
Posted on 6/5/22 at 6:54 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
This will be an adjustment where parts of the country will feel it and others really won’t.
I agree with this. I think the markets in southern states will be fine like: FL, TN, TX etc. but other markets will definitely start to see some correction.
This post was edited on 6/5/22 at 6:57 am
1
Posted on 6/5/22 at 7:06 am to FLObserver
It has seemed that areas like FL, TN, and TX are the ones with the most inflated markets due to Covid-era WFH moving.
Could be that places where they moved from have less dramatic decreases and the areas where people moved into may feel the crunch.
Like another poster said, we're in unprecedented times. The inflationary policies post-2009 led to a decade of reckless behaviors and the Covid-era behaviors changes really poured 100x uncertainty on top of that powder keg.
Could be that places where they moved from have less dramatic decreases and the areas where people moved into may feel the crunch.
Like another poster said, we're in unprecedented times. The inflationary policies post-2009 led to a decade of reckless behaviors and the Covid-era behaviors changes really poured 100x uncertainty on top of that powder keg.
Posted on 6/5/22 at 7:08 am to SlowFlowPro
Lots of reductions happening in Texas…. Seeing 10-20k price cuts the last few weeks like it’s going out of style. Plus a crap ton more on the market for extended time.
Posted on 6/5/22 at 7:56 am to Lsut81
No let downs here in Most of Fl. as of yet. I just think Fl will always be a final destination for People tired of cold weather places and just looking for a place to relax with all its beaches, golf , fishing etc.. 2007/2008 were the worst i have ever seen down here though. Those were scary times.
Posted on 6/5/22 at 8:05 am to Lsut81
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/6/22 at 11:20 am
Posted on 6/5/22 at 8:14 am to tigersfan1989
I think it's an interesting scenario where everyone who refinanced at 3% will just stay in their house even longer and further contribute to the inventory shortage. If my monthly note was based on house prices 2+ years ago at 3% you wouldn't catch me moving unless life demanded it. Most who did a refi are probably sitting it out for another 5 years due to conventional wisdom on recouping the closing costs
I do see housing prices cool as higher interest rates and inflation affect affordability.
People are bitching about interest rates, but historically 5% is not high, just recency bias has everyone believing that. Easy money is likely dead for a while.
The justification for a crash would only seem to be based on what goes up must come down, but there are no fundamentals pointing to that.
I do see housing prices cool as higher interest rates and inflation affect affordability.
People are bitching about interest rates, but historically 5% is not high, just recency bias has everyone believing that. Easy money is likely dead for a while.
The justification for a crash would only seem to be based on what goes up must come down, but there are no fundamentals pointing to that.
Posted on 6/5/22 at 8:18 am to themasterpater
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/6/22 at 11:19 am
Posted on 6/5/22 at 9:25 am to tigersfan1989
quote:
The question is how much are they going to have to reduce to get a sale? How long do you let a house sit on the market before you reduce your price?
That’s the question, inside the loop within a particular search criteria, what was a total of 20 in any given time, 90% of which on the market for 1-2 days before pending is now 30 or so on the market and most weeks old with reductions.
The last 3-4 weeks has seen a major slowdown in Houston.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 6:07 am to Lsut81
This is a great example of what is occurring:
Posted on 6/9/22 at 6:45 am to Lsut81
Things aren't really slowing down out here in my area of CT. Here is the Zillow chart for our house. It's like watching BTC knowing its going to come crashing down any minute. 
Posted on 6/9/22 at 7:05 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Unlike last housing crisis people can actually afford the homes they are living in
Until millions start losing their jobs within the next year or year and a half.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 7:22 am to TDsngumbo
In my neighborhood, we have more houses on the market for the longest I can recall them sitting in the last two years.
With that said, most of these have been on the market for 10-14 days now whereas they were selling in the first 3 days for well over ask. I consider this being our local market to moving back into equilibrium instead of a crash.
With that said, most of these have been on the market for 10-14 days now whereas they were selling in the first 3 days for well over ask. I consider this being our local market to moving back into equilibrium instead of a crash.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 8:26 am to themasterpater
quote:
I do see housing prices cool as higher interest rates and inflation affect affordability.
No doubt. New mortgages are down month over month and year over year.
What I see is low inventory but those that hit the market sell fast.
The low inventory is indicative of the higher rates as people figure they’ll just stay put rather than sell and take on a higher rate.
This market is very different than 08. The floor fell out on that market. This is a slow adjustment. This market is what markets should do.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 3:12 pm to themasterpater
A correction would be nice considering the way things are. My aunt and uncle bought their home in Houston for $135k in 1996 which would be around $250k today due to inflation. They listed for $665k which is around $300/SF lol. Been on the market for two whole days and they are inundated with requests to tour.
My uncle is a realtor in Katy and he said people are coming in from HCOL areas and wrecking the market here. Even though prices are higher here than usual, they are still cheap compared to your NYCs, Seattle, San Francisco, etc. so they can put in an offer $50k over and still come out ahead.
edit: aunt and uncle sold their house in two days at overasking lol
My uncle is a realtor in Katy and he said people are coming in from HCOL areas and wrecking the market here. Even though prices are higher here than usual, they are still cheap compared to your NYCs, Seattle, San Francisco, etc. so they can put in an offer $50k over and still come out ahead.
edit: aunt and uncle sold their house in two days at overasking lol
This post was edited on 6/10/22 at 8:43 am
Posted on 6/9/22 at 3:25 pm to Areddishfish
I believe you, but what I don’t understand is how are there any people left in Cali at this point?
Posted on 6/9/22 at 3:45 pm to Lsut81
quote:
Lots of reductions happening in Texas…. Seeing 10-20k price cuts the last few weeks like it’s going out of style.
Saw a house near us that was clearly listed overpriced at $750k and after a week on the market slashed to $699k lol
Posted on 6/9/22 at 3:51 pm to Areddishfish
I feel the same as some of you guys. My GUESS is that we don’t see a “crash” similar to what happened in 08. Instead, I think we see a gradual depreciation over a 2-4 year span.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 5:46 pm to MSTiger33
The Z estimate on my house continues to climb - I put almost zero faith in what they say my house is worth - but the fricking county has assessed me for not far from they think it's worth. I have a hard time believing that my house has doubled in value in 5 years.
Posted on 6/9/22 at 8:37 pm to themasterpater
A lot of variables going on that have not happened in 40 years - inflation, high gas prices. DEMs are trying to push for easing of loans to those who cannot afford... sound familiar?
I lean toward yes, but not as bad as 2008 >
I lean toward yes, but not as bad as 2008 >
Posted on 6/10/22 at 8:28 am to themasterpater
quote:
Will the housing market "crash"?
It depends on what you call a crash. People will not be moving out of homes with 2.5% interest. At some point banks, mortgage companies, builders will get desperate and we all know what happens when they can't make money.
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