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re: Update: War in Iran thread
Posted on 1/14/26 at 8:49 pm to Victor R Franko
Posted on 1/14/26 at 8:49 pm to Victor R Franko
quote:
Israel goes nuclear, you can bet your arse on that. As a minimum, Beijing or Moscow, or both can kiss the baby.
Israel isn’t nuking anyone, much less another nuclear state. Of course, neither Russia or China are bombing Israel either.
2
Posted on 1/14/26 at 8:54 pm to Indefatigable
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
Iran recently warned Qatar it would strike the country in retaliation if the U.S. attacks Iran, a senior official told the Washington Post.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 8:55 pm to OU Guy
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Scott Bessent reveals Treasury is tracking tens of millions of dollars fleeing Iran as its leaders know the end is near and try to escape sanctions.
The Treasury Secretary called it “rats fleeing the ship.”
BESSENT: “And Rob the other thing as Treasury who carries out the sanctions we can see is we are now seeing the rats fleeing the ship because we can see millions, tens of millions of dollars being wired out of the country, snuck out of the country by the Iranian leadership.”
“So they are abandoning ship, and we are seeing it come into banks and financial institutions all over the world.”
“And what we do at Treasury is we follow the money, whether it is through the banking system or through digital assets.”
“We are going to trace these assets and they will not be able to keep them.”
Posted on 1/14/26 at 8:56 pm to Indefatigable
So Iran ended up crushing the "protests" after all. cia/mossad foiled again
Posted on 1/14/26 at 8:56 pm to hawgfaninc
quote:
“We are going to trace these assets and they will not be able to keep them.”
Most important part
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:00 pm to hawgfaninc
It's the end of the regime.
1) their economy is gone. It was the reason the protests started. Whatever was holding it up, no more.
2) they already have video of the mass killings. Once the Internet gets turned back on, or engineers find a way to get the star links back up, those videos go global.
It's over
Just a matter of details and timeline. Which is the scary part.
1) their economy is gone. It was the reason the protests started. Whatever was holding it up, no more.
2) they already have video of the mass killings. Once the Internet gets turned back on, or engineers find a way to get the star links back up, those videos go global.
It's over
Just a matter of details and timeline. Which is the scary part.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:05 pm to hawgfaninc
quote:
That’s the only reason I see that would make Khamenei not go through with the executions & more killings, all while knowing the US continues to build their forces in the region.
"We won't shoot your plane down when you flee to Russia if the prisoners are spared."
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:06 pm to Bronco11
quote:
It's the end of the regime.
1) their economy is gone. It was the reason the protests started. Whatever was holding it up, no more.
2) they already have video of the mass killings. Once the Internet gets turned back on, or engineers find a way to get the star links back up, those videos go global.
It's over
Just a matter of details and timeline. Which is the scary part.
US boots on the ground is the only way to end the regime. these manufactured protests and bombing from the air won't do it
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 9:07 pm
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:21 pm to Pettifogger
The desire to do something for the Iranian people likely lies in our own desires for corrupt government that doesn't represent the will of its people to be overthrown. It has been long delayed here, so if we have the power to aid in that for another oppressed nation, it would be a sense of the world moving towards freedom.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:22 pm to Boodis Man
They have been talking about needing to evacuate parts of Teheran due to an acute shortage of water. That’s one way to lose the populace.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:45 pm to Lou Pai
Part of the reason for water shortage is Mullahs selling Iran's water to other nations via pipeline, ship, etc...
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:54 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:54 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 1/14/26 at 9:57 pm to 10thyrsr
quote:
The desire to do something for the Iranian people likely lies in our own desires for corrupt government that doesn't represent the will of its people to be overthrown. It has been long delayed here, so if we have the power to aid in that for another oppressed nation, it would be a sense of the world moving towards freedom.
I can easily make the moral case for intervention - we knew of Iran when it wasn't this way, we've seen multiple organic and good faith uprisings quashed, Iran is a massive sponsor of anti-American activity over the decade, and so forth.
The major questions, IMO
- The three most influential lobbies right now are the Neocon class, Iranian expats/their supporting backers, and Israel/Israel-firsters (lots of overlap there) all of whom we should assume are being less than fully candid about the receptiveness to our involvement on the ground, and what's happening on the ground generally.
- Trump is showing a pattern of pushing limited involvement that precludes quagmire, but what are the less foreseeable circumstances where that changes? Alternatively, who are the influential people in the administration who may push for a shift in thinking from regime breaking to nation building?
- What are all the possible ways this destabilization comes back to screw us and our kids?
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:03 pm to Pettifogger
That is an accurate assessment of the situation. We just don't know, but the question is do we want what Iran is, or do we choose to reroll the dice and see if we can do better.
ETA: the opportunity to do this rarely comes. We have the chance to influence this while sentiment is in our favor.
ETA: the opportunity to do this rarely comes. We have the chance to influence this while sentiment is in our favor.
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:07 pm to hawgfaninc
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:11 pm to hawgfaninc
There are no deals being made. The Ayatollah could get on a plane at any point and go where he wants with his family. He runs the country.
If Iranian forces are killing people, he is still in control and able to do as he wishes.
If Iranian forces are killing people, he is still in control and able to do as he wishes.
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:16 pm to hawgfaninc
Good place to bookmark.
I want to thank everyone in this thread for every bit of information. You guys and gals are the news. Some of it good, some of it is absolute horsechit.
That is why I love this place.
I want to thank everyone in this thread for every bit of information. You guys and gals are the news. Some of it good, some of it is absolute horsechit.
That is why I love this place.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:16 pm to 10thyrsr
Yeah that doesn’t make much sense. Many thought he had already left the country days or weeks ago.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 10:59 pm to SlickRick55
quote:
Many thought he had already left the country days or weeks ago.
What morons thought that?
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