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Message
re: China is not invading Taiwan
Posted on 2/27/22 at 11:07 am to Ag Zwin
Posted on 2/27/22 at 11:07 am to Ag Zwin
Beijing and China think in terms of a thousand years, unlike what the west and most of the rest of the world do.
They could and would nuke Taiwan just to rid themselves of an island full of dissenters at any time.
Don't be fooled by the media. I'll bet you can find very few instances of anyone out there thinking Putin would be doing what he is doing at this moment either.
They could and would nuke Taiwan just to rid themselves of an island full of dissenters at any time.
Don't be fooled by the media. I'll bet you can find very few instances of anyone out there thinking Putin would be doing what he is doing at this moment either.
1
Posted on 2/27/22 at 11:09 am to Bearcat90
Just like Russia and Putin, China and Xi will attempt this as soon as they are able to get away with it. Make no mistake they are stacking the deck to get away with it.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 11:50 am to Ponchy Tiger
Many of y’all have never done any research on what an invasion of Taiwan would take. Yes it would take thousands of ships and it is accepted by experts that china would have to use their merchant fleet. So Taiwan and the world would know a month or 2 before it happened because china couldn’t hide the gathering of vessels. Also it can only happen on April or October because those are the only times the strait is passable for a large invasion force.
Taiwan also has layer after layer of defenses they will deploy to make china bleed at every step. From sea mines to boobie traps, a submarine force trained in attacking an invasion force, dug in artillery, rocket forces hitting the invasion and the Chinese mainland. Building and rock outcrops will have steel cables put between them to entangle helicopters and bridges and tunnels will be rigged with explosives to go off at the last moment. Spies and saboteurs that are already embedded in the mainland carriers out attacks and assassinations . Plus they have like 2.5 million reservist to add to their main military force.
It would make the Russian-Ukrainian invasion look like a walk in the park. Plus they at most would have a week or 2 to finish the job before and American/Japanese response force arrived. There are only a small number of beaches the Chinese invasion can land and they are fortified and have underground tunnels leading to them were soldiers and supplies can easily be reinforced and get in position. Their modern air force will be protected in mountain bunkers so china won’t be able to destroy it in the ground.
This is much different than Ukraine, Taiwan has been living under threat of invasion for 70-80 years and have been preparing all that time. There are several good articles written about what an invasion and defense will look like, it’s fascinating stuff. Also I know too long didn’t read
Taiwan also has layer after layer of defenses they will deploy to make china bleed at every step. From sea mines to boobie traps, a submarine force trained in attacking an invasion force, dug in artillery, rocket forces hitting the invasion and the Chinese mainland. Building and rock outcrops will have steel cables put between them to entangle helicopters and bridges and tunnels will be rigged with explosives to go off at the last moment. Spies and saboteurs that are already embedded in the mainland carriers out attacks and assassinations . Plus they have like 2.5 million reservist to add to their main military force.
It would make the Russian-Ukrainian invasion look like a walk in the park. Plus they at most would have a week or 2 to finish the job before and American/Japanese response force arrived. There are only a small number of beaches the Chinese invasion can land and they are fortified and have underground tunnels leading to them were soldiers and supplies can easily be reinforced and get in position. Their modern air force will be protected in mountain bunkers so china won’t be able to destroy it in the ground.
This is much different than Ukraine, Taiwan has been living under threat of invasion for 70-80 years and have been preparing all that time. There are several good articles written about what an invasion and defense will look like, it’s fascinating stuff. Also I know too long didn’t read
This post was edited on 2/27/22 at 11:53 am
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:07 pm to makinskrilla
quote:
Taiwan IS in china.
Exactly. Beijing always has regarded Taiwan as a "renegade province" of the PRC, and it has acted as a mostly autonomous state within China.
Taiwan has never been a sovereign nation, though many right-wingers insist that it is.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:09 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
A) I don’t believe China has that serious of a hard-on to do it. Never met many who thought this was a big deal.
Talk with a Chinese person then. Even the ones that hate the CCP think Taiwan is rightly theirs. They're very motivated to take that island and have a major incentive to do it.
quote:
B) The last amphibious landing sufficient in size to pull this off occurred in 1944. You don’t sneak 7,000 ships anywhere these days. (ETA: Incheon in 1950 might be a relevant example, but I doubt that was big enough for this.)
Well they're not planning on a surprise invasion. We'll know weeks in advance just like we did with Ukraine. Yeah, China knows that hundreds of thousands and likely millions of Chinese men will die, but they don't care.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:10 pm to makinskrilla
quote:
the invasion doesnt have to be amphibious, they can airdrop in too.
There's no way they can take Taiwan simply with airdrops. The invasion has to be amphibious.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:13 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
amphibious landing sufficient in size to pull this off
China won’t have to do that. Seize key islands. Put small teams on them with mobile anti ship rockets.
Now you’ve got sea denial, and you can besiege Taiwan with 50k or fewer troops.
The Corps knows this, and it is preparing to counter it.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:15 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:lol. Taiwan is stuffed to the brim with modern ship killer missiles and air defenses.
Mainland china is only 100 miles from Taiwan. They will take it when they want and nothing anyone can do to stop it.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:28 pm to Ag Zwin
I loled. China and Japan are mortal enemies with both wanting to dominate Asia (and the world) at multiple points in their history.
China needs Taiwan to punish the “white” Chinese dissidents. Research the time from the Chinese revolution til Carter recognized the peoples republic of China has the real China over the republic of China (Taiwan). The white terror era is huge.
No, China will take Taiwan and if the world isn’t ready Japan will start a nuclear war over it.
China needs Taiwan to punish the “white” Chinese dissidents. Research the time from the Chinese revolution til Carter recognized the peoples republic of China has the real China over the republic of China (Taiwan). The white terror era is huge.
No, China will take Taiwan and if the world isn’t ready Japan will start a nuclear war over it.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:33 pm to Smokeyone
quote:
No, China will take Taiwan and if the world isn’t ready Japan will start a nuclear war over it.
You people keep missing my point. How much China wants Taiwan is a good discussion. I could be wrong in my estimation of the desire.
What I stand by, though, is the military difficulty of doing it.
If anybody disagrees, tell us how you would actually pull off this invasion.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:39 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
You don’t sneak 7,000 ships anywhere these days.
I don't think they'll have to be sneaky about it.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:39 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
If anybody disagrees, tell us how you would actually pull off this invasion.
Honestly, this isn't far off from Xi's actual plan.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 12:47 pm to tarzana
quote:you could ask someone from Taiwan and they would say the prc are just rebellions provinces of the Republic of China, which was there first. It was communists in Truman's administration that convinced him to stop backing the nationalists that allowed the communists to take over the mainland in the first place
Exactly. Beijing always has regarded Taiwan as a "renegade province" of the PRC, and it has acted as a mostly autonomous state within China.
Taiwan has never been a sovereign nation, though many right-wingers insist that it is.
This post was edited on 2/27/22 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 2/27/22 at 1:52 pm to The Levee
quote:
I agree with you. Taiwan is an excellent customer to China too
Taiwans number one export customer is chini....why buy it when you can own it.
It will be similar to Hong Kong. Or similar to Ukraine, their choice.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 1:59 pm to Ag Zwin
China views Taiwan in the same manner the federal govt views a state.
Tomorrow, if Cali wanted to secede from the US and china supported them militarily what do you think would be the result? (I know we would let them have it, but seriously).
We have no business over there either. The tax breaks for TSMC to build here really chaps my arse, we should have threatened to tariff their arse if they did not build here, instead we are letting them make a mint here, knowing they will have no factory when china seizes it.
Tomorrow, if Cali wanted to secede from the US and china supported them militarily what do you think would be the result? (I know we would let them have it, but seriously).
We have no business over there either. The tax breaks for TSMC to build here really chaps my arse, we should have threatened to tariff their arse if they did not build here, instead we are letting them make a mint here, knowing they will have no factory when china seizes it.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 2:08 pm to Ag Zwin
It all boils down to how pissed the US would be. Our Navy would own both air and sea to a level probably not seen since late WW2 levels.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 2:21 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
I don’t believe China has that serious of a hard-on to do it. Never met many who thought this was a big deal.
They just made and then released a global pandemic, but yeah, taking Tiwan is a bridge too far?
Interesting.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 2:29 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
China is not invading Taiwan
I thought that said, "now."
My eyes nearly popped out of my head.
Posted on 2/27/22 at 2:30 pm to Ag Zwin
quote:
pull this off occurred in 1944
Well Ag framing your Op like this makes you more right than wrong
But guess what?
Its not 1944. Your premise is so backward and out dated as to be almost a joke. No imagination at all. Its like you think the mongols charging into Taiwan is the only way to overthrow a government and get one that aligns with you.
Have a little imagination sometimes
Posted on 2/27/22 at 3:39 pm to JudgeHolden
Take Taiwan with 50k troops lol. The Chinese wil probably lose 10x that many just trying to cross the straight. Counting reservist Taiwan has like a 3 million soldiers military this will be better trained and better equipped than most of the Chinese. It will take the full weight of the Chinese military and it still isn’t even a slam dunk then
This post was edited on 2/27/22 at 3:40 pm
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