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Started By
Message
re: Severe weather this weekend March 14-15
Posted on 3/12/25 at 7:10 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 3/12/25 at 7:10 am to Roll Tide Ravens
From the SPC this morning...
quote:
a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight.
1
Posted on 3/12/25 at 7:15 am to tiger91
quote:
But that’s what I’m asking .. pull over yes. There wouldn’t be much traffic. But do you stay in your car? Do you get out lol? This will never be needed I’m sure but just curious.
Sounds like it is time to adjust plans, either travel home on Friday, or stay and skip the marathon
This post was edited on 3/12/25 at 7:16 am
Posted on 3/12/25 at 7:51 am to East Coast Band
quote:
From the SPC this morning..
Spann referred to it in his morning weather briefing video as a “high end severe weather threat.” That’s pretty strong wording for Spann for an event that’s basically still 3 days away.
I get the feeling that this is probably the most significant threat we have had in Alabama since March 2021 when we had a couple of high risk days.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 7:53 am to schwartzy
quote:
A little surprised the risk isn’t moderate for Saturday if they’re thinking it’ll be as big as some say
I think there’s a good chance we’ll see a moderate risk area if things continue to trend in the direction that they are. The risk areas for Saturday won’t actually become categorized (marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate, high) until we get to tomorrow’s outlook.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 7:54 am to AUstar
quote:
Didn't Trump fire all the weathermen?
Yes! They didn't have the manpower to stop this!!
This post was edited on 3/12/25 at 7:56 am
Posted on 3/12/25 at 8:00 am to schwartzy
They’re backing off the agressive language on the latest update.
Now the severe threat is “conditional” so they aren’t as confident in the higher end threat as yesterday
Friday the lapse rates will be steep further north but less instability, the southern end will have more instability but weaker lapse rates.
Saturday depends entirely on if the atmosphere can recover from overnight convection
Now the severe threat is “conditional” so they aren’t as confident in the higher end threat as yesterday
Friday the lapse rates will be steep further north but less instability, the southern end will have more instability but weaker lapse rates.
Saturday depends entirely on if the atmosphere can recover from overnight convection
Posted on 3/12/25 at 8:07 am to deltaland
Posted on 3/12/25 at 8:30 am to deltaland
I may not do any chasing if it looks like a messy wet mess or if the instability isn’t there. Only the discrete cells are fun chasing
Posted on 3/12/25 at 9:39 am to deltaland
quote:
Saturday depends entirely on if the atmosphere can recover from overnight convection
Hopefully by tonight or tomorrow morning when we start getting in the range of the high res convection allowing models (CAMs) we will have a better idea of what the Friday night/Saturday morning convection does and how quickly it goes away.
SPC is still pretty bullish about what might play out on Saturday if the overnight convection clears out:
quote:
However, some uncertainty remains tied to the evolution of convection in the Day 3/Fri period into the morning hours of Saturday. Some forecast guidance suggests a relatively pristine warm sector will be maintained, or if only isolated convection develops overnight/early Saturday, recovery could occur. If this scenario unfolds, a concerning severe weather setup supporting all-hazard severe could unfold across portions of LA/MS/AL through the day and into evening, and eventually spreading east into GA overnight.
This post was edited on 3/12/25 at 9:49 am
Posted on 3/12/25 at 10:43 am to Roll Tide Ravens
I know it probably keeps us from getting the worst of these events, but it would be nice if we occasionally got our part during daylight (in Georgia).
Posted on 3/12/25 at 12:16 pm to schwartzy
quote:
I nay head up towards Meridian on Saturday and go to Aliceville, AL
I hunt in Aliceville and north Sumter. You head that way often? Family?
Posted on 3/12/25 at 12:35 pm to tiger91
quote:
Gonna have to cut their pay for not being in this thread
Maybe Trump already cut more than their pay
quote:
But that’s what I’m asking .. pull over yes. There wouldn’t be much traffic. But do you stay in your car? Do you get out lol? This will never be needed I’m sure but just curious.
I'm not saying this is the RIGHT thing to do but I don't think there's anyway I'd do anything but try to out run it. Getting out and laying in a low median if I'm taking a direct hit seems like a very low success option to me. Another heads up if you are having a hard time telling what direction the tornado is going judge it by the trees to its left and right and you can better tell direction. As already said if it doesn't seem to be moving it's coming at you
Posted on 3/12/25 at 12:44 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
I hunt in Aliceville and north Sumter. You head that way often? Family?
I have family in Birmingham, but growing up there I know Aliceville was ground zero for storms. I’ve actually never been there. Got any good bbq there?
Posted on 3/12/25 at 1:40 pm to East Coast Band
I post on a weather message board that a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Birmingham also posts on occasionally. Not to be an alarmist, but he posted on there this afternoon that if current model depictions continue, he believes we are looking at a major tornado outbreak.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 1:51 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
I need this to move slow and not hit Birmingham until Sat night at the earliest. Got big things Sat afternoon so I’m thinking dry thoughts. Dreaming of camels and deserts.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 1:53 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
but he posted on there this afternoon that if current model depictions continue, he believes we are looking at a major tornado outbreak.
Is the current thinking for all of the enhanced area or maybe a specific area of interest?
Posted on 3/12/25 at 2:04 pm to schwartzy
quote:
I know Aliceville was ground zero for storms. I’ve actually never been there. Got any good bbq there?
Not in Aliceville. My wife was originally from there. There is a pretty good little place in Gainesville AL called Alabama Rib Shack that isnt bad.
I usually do my own.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 2:25 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
Is the current thinking for all of the enhanced area or maybe a specific area of interest?
I would say the whole area that’s currently in Saturday’s enhanced risk, but I imagine they may narrow down the greatest threat area over the next couple of days.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 2:48 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
I post on a weather message board that a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Birmingham also posts on occasionally. Not to be an alarmist, but he posted on there this afternoon that if current model depictions continue, he believes we are looking at a major tornado outbreak.
I've seen a few X posts that are screaming "high end", etc. but , I don't know how accurate some of those clowns can be.
Not much, though, is indicating that this will be minimal.
Posted on 3/12/25 at 2:53 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
If showers/storms linger Saturday morning over N AL and TN the higher ceiling will probably be on the southern extent of the risk area. How things play out tomorrow and Friday could play a roll, too, with questions regarding moisture return, after this initial shortwave tomorrow and the QLCS threat Friday. Then, the progression of Saturday's system may have an impact on the northern extent. If we see a line or blob of messy storms track into north AL/TN with the southern end trailing, that will give more time for destabilization to the south.
All of that will be more of a now-casting deal than a forecasting one.
All of that will be more of a now-casting deal than a forecasting one.
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