- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Stanford University anti-body study finds COVID-19 more widespread than thought
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:41 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:41 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
The flu doesn’t overwhelm ICUs and ERs in hard hit areas
Link to all these overwhelmed ICUs and ERs, Karen?
I find it telling this post of mine got six downvotes but not one single reply detailing overwhelmed hospitals.
*still waiting to hear about these “overwhelmed” ICUs and ERs*
1
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:43 pm to RollTide1987
These studies are really bad, and Stanford medicine employs a lot of really bad scientists apparently.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:45 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
These studies are really bad, and Stanford medicine employs a lot of really bad scientists apparently.
Lol
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:47 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
So at this point in time I have 2 choices:
1. Believe vast majority of medical professionals opinion
2. Believe what I want to believe to be true
3. Read the article put out by Stanford that studied and tells you what the denominator is.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:49 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
A bad flu season can and does do that. There were well over a million hospitalizations during the 2017-18 flu season.
Did any hospitals have to add critical care facilities, did any hospitals have to repurpose entire wings or reopen mothballed facilities like BR did?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:50 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Translation = it's likely just flu.
If true, it makes it much, much different than the flu. The flu doesn’t have nearly that high of an asymptomatic rate.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:50 pm to deeprig9
quote:
Neither does Covid-19
It did in BR
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:50 pm to deeprig9
I'm there in the facilities. And no, it doesn't. Also, hospitals don't reserve and occupy three floors for just influenza patients.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:51 pm to Golfer
quote:I said a week ago that these studies were going to show an absurdly high infection rate because of all of the false positives, as high as 80%. This is even worse than I expected.
Lol
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:52 pm to dawgfan24348
quote:
I'm sure the OT know more than "experts"
If we are talking about the WHO, or Fauci. Then yes. The OT was right and they were wrong.
Fauci cost this country $2 trillion.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:52 pm to doubleb
quote:
Did any hospitals have to add critical care facilities, did any hospitals have to repurpose entire wings or reopen mothballed facilities like BR did?
I believe they did that to help stop the spread between non-covid and covid patients. Not because of an overload of the system.
It just so happens that BRG has an available hospital as does OLOL since Children’s just finished.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:54 pm to Privateer 2007
quote:
Fauci cost this country $2 trillion.
"We're talking about the greatest economy in the world. One day I had to shut it down ... and it was the right thing to do!"
Donald J. Trump - 4/11/20
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:55 pm to Pintail
quote:
Did you even read the article?
quote:
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April
Now let’s do some math. There have been 69 deaths in Santa Clara county.
How dense are you? The article is based off of ESTIMATES! This is not hard data.
Here is the actual data:
Santa Clara confirmed positive cases is 1833
Santa Clara deaths is 69
Death rate 69/1833 = 3.8%
How are you just taking the study as confirmed fact? Like honestly, how do you do that? I can find you any number of studies which say the denominator is just 2x or 5x or 10x. So why take the 50x-80x as confirmed fact? Because it confirms what you already believe to be true.
Do I think the death rate is really 3.8%? No. Obviously more people have had it than have been tested.
Here are New York’s City’s confirmed facts:
Deaths 11,477
Confirmed Cases 123,146
Death rate: 9.3%
Total Population 8.7M
Death rate assuming every single one of the 8.7M had the virus is 0.13%. (I was wrong earlier about 0.17%). This also assumes NYC will not have any more deaths.
We don’t know what the true denominator is, but based on this real data (not estimates), the best case scenario is 0.13%. But I don’t think I’m going out on a limb saying that not all 8.7M have had it and that there will be no more deaths. So the death rate will be much higher than 0.13%.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:55 pm to doubleb
quote:
Did any hospitals have to add critical care facilities, did any hospitals have to repurpose entire wings or reopen mothballed facilities like BR did?
Possibly, they treated people in triage tents during the 2018 flu.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:56 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
I said a week ago that these studies were going to show an absurdly high infection rate because of all of the false positives, as high as 80%. This is even worse than I expected.
I don't have any idea what the sensitivity or specificity of the Stanford test might be, but they did apparently run it against controls and try to account for that in their analysis.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:56 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Sorry, but no. You can't compute the CFR using only "confirmed" cases in the denominator.
I'm not disagreeing with the point you're trying to make, but your statement above is wrong. That's the definition of case fatality rate, using diagnosed, i.e. cofirmed, cases in the denominator.
Fair enough. Maybe I am misusing the technical definition of CFR. But if that is the case, we need to stop talking about CFR altogether because it is a meaningless stat in this context. The point is that the fatality rate is way way lower than what is being thrown out there by many. There are huge numbers of people who got infected with this and didn't even know it.
The "confirmed cases" number is another useless stat IMO. It is nothing more than the cumulative total of positive test results. Unless you are going to track and back out recoveries it is meaningless. I have always thought that hospitalizations and deaths are the only relevant stats.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:57 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
Deaths 11,477
Is that a confirmed number or does it include the 3700 presumed deaths that they just added in?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:58 pm to RollTide1987
Sure. I remember the refrigeration trucks lined up collecting bodies for pretty much every flu and common cold season.
And pretty much every country on earth imposes social distancing guidelines every year.
Thank god for the geniuses of the OT.
And pretty much every country on earth imposes social distancing guidelines every year.
Thank god for the geniuses of the OT.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:59 pm to wdhalgren
quote:All of the antibody tests thus far have not been very promising in that regard, and Stanford rushing to do this does not bode well for their test.
I don't have any idea what the sensitivity or specificity of the Stanford test might be
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:01 pm to Darth_Vader
Tulane University hospital
University medical center New Orleans
Ochsner Hospital
All made extra space by assigning extra floors exclusively for COVID patients.
Hospital staff at those facilities also turned up positive for the virus at a much higher rate than during flu season.
University medical center New Orleans
Ochsner Hospital
All made extra space by assigning extra floors exclusively for COVID patients.
Hospital staff at those facilities also turned up positive for the virus at a much higher rate than during flu season.
Page 5 of 10
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News