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re: A look at 16 different electoral map projections...
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:36 pm to memphis tiger
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:36 pm to memphis tiger
In 2016 nationwide polls had Hillary getting 45.7% of the vote and Trump 41.8%. The final nationwide results were Hillary 48.2% - Trump 46.1%. Instead of a 3.9% gap it was only 2.1%. 1.8% off which isn't huge. Not like Truman-Dewey in 1948.
Of course the 2016 polling in critical states missed the shift in voters over the last ten days of the election after the Comey letter. That was where they really missed.
The thing is there were fairly large numbers of undecided voters in 2016. This year the undecideds add up to only 2%, or so.
Polling organizations are also trying (successfully??) to accurately gauge state by state numbers better than in 2016. My former home Wisconsin, for example, has been polled much more in 20 than 16.
We'll know in about three weeks. (I'm allowing for a week after November 3 to count absentee ballots.)
Of course the 2016 polling in critical states missed the shift in voters over the last ten days of the election after the Comey letter. That was where they really missed.
The thing is there were fairly large numbers of undecided voters in 2016. This year the undecideds add up to only 2%, or so.
Polling organizations are also trying (successfully??) to accurately gauge state by state numbers better than in 2016. My former home Wisconsin, for example, has been polled much more in 20 than 16.
We'll know in about three weeks. (I'm allowing for a week after November 3 to count absentee ballots.)
1
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:37 pm to Mickey Goldmill
I didn’t count Minnesota as a win for him in that scenario. It’s less of a battleground than the ones I listed. Safer Dem state.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:38 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
Pfft. It will be 318-220 TRUMP WIN.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 12:38 pm to the808bass
quote:
I didn’t count Minnesota as a win for him in that scenario. It’s less of a battleground than the ones I listed. Safer Dem state.
Ah my bad
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:01 pm to Janky
We are firmly on for our wager. Honestly, I hope I have to pay you. It will be cheaper in the long run 
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:03 pm to Displaced
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:21 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
Where do you people come from?
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:25 pm to Displaced
quote:
This board is dangerous to itself. You shun any person who's opinion isn't 100% lock step in with MAGA 2020 WHOOOOO!!!!!!
I dunno about this election. 3 weeks ago i was certain of a big Trump win. Now with the very real threat of mail in voting fraud I can't get any kinda real take on this election.... Maddening!!!!!
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:27 pm to Displaced
You believe these polls are more than one “instance”?
Like muh 17 intelligence agencies?
Like muh 17 intelligence agencies?
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:28 pm to stat19
Been here for years mate. And I explicitly stated why I DONT believe the polls.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:29 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
Trump Avalanche
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:30 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
quote:
Been here for years mate. And I explicitly stated why I DONT believe the polls.
That same disclosure is given nightly by Rachel Maddow and Jake Tapper. Then they discuss the polls.
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:30 pm to Displaced
quote:
This board is dangerous to itself. You shun any person who's opinion isn't 100% lock step in with MAGA 2020 WHOOOOO!!!!!!
And they have the ultimate hedge with “Trump wins easily unless there’s fraud”
You literally can’t be wrong with that sentence so it’s a brilliant coping mechanism
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:40 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
I just saw literally 100 boats with Trump flags pass by
Posted on 10/19/20 at 1:44 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:19 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
Posted on 10/19/20 at 2:20 pm to CrazyJoeDivola
Most polling assumes millennials will turn out for Biden at the same rate (percentage AND number) they did for Clinton. This ignores the reality that most of the millennial vote was millennial women who turned out well for ‘we want a vagina!’
Those girls aren’t enthused for groovy SloJoe, and millennial guys never were going to be enthused - they are the ones saying ‘we want a vagina!’ This election, but for apolitical reasons.
Those girls aren’t enthused for groovy SloJoe, and millennial guys never were going to be enthused - they are the ones saying ‘we want a vagina!’ This election, but for apolitical reasons.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 6:27 am to ValDawgsta
quote:
And they have the ultimate hedge with “Trump wins easily unless there’s fraud”
That statement is true.
The ONLY way Trump loses is fraud, period, end of story.
Posted on 10/20/20 at 6:35 am to CrazyJoeDivola
quote:
I personally believe this underestimates the amount of enthusiasm in Blacks and Latinos for Trump, and the amount of enthusiasm in general.
Check out THIS election projection map. You can play with the numbers and see how it changes things. Look what happens if you move Blacks to just 10% and Hispanics to just 30%....
Look what happens if you leave that and just adjust white, non college voters up to 60% participation (or voter turnout)
This post was edited on 10/20/20 at 6:37 am
Posted on 10/20/20 at 6:41 am to Displaced
quote:
This board is dangerous to itself. You shun any person who's opinion isn't 100% lock step in with MAGA 2020 WHOOOOO!!!!!!
This board has always been that way, a GOP cheer board and now MAGA. The only real online “debates” sadly occur mostly in comments sections of sites like reason.com but even that is iffy and devolves into name calling.
But hey we live in a time where our president can’t keep himself civil in a live debate.
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