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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Lee Forecast to be 150MPH+
Posted on 9/8/23 at 7:48 pm to Duke
Posted on 9/8/23 at 7:48 pm to Duke
quote:
The cone size has not changed. It is always 2/3 of the typical error in track prediction at that point out in time.
The cone did widen in the four to five day range because they aren’t as confident about the track after three to four days; while a couple of days ago they were confident of the track on day five.
2
Posted on 9/8/23 at 7:51 pm to LSURussian
quote:
"..it's got lifeless eyes, black eyes, like a doll's eyes..." - Quint in Jaws
quote:
Now there's a look in your eyes, like black holes in the sky.
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:03 pm to McGruff21
I've got a trip planned to Idaho Falls in a week. Should I cancel?
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:07 pm to doubleb
quote:
The cone did widen in the four to five day range because they aren’t as confident about the track after three to four days; while a couple of days ago they were confident of the track on day five.
Trust me, it didnt.
The cone is always 1 standard deviation of the track forecast error over the past five years.
What probably did change is it slowed down. That will cause a "larger" cone, due to it being near the same spot over two forecast points.
This is how the cone works.
quote:
More proof they still have big issues forecasting intensity.
Big wiff. It caught me offsides on the intensity.
This post was edited on 9/8/23 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:26 pm to LSURoss
You should not go to idaho falls but not because of Lee
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:31 pm to Duke
Jova is now a lowly Cat. 1. Hell of a watch over the past couple days.
Posted on 9/9/23 at 12:57 am to soccerfüt
quote:
28.3 =/= 35
Pass Christian =/= Long Beach
quote:
Bro the storm surge in Long Beach wasn’t 35 fricking feet
Bro, according to NASA, the National Parks Service reports and plenty of other reports it absolutely was. Pretty sure it was 30-35 in Biloxi as well. frick off.
quote:
In the United States, one of the greatest recorded storm surges was generated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which produced a maximum storm surge of more than 25 ft (8 metres) in the communities of Waveland (41.5 ft), Bay St. Louis (38 ft), Diamondhead (30 ft) and Pass Christian (35 ft) in Mississippi.Another record storm surge occurred in this same area from Hurricane Camille in August 1969, with the highest storm tide of record noted from a high water mark as 24.6 ft (7.5 m), also found in Pass Christian (the back side of St. Louis Bay got up to 35 ft)
Next time don't act like you know more than the guy who was actually there and had to deal with it first hand.
This post was edited on 9/9/23 at 5:26 am
Posted on 9/9/23 at 6:10 am to im4LSU
quote:
Bro, according to NASA, the National Parks Service reports and plenty of other reports it absolutely was. Pretty sure it was 30-35 in Biloxi as well. frick off.
quote: In the United States, one of the greatest recorded storm surges was generated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which produced a maximum storm surge of more than 25 ft (8 metres) in the communities of Waveland (41.5 ft), Bay St. Louis (38 ft), Diamondhead (30 ft) and Pass Christian (35 ft) in Mississippi.Another record storm surge occurred in this same area from Hurricane Camille in August 1969, with the highest storm tide of record noted from a high water mark as 24.6 ft (7.5 m), also found in Pass Christian (the back side of St. Louis Bay got up to 35 ft)
Katrina’s low speed contributed to that. Also geography played a huge role. In those areas, water got bottled up and was forced up by the wind and constant wave action. The Mississippi River ridge acts like a funnel entrapping surge waters into the Sound with the stiff south and southeast winds. The trajectory of the storm did not help either, Katrina came close to 90 west then hooked north. That meant the Mississippi Gulf coast stayed in southerly winds throughout the event.
Along the Mississippi coast some areas will go from sea level to 20-40 feet pretty quickly then fall back lower behind the railroad tracks because of the bays, rivers, and estuary basins before you start getting into the southern hills and pine forests.
All those back basins filled up quickly with surge and wave action. Unlike the Bayou area where it is flat marshlands the surge spreads out over the area and is only forced higher by levees; the marsh also helps in limiting wave action, in Mississippi you go from coast to hard land. With no other place for the water to go, surge just kept going higher.
My fear porn storm for the Bayou area would be a storm that forms in the southwestern gulf and moves North North east. It comes ashore around Morgan City and is moving about 5 MPH. The center stays west of Houma and the bayou area stays in a constant south wind for the duration of the event. That would be your storm of record for surge for that area. You could see water as far as Thibodaux if the Levees in Terrebonne cannot hold back the surge or create a reservoir slowing the water from moving north. On the east side of the Lafourche ridge, there is little to stop water from coming up Bayou Des Allemands and flooding the Chackbay area. The storm would also need the perfect conditions to form and build enough strength and surge to mirror a Katrina. The good thing is that some of those Bay of Campeche storms are home brew storms that are sometimes associated with a cold front and move fast. The 1893 storm that hit Grand Isle comes to mind. A cool front just passed and then bam a wall of water erases an entire town on the coast.
This post was edited on 9/9/23 at 6:37 am
Posted on 9/9/23 at 6:14 am to Tarps99
Posted on 9/9/23 at 7:47 am to doubleb
quote:
The cone did widen in the four to five day range because they aren’t as confident about the track after three to four days; while a couple of days ago they were confident of the track on day five.
All incorrect.
Cone size has nothing to do with confidence in the forecast track for individual storms.
Posted on 9/9/23 at 8:35 am to FutureMikeVIII
New York and Boston are going to see some serious swells from this.
Posted on 9/9/23 at 8:35 am to MrLSU
Dang this Hurricane crapped out
Posted on 9/9/23 at 9:32 am to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
Cone size has nothing to do with confidence in the forecast track for individual storms.
Apparently I was wrong, but Why wouldn’t it? Just asking.
If there is a high certainty that the forecasted track after five days shouldn’t the cone be tighter than one for a storm that the track is shaky?
I’m not arguing just asking.
This post was edited on 9/9/23 at 9:33 am
Posted on 9/9/23 at 10:01 am to doubleb
quote:
If there is a high certainty that the forecasted track after five days shouldn’t the cone be tighter than one for a storm that the track is shaky?
Honestly not sure why. My guess is it would be pretty difficult to quantify that uncertainty for every storm at every forecast point.
So they just say, this is how close we’ve been over the last 5 years, calculate that at the beginning of every season and use those values more quickly and easily. Then specific track uncertainties can be qualitatively discussed in their text products. That’s a complete guess, though.
Posted on 9/9/23 at 10:47 am to im4LSU
Bravo…. 
Posted on 9/9/23 at 11:22 am to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
Honestly not sure why. My guess is it would be pretty difficult to quantify that uncertainty for every storm at every forecast point.
The way the models come out with various scenarios (ensembles) you would think it wouldn’t be that hard to customize the cone to provide folks down the line a better idea of the situation.
Posted on 9/9/23 at 11:41 am to Tarps99
The Katrina surge debate is splitting hairs. It could have been 30+ feet in areas that were unable to be measured. Still water marks were hard to come by in some of the worst areas because buildings were just gone. Many tide gauges failed and didn't get an accurate measurement. Even with those limitations the NHC final report on Katrina still puts the highest surge at 28'. So, yeah.....it was in all likelihood higher than that, and potentially significantly higher.
Again, that's just splitting hairs and isn't productive to argue over. 25', 28', 32', 35'? It is all catastrophic.
Again, that's just splitting hairs and isn't productive to argue over. 25', 28', 32', 35'? It is all catastrophic.
Posted on 9/9/23 at 11:42 am to doubleb
quote:
The way the models come out with various scenarios (ensembles) you would think it wouldn’t be that hard to customize the cone to provide folks down the line a better idea of the situation.
Providing detailed forecasts to the general public at that range would cause more problems than it would solve.
Posted on 9/9/23 at 11:46 am to McGruff21
Why not try the nuke on this one and see what happens?
Posted on 9/9/23 at 12:04 pm to LegendInMyMind
Friend just texted that they had to change their flight out of Bermuda to Monday instead of next Friday. Seems a little early to make that change?
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