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Started By
Message
re: Update: Situation in Iran thread
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:43 am to SidewalkDawg
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:43 am to SidewalkDawg
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
All the headlines like these are examples of reporting that are beyond inaccurate. The circumstances around the necessary, decisive action to be taken against the evil Iranian regime have nothing to do with President Trump’s will or determination.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Quite the opposite. Stay tuned.
This post was edited on 1/15/26 at 8:58 am
0
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:56 am to WeeWee
quote:
Trump apparently almost green-lit a strike on Iran late last night, then pulled the plug minutes before execution. Iranian airspace has reopened and forces scrambled from Al-Udeid were told to stand down.
Wow. TACO Trump
This is seriously disappointing and Trump looks very weak here
Posted on 1/15/26 at 8:58 am to VolInBavaria
quote:
know I'm gonna get downvoted but Trump is being a dumbass with this whole situation. He's screwing over these people hardcore. Him flip-flopping over everything is annoying as shite sometimes.
This. He caved because Iran says they won’t execute one prisoner? I guess frick those thousands being murdered in the streets
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:03 am to Houag80
quote:
Looks like the mullahs were offered a deal....relinquish power, save your families and move to Russia or some other Muslim shithole...or stay and we will end your bloodline within 6 hours.
Maybe but the Mullahs are likely playing Trump like China does on trade. They’ll tell him what he wants to hear and offer a few token wins in good faith to try to bide their time and run out the clock.
The mullahs only need a week maybe less to quash the protestors if nobody intervenes. They’ll get discouraged and give up.
Mullahs will die for their cause before they give up power
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:07 am to deltaland
I see the Panicans are alive and well.
Anyone thinking he is weak is on the side of Biden and his goonies. Panicans forget so quickly we just extracted someone who stole an election in VZ. And you knew nothing about it.
Trump won’t strike on your schedule, that would mean enemy knows too and can better prepare.
He likely is buying time to prepare while getting them to stop executions.
I have a Trump signed original “The Art of the Deal”. He is a master of deception.
Stop getting caught up in videos. We don’t know all the facts other than people are dying and protesting. The US can only assist in efforts but the citizens will need to do all the heavy lifting to gain their country back. That will require blood. And if it works that will be something they remember and cherish how hard freedom is to get and would give it a longer chance to survive.
Anyone thinking he is weak is on the side of Biden and his goonies. Panicans forget so quickly we just extracted someone who stole an election in VZ. And you knew nothing about it.
Trump won’t strike on your schedule, that would mean enemy knows too and can better prepare.
He likely is buying time to prepare while getting them to stop executions.
I have a Trump signed original “The Art of the Deal”. He is a master of deception.
Stop getting caught up in videos. We don’t know all the facts other than people are dying and protesting. The US can only assist in efforts but the citizens will need to do all the heavy lifting to gain their country back. That will require blood. And if it works that will be something they remember and cherish how hard freedom is to get and would give it a longer chance to survive.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:15 am to deltaland
Dude you’re always quick to freak out about something. Take a deep breath
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:16 am to SDVTiger
quote:
None of you clowns have any idea whats going on
I know two things.
1. Bombs did not fall on Iran last night.
2. There is a UNSC meeting this afternoon.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:17 am to WeeWee
So if we hypothetically think ahead and say Iran becomes a Shahi again.
What would they do differently to ensure 1979 doesn’t happen again? What circumstances would make this avoidable? Who really would want that guy’s son to come back for the same role? Things got very bad in Iran before he left in multiple ways.
A good relationship with the west isn’t enough. Are they able to emulate the leadership to its people like Saudi/Oman/Kuwait/Jordan/etc. while maintaining good terms with the west?
What would they do differently to ensure 1979 doesn’t happen again? What circumstances would make this avoidable? Who really would want that guy’s son to come back for the same role? Things got very bad in Iran before he left in multiple ways.
A good relationship with the west isn’t enough. Are they able to emulate the leadership to its people like Saudi/Oman/Kuwait/Jordan/etc. while maintaining good terms with the west?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:20 am to Jrv2damac
quote:
What would they do differently to ensure 1979 doesn’t happen again? What circumstances would make this avoidable? Who really would want that guy’s son to come back for the same role? Things got very bad in Iran before he left in multiple ways.
Just don't allow a coalition of Russian backed communists and mullahs pitch a fit and play like it is a mass uprising. That's all that happened in the late 70's. Also, don't have a failed peanut farmer as a president who thinks that mullahs are good. The crowds are shouting for his return to lead them.
This post was edited on 1/15/26 at 9:22 am
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:23 am to Jrv2damac
quote:
So if we hypothetically think ahead and say Iran becomes a Shahi again.
What would they do differently to ensure 1979 doesn’t happen again?
Thats why although very sad to see - them giving their own blood for freedom will matter to sustain long afterwards. If they obtain it, they will cherish and nurture freedom from tyranny. There will be a high cost. But a great reward.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:27 am to Jrv2damac
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:38 am to VolInBavaria
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
NEW
The United States imposed sanctions on Iranian officials accused of involvement in the crackdown on protesters, the Treasury Department said.
9:36 AM · Jan 15, 2026
@Osint613
NEW
The United States imposed sanctions on Iranian officials accused of involvement in the crackdown on protesters, the Treasury Department said.
9:36 AM · Jan 15, 2026
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:43 am to OU Guy
Good summary
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
For the sake of argument, assume Trump is persuaded not to strike the regime. Protesters stay home out of fear of being shot, arrested, or executed. The streets quiet down.
Does life return to normal?
Even setting aside the killings, the Iranian regime has no exit from economic collapse. The country is trapped in a structural death spiral that is self reinforcing and largely immune to short term fixes.
The fundamentals are broken. Years of U.S. sanctions, now intensified under Trump with 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, combined with corruption, mismanagement, and oil dependence have hollowed out the economy. Inflation is running above 40%, food prices have jumped more than 70% in a year, and the rial has collapsed to roughly 1.45 million to the dollar. The World Bank expects continued contraction through 2026, with no rebound without major sanctions relief, which is not coming under maximum pressure.
Daily life is deteriorating. Power outages, water shortages, unemployment, and collapsing public services have turned economic hardship into a survival crisis. The regime’s responses are cosmetic. A $7 monthly allowance for a population of 80 million and reshuffling central bank officials do nothing in a system drained by corruption. Internet shutdowns meant to suppress protests are backfiring economically, costing over $1.5 million per hour and keeping businesses closed in major cities.
Even if fear suppresses protests temporarily, nothing fundamental improves. Foreign investment does not return. The budget deficit, already above 6% of GDP, remains. Capital flight and brain drain accelerate. The result is not stability but stagnation.
Politically, repression only deepens the rot. Protests that began over prices have evolved into open rejection of the regime. Turnout is collapsing. Infrastructure is being attacked. In a scenario where people retreat indoors, Iran risks becoming a zombie state with shortages, zero growth, and permanent resentment waiting for the next spark, whether a fuel hike, a blackout, or another currency crash.
Normalcy would require structural reform, sanctions relief, or a leadership overhaul. None are on the table.
The regime may survive through fear, but the economy ensures normal life is a fantasy. Avoiding a U.S. strike would not solve Iran’s crisis. It would only stretch the suffering over a longer, slower collapse.
8:05 AM · Jan 15, 2026
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
For the sake of argument, assume Trump is persuaded not to strike the regime. Protesters stay home out of fear of being shot, arrested, or executed. The streets quiet down.
Does life return to normal?
Even setting aside the killings, the Iranian regime has no exit from economic collapse. The country is trapped in a structural death spiral that is self reinforcing and largely immune to short term fixes.
The fundamentals are broken. Years of U.S. sanctions, now intensified under Trump with 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran, combined with corruption, mismanagement, and oil dependence have hollowed out the economy. Inflation is running above 40%, food prices have jumped more than 70% in a year, and the rial has collapsed to roughly 1.45 million to the dollar. The World Bank expects continued contraction through 2026, with no rebound without major sanctions relief, which is not coming under maximum pressure.
Daily life is deteriorating. Power outages, water shortages, unemployment, and collapsing public services have turned economic hardship into a survival crisis. The regime’s responses are cosmetic. A $7 monthly allowance for a population of 80 million and reshuffling central bank officials do nothing in a system drained by corruption. Internet shutdowns meant to suppress protests are backfiring economically, costing over $1.5 million per hour and keeping businesses closed in major cities.
Even if fear suppresses protests temporarily, nothing fundamental improves. Foreign investment does not return. The budget deficit, already above 6% of GDP, remains. Capital flight and brain drain accelerate. The result is not stability but stagnation.
Politically, repression only deepens the rot. Protests that began over prices have evolved into open rejection of the regime. Turnout is collapsing. Infrastructure is being attacked. In a scenario where people retreat indoors, Iran risks becoming a zombie state with shortages, zero growth, and permanent resentment waiting for the next spark, whether a fuel hike, a blackout, or another currency crash.
Normalcy would require structural reform, sanctions relief, or a leadership overhaul. None are on the table.
The regime may survive through fear, but the economy ensures normal life is a fantasy. Avoiding a U.S. strike would not solve Iran’s crisis. It would only stretch the suffering over a longer, slower collapse.
8:05 AM · Jan 15, 2026
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:44 am to Reagan80
quote:
a lot of Iranians put their lives on the line because they thought Trump would help them.
This got a lot of people killed of nothing happens:
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:49 am to OU Guy
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. "We know that like RATS on a sinking ship, you're frantically wiring funds stolen from Iranian families to banks and financial institutions around the world!"
"Rest assured we will track them and you, but there's still time if you choose to join us. As President Trump has said, stop the violence and stand with the people of Iran."
Bessent is now economically starving their top leadership!
"The currency and living conditions are in freefall. The early warning signs are already flashing in the Iranian economy...Hyperinflation is next."
"Today's sanctions target 18 individuals and entities that the regime uses to evade sanctions on Iranian oil and divert proceeds from its energy sales away from the rightful owners, the Iranian people."
"Tehran's natural resources belong to its people and not its brutal dictators. Treasury will continue to target Iranian networks and corrupt elites that enrich themselves at the expense of average Iranian."
Posted on 1/15/26 at 9:50 am to PorkSammich
I wonder why Lindsey Graham is so invested in this. Probably because he is such a great humanitarian.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:07 am to deltaland
quote:
The mullahs only need a week maybe less to quash the protestors if nobody intervenes
They start killing again Trump approves the attack and claims he tried to take the Mullahs at their word, but they're untrustworthy. Meanwhile assets are arriving and hopefully in place for full scale arse whipping.
I'm sure there will be some military action yet.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:10 am to Ailsa
Trump let them off the hook, they won’t go anywhere. The regime won again.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:52 am to Jrv2damac
quote:
So if we hypothetically think ahead and say Iran becomes a Shahi again.
What would they do differently to ensure 1979 doesn’t happen again? What circumstances would make this avoidable?
I am no political expert or expert on the Middle East or Central Asia or anything like that. However, I do pretend to be on the internet (sarcasm). Iran has had a functioning parliament for the past 50 years or so. The only problem is that candidates had to be approved by the Guardian Council. If I was designing the government I would start by doing away with the IRGC, the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the Supreme National Security Council. I would bring the Shah back as a constitutional monarch and I would give him more power than European monarchs but less power than the Arab monarchs who are absolute monarchs. The Shah would be the head of state and the head of government. The Shah would be allowed to appoint and dismiss members of the cabinet and other executive officials with approval by the legislature. The Shah would also have veto powers over legislation. The Shah would be able to call emergency sessions of the legislature but he would not be able to dismiss the legislature.
The legislature would be able to override the Shah's veto with a 2/3rds majority. The legislature will be made up of 2 house. The lower house would be a traditional house of representative which is elected by the people and open to any candidate. Since tribes or ethnic groups are still very important in that part of the world, the upper house or Senate would be composed of 4 members from each of the tribes or ethnic groups. That way representation from each ethnic group or tribe is equal in at least one part of the government. The lower house would have the power to impeach any executive official appointed by the Shah but not the Shah himself. The upper house would have the power to try, convict, and remove the official.
The 20 providences will each have their own legislature. The Shah would be able to appoint the governor who would then appoint the other executive officials of each providence. The legislature of each providence would have to approve all of these executive officials. The providential legislatures would also have the power to impeach and remove any executive official for that providence.
The judiciary would be secular with judges who are appointed by the Shah and confirmed by the legislature. Their terms would be 5 years in length and then they would have to be reappointed by the Shah and confirmed by the legislature. Judges would be term limited to 15 years on the bench total. The Supreme Court of Iran would be made up of 9 justices. Four of the justices will be appointed by the legislature without input from the Shah. 4 of the other justices will be appointed by the Shah without input from the legislature. The Chief Justice would be appointed by the Shah and must be confirmed by 75% of both houses of the legislature. The term for the Supreme Court Justices would be 20 years and they could not be reappointed at the end of their term.
The military would be under the control of the Shah but the commanders of each branch must be approved by the legislature and could be impeached by the legislature.
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