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Posted on 9/11/14 at 12:56 pm to LSUzealot
So is this going to be anything to worry about?
Posted on 9/11/14 at 1:04 pm to Fun Bunch
Posted on 9/11/14 at 2:54 pm to chickman1313
Will they change the kick off for the LSU game?
Posted on 9/11/14 at 5:19 pm to rds dc
Shear has really started to work 92L over this afternoon and convection appears to be moving farther away from the weak surface low. There was kind of a sweet spot in the upper level flow earlier today and convection really got going there for a few hours.
92L did pickup some model support today with the 12z GFS/GEFS and Euro/Euro EPS coming in a bit more interesting.
92L did pickup some model support today with the 12z GFS/GEFS and Euro/Euro EPS coming in a bit more interesting.
This post was edited on 9/11/14 at 5:45 pm
Posted on 9/11/14 at 8:15 pm to rds dc
Well well well the latest advisory just made this a little more interesting...
quote:
Once the low moves westward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend, conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Posted on 9/11/14 at 8:17 pm to CWilken21
Intradasating.
This post was edited on 9/11/14 at 8:20 pm
Posted on 9/11/14 at 8:20 pm to CWilken21
quote:
Well well well the latest advisory just made this a little more interesting...
They went down on the 2 day and up on the 5 day which means they think it could get its act together in the GOM rather than before it moves into FL. Also the GFS and EURO show more favorable conditions in the GOM, yet the GFS still isn't too kind to it, but is more bullish than before pushing it to Galveston as a wave.
This post was edited on 9/11/14 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 9/11/14 at 9:46 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Also the GFS and EURO show more favorable conditions in the GOM
The conditions being depicted across the northern Gulf in a few days are certainly interesting. I don't have any data at my finger tips but it seems like the models struggle with the upper levels more than they do with the mid and lower. Small changes in the upper level forecast could make a big difference in what happens in a few days.
However, 92L is getting gut punched tonight by dry stable are as the shear vector has shifted throughout the evening. The ULL to the E is slowly drifting W, the movement of that over the next 24 - 36 hours will be a wild card. Earlier today it was positioned such that it was aiding convection but this evening it is inhibiting it.
This post was edited on 9/12/14 at 8:25 am
Posted on 9/12/14 at 8:18 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/12/14 at 8:33 am to FelicianaTigerfan
Looking at few things this morning and the "kick back" that the models are showing is when things could get interesting. The upper level flow is forecasted to become more favorable across the northern Gulf around then. That appears to be what the 06z HWRF is sniffing out.
ETA: The Euro EPS members that strengthen 92L also do it on the kick back.
ETA: The Euro EPS members that strengthen 92L also do it on the kick back.
This post was edited on 9/12/14 at 8:56 am
Posted on 9/12/14 at 8:47 am to rds dc
Would the kickback be contingent upon it developing or not? If it develops is kicks back, and if not it keeps going west? (Would definitely pull for the latter - Texas still needs rain, and it not becoming something are perfect-world...)
This post was edited on 9/12/14 at 8:48 am
Posted on 9/12/14 at 8:50 am to rds dc
Why do you insist on using language like this when you know we don't know what the frick you're talking about?
You gotta dumb it down a little bit
You gotta dumb it down a little bit
Posted on 9/12/14 at 8:51 am to meauxjeaux2
quote:
Why do you insist on using language like this when you know we don't know what the frick you're talking about?
Posted on 9/12/14 at 8:58 am to dukke v
Thanks to all the guys that stay on top of this. Weather is just fascinating stuff.
Posted on 9/12/14 at 9:05 am to meauxjeaux2
have an upvote
Posted on 9/12/14 at 9:10 am to bamarep
quote:
Weather is just fascinating stuff.
Posted on 9/12/14 at 9:12 am to meauxjeaux2
quote:
You gotta dumb it down a little bit
It doesn't get any dumber than "kick back"
Posted on 9/12/14 at 9:14 am to rds dc
What's the deal with the huge storm in the southwest gulf? That's really large and it surprises me that no rotation or forecast.
Posted on 9/12/14 at 9:18 am to rds dc
quote:you could at least attempt to explain what kick back means.
It doesn't get any dumber than "kick back"
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