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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:12 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:12 am to Roll Tide Ravens
From the Shreveport NWS forecast discussion this morning
They’re still hedging their bets, as they should be right now, but they called the January 11 snow pretty close. Another snow would be pretty but no ice please.
quote:
LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Thursday Night/ First, let`s establish what does appear certain in the long-term part of the forecast. Some extremely cold temperatures are poised to arrive in our part of the country by the middle to latter half of next week, very possibly the coldest temperatures in quite a few years in our region given some of the latest NWP guidance. Where the forecast gets much trickier is the possible precipitation types, naturally the most challenging aspect of winter weather forecasting here in the Deep South. Before we dive any deeper into that, let`s enjoy the warmer and drier part of the forecast. Beginning Saturday night, we`ll see an advancing shortwave making its way out of the region with available moisture shifting east of the MS River just ahead of a weakening cold front. This front will do very little to cool temperatures any further. In fact, Sunday`s high temperatures are expected to climb into the 50s to lower 60s from north to south with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. This warming trend will carry into early next week as a near zonal flow sets up aloft for Monday with southerly winds returning at the sfc. This will help push temperatures even warmer with much of the region in the 60s for highs on Monday afternoon. By Monday night into early Tuesday, major changes will begin to take shape as a potent Arctic cold front is expected to arrive with scattered showers gradually spreading southward through Tuesday before exiting with the front through Tuesday night. Given the Arctic nature of this cold front, there may be a small window of opportunity for some brief rain/snow mix along the Ouachitas in our farther northern zones Tuesday night, but no impacts are expected as moisture will be quickly exiting with the departing front. From this point on, the forecast becomes much more complicated and uncertain through the remainder of the week. The front will shift well south into the Gulf before stalling out later in the week. Meanwhile, the massive Arctic air mass will continue building well south into our region as the 1044mb Arctic high riding down toward the Front Range of the Rockies by Thursday. While this is occurring, medium-range progs continue to suggest moisture overrunning will pick up as troughing increases to our west. The extent/amplitude of troughing remains in question this far out in time, but confidence is slowly increasing that some form of mixed wintry precipitation will affect much if not all of our region by mid to late next week, beginning as early as Wednesday night and continuing on through the remainder of this long-term forecast period. Unfortunately, given the amount of uncertainty with this forecast, it`s not prudent to get into the finer details of exactly where which precipitation types will occur and how much may accumulate. Suffice it to say, all options are on the table at this point and better model consensus will hopefully reveal a clearer picture in the next several days.
They’re still hedging their bets, as they should be right now, but they called the January 11 snow pretty close. Another snow would be pretty but no ice please.
0
Posted on 2/5/21 at 7:20 am to BottomlandBrew
Does the Euro still show significantly warmer than the American? The guy here in Houston basically said the Euro has been much better temp wise so he was sticking with that for the forecast.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 8:41 am to bigberg2000
It won’t be until Mon/Tues before we have any confidence with this forecast
Posted on 2/5/21 at 8:41 am to bigberg2000
Current situation at the house right now in the Northernmost suburbs of Austin.
Sleet, Rain, Thunder, and Lightening.
Weird Winter so far...
Sleet, Rain, Thunder, and Lightening.
Weird Winter so far...
Posted on 2/5/21 at 8:53 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
A few days ago I mentioned that I was heading north for a family visit. I’m about to leave and experience some legitimately cold air, and probably see a couple rounds of light snow. The comment is always “bring some back” when I say that. I’m not sure if I will, but the signal for one heck of a cold dump continues to grow for late next week and weekend in our area. This is now within the range of me raising an eyebrow. If, *if* something wintry were to materialize, my initial feeling is ice over snow, but nothing is close to being a reality just yet. But I’m very much locked in on this, and will update things this weekend, hopefully with a picture of a little snow from Missouri to set the mood for potential winter fun down here.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:09 am to rt3
I was joking about north LA getting 120 hours of below freezing temps earlier in this thread but the forecast as of now is showing at least 60 hours. That’s a ridiculous amount of time for this far south.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:23 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
Looks like 1-3” of snow now
In Slidell?
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:24 am to The Boat
If the model trends continue the way they have been, the official forecasts will begin to reflect this and we'll see the forecasts call for lower and lower temps and eventually introduce more and more precipitation. We're already seeing the forecast begin this transition. The question is how much more confidence do the experts gain? Nobody knows yet but certainly the trend for a very cold outbreak along with at least SOME precipitation is there.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:29 am to The Boat
quote:
I was joking about north LA getting 120 hours of below freezing temps earlier in this thread but the forecast as of now is showing at least 60 hours. That’s a ridiculous amount of time for this far south.
At least we have pretty far advance warning.
Now what should we south Louisianans, unused to this, do to prepare?
This seems like low enough sustained temperatures to demand wrapping pipes, right?
What else? Experts, chime in.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:33 am to BornCritic
quote:
This seems like low enough sustained temperatures to demand wrapping pipes, right?
Uhh, 100%. The GFS and EURO are closer to freezing for highs with little to no precip this morning but the Canadian still shows LOTS of freezing rain/sleet with HIGHS around 20 for Friday and Saturday and lows in the mid teens. If that were to come to fruition, I'm sure even brick homes would see burst pipes on exterior walls - especially if we lose power resulting in loss of interior heat. This would 100% be a huge pipe buster. The models flip back and forth but the trend is there for a significant event. Just watch it and think about what you will do to prepare.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:33 am to jimbeam
quote:
The Boat
This is the real deal, baw
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:34 am to BornCritic
Actually wrapping faucets outside, salting where ya wanna walk outside, plenty of food and keep the faucet farthest away from where your water enters the house at a steady drip.
Alcohol too
Alcohol too
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:36 am to DVinBR
quote:
this keeps holding this thread will turn into an equivalent hurricane thread
Breast milk standing by...
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:37 am to Impotent Waffle
Grocery stores will be like hurricane prep stupid late next week if this forecast stays so don’t wait until the last minute
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:37 am to AlxTgr
We may be getting a significant act of snow and ice.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:38 am to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Breast milk standing by...
I missed the original post that started this joke but I've seen the references in the other weather threads. Can someone please explain what the titty milk thing comes from?
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:39 am to The Boat
quote:
I was joking about north LA getting 120 hours of below freezing temps earlier in this thread but the forecast as of now is showing at least 60 hours. That’s a ridiculous amount of time for this far south.
Remember the last cold snap when people were starting threads about pipes and running their water and such? Yeah, this is the type weather and stretch of sub-freezing temps that warrants that. It also isn't a bad idea to go buy a couple of small space heaters, the kind that look like radiators. Put them near your most susceptible pipes, like laundry or water heater to stop freezing, particularly in older homes. Of course, trickle the water. It doesn't need to be much, I steady drip is usually enough.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:40 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
It also isn't a bad idea to go buy a couple of small space heaters, the kind that look like radiators.
Those are probably the safest ones to use in my opinion.
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:42 am to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Alcohol too
Posted on 2/5/21 at 9:43 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Remember the last cold snap when people were starting threads about pipes and running their water and such?
Wasn't that like January of 2018? Got obscene cold. Like in the teens. Seems like I remember all the New Orleans baws having issues with their pipes under their houses.
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