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re: How is it possible to ban a shift In baseball
Posted on 3/7/22 at 12:48 am to Master of Sinanju
Posted on 3/7/22 at 12:48 am to Master of Sinanju
quote:
The analytics say these guys going for the HR is still better than the sure base hit.
And yet the Astros are one of the most successful teams in baseball and they don't blindly follow analytics.
The problem w/analytics is they are just raw numbers and don't take into account the human element or the current situation in the game. There is no stat that can tell you what to do against a specific pitcher with a specific batter with specific fielders in a specific stadium with specific weather conditions with a specific score in a specific inning during a specific part of the season. A game in nice weather in June isn't the same as a game in the wind in August.
Getting guys on base puts pressure on the pitcher.
Pressure causes mistakes.
Mistakes lead to runs.
A player like Joey Gallo having pretty much zero impact on winning shows that just following analytics w/o question is a losing proposition.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 12:53 am
1
Posted on 3/7/22 at 12:51 am to Dr RC
quote:very true. sometimes we need to just forget the large data set accumulated over years and years and years of numbers and focus on gut and feel and intuition
The problem w/analytics is they are just raw numbers and don't take into account the human element.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 1:21 am to WestCoastAg
quote:
sometimes we need to just forget the large data set accumulated over years and years and years of numbers and focus on gut and feel and intuition
Once again
There is no stat that can tell you what to do against a specific pitcher with a specific batter with specific fielders in a specific stadium with specific weather conditions with a specific score in a specific inning during a specific part of the season. A game in nice weather in June isn't the same as a game in the wind and cold in October.
Those kind of stats simply do not exist.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 1:22 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 1:28 am to Dr RC
and thats why using gut to dictate strategy just makes so much sense
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 1:29 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 1:46 am to WestCoastAg
So I guess we should also just forget about the 100+ years of baseball, where the great majority of that "data" came from, where gut and instinct decisions made up the game all of us love? Those 100+ years are obsolete and meaningless now with the analytic angle i suppose. They were doing it all wrong. Who knew?
Posted on 3/7/22 at 1:50 am to lsufanva
id argue that shifts fall in line with the 100+ years of baseball decisions considering people shifted the frick out of ted williams
Posted on 3/7/22 at 2:18 am to WestCoastAg
And depending on a variety of factors Williams would usually bunt or try to hit opposite field to break the shift. You on the other hand would say swing away Jack regardless of the situation.
I guess he was a moron for following his gut and assessing what the current situation dictated was his best course of action.
I guess he was a moron for following his gut and assessing what the current situation dictated was his best course of action.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 2:21 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 2:33 am to Dr RC
quote:false. the only morons are those that pay attention to things like large data sets collected over years and years
I guess he was a moron for following his gut
Posted on 3/7/22 at 3:18 am to Jcorye1
quote:
What's to stop the players from shifting as soon as the pitch is thrown?
How?
Posted on 3/7/22 at 6:39 am to Jwho77
quote:
Players who don't follow the new positioning rules must use their arm as a bat the rest of the game.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 7:18 am to Choupique19
quote:
Does basketball tell the defense they can’t put all 5 defenders on the right side of the floor to make the dribbler go left?
They do have the three second violation, and it was illegal defense to play a zone for years.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 7:19 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:26 am to Master of Sinanju
quote:
The analytics say these guys going for the HR is still better than the sure base hit.
because the sample size of those going for the safe hit is too small. The stat is skewed.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:29 am to Dr RC
Williams famously didn’t try to elude the shift when it was first presented to him in the 1946 World Series and wound up hitting .200 in his only October appearance. And more times than not he just took a walk rather than give in to extreme defensive shifts.
I hear what all of you are saying about hitting the other way or bunting to beat shifts, but the counter from some batters would be, whether it’s right, wrong or stupid, “If I do that I’m going away from my strengths as a hitter, away from what got me to the majors.”
I hear what all of you are saying about hitting the other way or bunting to beat shifts, but the counter from some batters would be, whether it’s right, wrong or stupid, “If I do that I’m going away from my strengths as a hitter, away from what got me to the majors.”
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:36 am to Master of Sinanju
quote:
analytics say these guys going for the HR is still better than the sure base hit.
But if more guys COULD bunt or drag bunt would the analytics not change?
Posted on 3/7/22 at 8:58 am to WestCoastAg
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/14/23 at 12:12 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 9:18 am to Roger Klarvin
quote:
Football is the one major American sport made more exciting by analytics.
?????
Analytics have made the NFL basically the old Arena League
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:32 am to lsufanva
quote:
They were doing it all wrong. Who knew?
The shift has been around since the 40s. It is just so much more prevalent now because players, from a very young age learn how to hit home runs and strike people out. The game of baseball has always been evolving. I don’t like 3 outcome baseball either, but to pretend that shifts are the result of some product of baseball stat nerds is simply untrue. It’s also dumb to act like using analytics like we do now is unique to baseball. All sports do this after decades and decades of sample material to figure out how to gain an advantage to win.
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:34 am to msutiger
quote:and i promise you will not find many baseball executives who dont use statistics and analytics to make like 75% of their decision making on roster construction and game strategy
I promise you will not find one successful GM in baseball who doesn’t at least somewhat factor the human element.
This post was edited on 3/7/22 at 10:36 am
Posted on 3/7/22 at 10:43 am to InkStainedWretch
quote:
I hear what all of you are saying about hitting the other way or bunting to beat shifts, but the counter from some batters would be, whether it’s right, wrong or stupid, “If I do that I’m going away from my strengths as a hitter, away from what got me to the majors.”
It’s a lot more difficult to hit the other way when pitchers pitch you inside to force you to pull the ball. I mean if people want to have their high paid power hitters learn to be bunters, does that make the game better? I think a lot of teams would trade a bunt single for an XBH
Posted on 3/7/22 at 11:30 am to lsufball19
quote:
I think a lot of teams would trade a bunt single for an XBH
Depends on the game situation.
2 outs, nobody on, they would happily let someone like Joey Gallo try to bunt for a hit.
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