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Posted on 9/28/24 at 5:44 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/28/24 at 5:45 pm to rds dc
18z GFS has everyone waiting for the turn NE about a week from today.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 5:49 pm to rds dc
We’ll need a cold front to come in and sweep it east right?
Posted on 9/28/24 at 5:50 pm to rds dc
I’m in Louisiana .. not far from the coast. I’d offer to take it for the good of Florida but it of course doesn’t work like that.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 6:11 pm to purple18
quote:
Which isn’t good for Louisiana The speed of the storm combined with the speed of the cold front will determine if Louisiana. What really sucks is it looks like it will bring another round of flooding rains to the Smokey Mountain region
None of these models can even say where it’s going, but you can start dooms day predictions? Interesting
Posted on 9/28/24 at 6:16 pm to rds dc
Wait. Wut? 2?
Posted on 9/28/24 at 6:34 pm to SWLA92
quote:
We’ll need a cold front to come in and sweep it east right?
There's split flow in the upper levels. GFS doesn't have the trough fully working through fully until the storm has started making landfall. Instead, there is an associated shortwave that is what pushes it East just prior to landfall. Eventually the main trough dips deep enough to pull it Northeast. It would be better if we had just a solid trough/front working through.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 6:38 pm to notiger1997
quote:
None of these models can even say where it’s going, but you can start dooms day predictions? Interesting
Yep…those same models that pretty much nailed Hurricane Helene 7-8 days out
Posted on 9/28/24 at 6:49 pm to rds dc
You get a hurricane and you get a hurricane and you get a hurricane
Posted on 9/28/24 at 7:27 pm to rds dc
Question: Do large, intense hurricanes have a cooling effect on the Gulf? I’m wondering if Helene may have cooled the Gulf and, if so, can that potential cooling effect make it less likely for a subsequent hurricane to intensify?
Posted on 9/28/24 at 7:28 pm to CoastLSUFan
She did have a cooling effect but the water temperatures are still plenty warm enough. They will be until we start getting consistent cool fronts coming through.
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[/url][/img]This post was edited on 9/28/24 at 7:34 pm
Posted on 9/28/24 at 7:33 pm to SWLA92
quote:
She did have a cooling effect but the water temperatures are still plenty warm enough. They will be until we start getting consistent cool fronts coming through
Thanks for the quick response, even though I was hoping to learn otherwise. I live on the MS/AL border, which is where this one is possibly headed.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 7:37 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
There's split flow in the upper levels. GFS doesn't have the trough fully working through fully until the storm has started making landfall. Instead, there is an associated shortwave that is what pushes it East just prior to landfall. Eventually the main trough dips deep enough to pull it Northeast. It would be better if we had just a solid trough/front working through.
Looking at the 18z GFS, that appears to be the remnants of the first system that erodes the ridge just enough to turn the system early.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 7:59 pm to rds dc
quote:
Looking at the 18z GFS, that appears to be the remnants of the first system that erodes the ridge just enough to turn the system early.
Makes sense.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 8:30 pm to maisweh
quote:
Wtf is that spinning up 2 at the same time
HAARP putting in overtime just ahead of the election.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 8:41 pm to genuineLSUtiger
That’s exactly what my husband said. How did you know that?
Posted on 9/28/24 at 8:43 pm to GeauxLSUGRL
quote:
That’s exactly what my husband said. How did you know that?
Posted on 9/28/24 at 8:46 pm to genuineLSUtiger
quote:
HAARP putting in overtime just ahead of the election.
Posted on 9/28/24 at 9:08 pm to CoastLSUFan
Way I understand it the longer they sit in the gulf the more it cools it down as they suck all the energy up. Helene was kinda fast.
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