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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:37 am to VolSquatch
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:37 am to VolSquatch
Ok, the Iranians are now confirmng their Caspian Sea vessel has sunk. Just breaks your heart.
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Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:56 am to Coeur du Tigre
If this is accurate, it's a major escalation in the war against the Russian shadow tanker trade. The US took control of another tanker in the Caribbean, which was the sixth tanker seized by the US. And now this.
The Russians have no choice but to defend these tankers with Ru navy assets. Each tanker will have to be escorted while in the Baltic. At the least.
Full story with background here.
The Russians have no choice but to defend these tankers with Ru navy assets. Each tanker will have to be escorted while in the Baltic. At the least.
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This post was edited on 1/15/26 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:08 am to VolSquatch
quote:
They aren't making long term decisions based on a season that comes every single year and slows everything down
Some in this thread have alluded to imminent breakthroughs. Some have indicated the trends are for Russia to keep advancing at a higher level. That isn’t what’s happening.
quote:
Compromising what? Agreeing that they don't have land they don't control? It's not like they are going to agree to actually recognize the land as Russian land.
Agreeing to stopping their attacks and letting Russia alone. That is a compromise, right?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:14 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Putin is worried about losing Haishenwai back to the Chinese, whose ethnic population now exceeds ethnic russians in the city and territory.
Well Vlad, look on the bright side. At least there will be a bunch of good Chinese restaurants open now.
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Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:14 am to doubleb
quote:
That isn’t what’s happening.
It’s the dead of winter
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:44 am to texag7
quote:
It’s the dead of winter
I agree
You don’t have to link that. We know.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:48 am to doubleb
ISW has appropriately, but ominously, begun mapping the control of terrain in Ukraine’s Donetsk Fortress Belt.
The fortress city Kostyantynivka remains on the razor’s edge with Russia advancing on both flanks with little apparent resistance.
The fortress city Kostyantynivka remains on the razor’s edge with Russia advancing on both flanks with little apparent resistance.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:00 am to T1gerNate
From ISW:
Nothing burger.
quote:
RUSSIA & UKRAINE UKRAINE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 14, 2026 JANUARY 14, 2026 Toplines Russian advances slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026, likely due to less advantageous winter weather conditions and the end of efforts to meet arbitrary deadlines at the end of the year.
quote:
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on January 14.
Nothing burger.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:10 am to doubleb
quote:
Some in this thread have alluded to imminent breakthroughs
Like who?
quote:
Some have indicated the trends are for Russia to keep advancing at a higher level. That isn’t what’s happening.
It's winter, advances slow down every winter.
I would imagine the pace will be higher compared to other winter seasons, but we will see. They are also fighting in more dense areas, so the pace will naturally be slower whether it's winter or not (but the gains more notable).
quote:
Agreeing to stopping their attacks and letting Russia alone. That is a compromise, right?
You seen many peace deals where they don't agree to stop fighting? I haven't
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:14 am to texag7
quote:
It’s the dead of winter
I think of this quote
"Most leftist discourse is them pretending to not understand things, thus making discourse impossible"
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:47 am to doubleb
quote:
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on January 14.
ISW is a pro-Ukraine advocacy group. So they say things like no “confirmed advances” while reporting a Russian “infiltration event” on 1/14 on the map I posted. That way, Russia isn’t “advancing.” But it is. That’s why you shouldnt trust the narratives ISW puts out, but you can somewhat trust their maps because they can’t totally destroy their credibility by lying on the maps and embarrassingly having to backtrack.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:01 pm to T1gerNate
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:15 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Like who?
Nate
quote:
It's winter, advances slow down every winter.
You are the trend guy. The trend is a slow down, right?
quote:
You seen many peace deals where they don't agree to stop fighting? I haven't
No, but I haven’t seen many peace deals that we quit fighting and there are no other provisions.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:18 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
ISW is a pro-Ukraine advocacy group. So they say things like no “confirmed advances” while reporting a Russian “infiltration event” on 1/14 on the map I posted. That way, Russia isn’t “advancing.” But it is. That’s why you shouldnt trust the narratives ISW puts out, but you can somewhat trust their maps because they can’t totally destroy their credibility by lying on the maps and embarrassingly having to backtrack
I didn’t know that, we can only use ISW as a source when it suits your agenda.
And I wouldn’t call an infiltration event as advancing, but that’s me.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:19 pm to doubleb
quote:
You are the trend guy. The trend is a slow down, right?
So you think my previous posts were correct, good to know.
A couple of months of mud and cold don't change a broader trend, no.
quote:
we
Interesting wording
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:20 pm to doubleb
quote:
I didn’t know that, we can only use ISW as a source when it suits your agenda.
"Everyone who doesn't see the world exactly as I do has an agenda"
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:25 pm to VolSquatch
I would say the accuracy of ISW reports hover around 10%
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:36 pm to doubleb
quote:
I wouldn’t call an infiltration event as advancing
What about an “infiltration event” where they never leave? See, e.g. Hulyaipole.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:36 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
"Everyone who doesn't see the world exactly as I do has an agenda"
His agenda is to prove Russia is about to make a decisive breakthrough. He uses ISW to do that and provides his own analysis.
On the other hand your agenda is to b Ed the wingman and seek to engage in banter with pro Ukraine posters. You repeatedly do that.
Why?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:38 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
So you think my previous posts were correct, good to know.
They were, the trend was Russia had slightly increased their movements. It was well documented.
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