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re: Are we sure Bryce Harper is that great?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:01 am to Lester Earl
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:01 am to Lester Earl
quote:
If you don't want to look at accumulative stats, over the last 4 years since Lindor has been in the MLB
Lindor OPS+ 119
Harper OPS+ 149
Lindor has a higher WAR than Harper each of the past three seasons, and this year and 2016 aren't even close.
I don't really think it's a knock to say Lindor is a better current player than Harper.
1
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:22 am to RedRifle
He’s pretty much the face of mlb now. That alone is worth a lot to a team
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:23 am to slackster
quote:Right.
Lindor has a higher WAR than Harper each of the past three seasons, and this year and 2016 aren't even close.
I don't really think it's a knock to say Lindor is a better current player than Harper.
Using career WAR is just telling you who has had a better career to this point. It's not really telling you who may be the better player right now or over the past year or 3 years.
Also, LE didn't even use WAR, he only used OPS+, which of course doesn't even factor in defense.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:46 am to shel311
I took a shite side of argument, i just don't think he's worth 30+mil a season.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:53 am to SeeeeK
The reason why this is worth it, is the fact you will get harper in his prime, with the opportunity to sign him again with still some prime years left as well
Peak Age by Skill
Metric Peak Age
Linear Weights---- 29.4
OBP ---- 30.0
SLG ---- 28.6
AVG ---- 28.4
Walk Rate --- 32.3
2B+3B Rate --- 28.3
Home Run Rate --- 29.9
Peak Age by Skill
Metric Peak Age
Linear Weights---- 29.4
OBP ---- 30.0
SLG ---- 28.6
AVG ---- 28.4
Walk Rate --- 32.3
2B+3B Rate --- 28.3
Home Run Rate --- 29.9
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 10:55 am
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:53 am to The Seaward
quote:ok that's cool, but he's no longer that age
And he started playing at an age when most players would be in college or A-ball.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 10:59 am to SeeeeK
quote:
took a shite side of argument, i just don't think he's worth 30+mil a season.
When your “down year” will lead your league in HR, you’re probably worth $30mil
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:08 am to Lester Earl
quote:He has a .3 WAR right now.
When your “down year” will lead your league in HR, you’re probably worth $30mil
We just really don't know if the even years he puts up is the norm going forward or the odd years. Or will he keep flip flopping between great and just pretty good?
It's likely worth the risk, but there's no guarantee he'll play to the level that will make him a good value on his next contract.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:13 am to shel311
Empirical data leans heavily, and I mean heavily, to the notion that his next 4 years will be better than his previous 4 years
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:13 am to SeeeeK
I think Machado gets more money but I don’t think either one gets 400 million. If Harper doesn’t get hot in the next two months he probably still gets 300 million.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:15 am to shel311
His WAR is low cause their defensive metrics say he is bad. No one trusts defensive metrics. He’s been extremely unlucky this year on offense.
When healthy he’s never not been a way above average offensive player. He’s 25. The risk is extremely low
When healthy he’s never not been a way above average offensive player. He’s 25. The risk is extremely low
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:16 am to Lester Earl
I mean it would be an extreme outlier scenario for him to be better at ages 19-25 then he would be at 25-32
All data and evidence would point to his numbers going up, and up significantly
All data and evidence would point to his numbers going up, and up significantly
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 11:17 am
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:21 am to lsupride87
quote:Is it possible that this data doesn't fully apply to him? Meaning, guys aren't only hitting their physical peak around this time, but mentally as well in terms of years spent in the MLB.
Empirical data leans heavily, and I mean heavily, to the notion that his next 4 years will be better than his previous 4 years
He's an outlier in that he's in his 7th season at 25 years old.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:22 am to Lester Earl
quote:Well, if he hasn't been healthy 3 of the past 5 seasons, wouldn't that be a risk?
When healthy he’s never not been a way above average offensive player. He’s 25. The risk is extremely low
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:28 am to shel311
quote:I would think the mental maturity of actual age plays the biggest part
Is it possible that this data doesn't fully apply to him? Meaning, guys aren't only hitting their physical peak around this time, but mentally as well in terms of years spent in the MLB.
He's an outlier in that he's in his 7th season at 25 years old.
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 11:29 am
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:30 am to shel311
Well he’s adjusted his style of play to help reduce injuries and it has worked so far. Running into walls, sliding hard into a base for example were reasons for 2 of his injuries. The reward is worth it. Like Pride said his best years are ahead of him.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:31 am to shel311
quote:its hard to say considering there are so few players in modern baseball who were playing major league baseball before turning 20
Is it possible that this data doesn't fully apply to him? Meaning, guys aren't only hitting their physical peak around this time, but mentally as well in terms of years spent in the MLB.
He's an outlier in that he's in his 7th season at 25 years old.
However, I dont see why that would hurt him. He would be reaching his physical peak while also having 7 full seasons under his belt. I think it would help him as he moves into this stage of his career
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:38 am to WestCoastAg
quote:I didn't say it would hurt him.
However, I dont see why that would hurt him. He would be reaching his physical peak while also having 7 full seasons under his belt. I think it would help him as he moves into this stage of his career
I'm basically saying if most guys are rookies at 22 or 23, yes at 25 or 26 they are hitting that physical peak, but a big part of the peak is that 4 or so years of reps and learning the game, and then in their peak years maybe 5-7, you see them at their best.
I'm just saying Harper's timeline is advanced 3-4 years over those guys, so I'm wondering if it's unfair to expect a similar peak as these other players since he's an outlier and not really comparable to them.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:39 am to shel311
quote:Look at the ages I posted
I'm basically saying if most guys are rookies at 22 or 23, yes at 25 or 26 they are hitting that physical peak, but a big part of the peak is that 4 or so years of reps and learning the game, and then in their peak years maybe 5-7, you see them at their best.
I'm just saying Harper's timeline is advanced 3-4 years over those guys, so I'm wondering if it's unfair to expect a similar peak as these other players since he's an outlier and not really comparable to them.
Even if Harper is 3 years ahead of the average, that still means his peak years are ahead of him
Posted on 7/24/18 at 11:44 am to RedRifle
quote:
all time great money
Does not equal
quote:
all-time great
Right place at right time. Kirk Cousins is certainly not an all time great QB. But he is getting paid like it
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