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Super Bowl squares scenario
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:12 pm
So I have been presented with this new (to me) concept of squares. The deal is each square costs $300 and they pay out each score. Example: Seattle scores the first TD and the score is 6-0 the person that has the 6-0 square wins $1500.00. Then they kick the extra point to make it 7-0, whoever has the 7-0 square wins 1500.00 and so on. There is a total of $30K in the pot and they use a divider of 20 (scores) for the payout to be $1500 for each score. If by chance there is more than 20 scores, the Admin will announce how much is left in the pot and next score (or last score) wins what is left in the pot. So far, 60 squares have been sold. I am thinking of buying the remaining 40 squares for $12K. This obviously gives me a 40% chance on hitting each score. If the $1,500 payout for each square stays true (which is always has), I would have to hit it 8 times.
Upvote-if you think these are good odds and I should do it.
Downvote-if you think I am crazy to do so.
Upvote-if you think these are good odds and I should do it.
Downvote-if you think I am crazy to do so.
10
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:15 pm to SouthlakeTiger
You're assuming all squares are created equal.
They aren't. The ones with the higher likelihood of hitting are almost certainly already purchased.
They aren't. The ones with the higher likelihood of hitting are almost certainly already purchased.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:16 pm to Odysseus32
Score numbers have not been drawn yet. Picking a square right now is like throwing a dart on a board.
This post was edited on 1/31/26 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:18 pm to Odysseus32
quote:You dont know what numbers you'll get when you buy a square.
The ones with the higher likelihood of hitting are almost certainly already purchased
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:19 pm to SouthlakeTiger
quote:
Score numbers have not been drawn yet. Picking a square right now is like throwing a dart in a board.
That's even more disadvantageous.
There exists a chance you purchase 40 lemons. An incredibly small chance, but a chance.
This is a bad idea.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:20 pm to Odysseus32
quote:
They aren't. The ones with the higher likelihood of hitting are almost certainly already purchased
I have never played a game of squares where the numbers were determined before all of the squares had been purchased
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:22 pm to SouthlakeTiger
Just buy a square or 2 and play the game like a normal dude… not some gambling addict loser trying to win a few grand as if it’s going to change your life.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:23 pm to SouthlakeTiger
Some squares will be garbage. Very low odds.
5-5, 5-6, 6-5, 8-8.
Having to hit 8 times is rough, although your odds can go up if squares are adjacent since you would cash in on both the TD and PAT.
I looked up last year and this is the list of winning squares:
6-0
7-0
0-0
6-0 again
7-0 again
3-0
4-0
7-0 third time
3-0 again
4-0 again
4-6
7-6
0-6
0-2
0-4
0-0
0-2 again
So if you have the Chiefs entire 0 column you win. If not, you're screwed.
5-5, 5-6, 6-5, 8-8.
Having to hit 8 times is rough, although your odds can go up if squares are adjacent since you would cash in on both the TD and PAT.
I looked up last year and this is the list of winning squares:
6-0
7-0
0-0
6-0 again
7-0 again
3-0
4-0
7-0 third time
3-0 again
4-0 again
4-6
7-6
0-6
0-2
0-4
0-0
0-2 again
So if you have the Chiefs entire 0 column you win. If not, you're screwed.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:24 pm to SouthlakeTiger
Some of the squares will hit twice or even three times. For example 7-0, 17-0, 17-10, 27-10, 27-20 and possibly more. So just because you get the rest doesn’t mean the chance is equally distributed. Just because it’s 40% chance doesn’t mean it will happen. It is part of the deal of gambling though. If it would be guaranteed, it wouldn’t exist.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:26 pm to Rouge
quote:
I have never played a game of squares where the numbers were determined before all of the squares had been purchased
I'm shocked that this is such common knowledge.
OP, I don't think the point of these boards is to try to game the system. It's to have fun and be part of a like minded group.
I'm autistic and I can even see that.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:26 pm to SouthlakeTiger
quote:I'll take Rose Marie to block
Super Bowl squares
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:26 pm to SouthlakeTiger
quote:
This obviously gives me a 40% chance on hitting each score
Not all squares are equal as not all squares have the same value. Your odds are with the numbers assigned to your square, not the football game picking your number.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:27 pm to SouthlakeTiger
Entered your strategy with all the details provided into two different AI models and neither seems to think the odds of profiting are favorable. Are you cool if the outcome means taking a loss and just want to ride the lightening for the rush?
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:31 pm to SouthlakeTiger
quote:
This obviously gives me a 40% chance on hitting each score.
You serious??
Think this through.
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:54 pm to SouthlakeTiger
Don't do it.. If I bought a square I would be pissed at you for being greedy.. If you consider the people that are playing you can forget that friendship...One time I was playing video poker and hit the jack pot and I ended up buying a couple of $50 squares and I hit one of them for $500. I just bought 2 with the poker winnings and people were not happy about it...
Posted on 1/31/26 at 7:59 pm to SouthlakeTiger
I'm in a group that does something similar, but we play $25 a square because we're not OT rich.
The first winner is whoever has 0-0. The total pot is split by the total number of score changes going forward including extra points. Each hit is a "share" for that square holder. Obviously, the share decreases with each score. Still, it's a lot more fun because there are more winners and even bad numbers have a better chance to win than just the "End of Quarter" style. You can more than double your money with one hit if there aren't more than 50 score changes (which would be insane...I think we had like 20-25 last year in a high-scoring game with a lot of garbage time).
I'd also suggest that the rules make a stipulation about rounding payouts to the nearest dollar and giving any remainders to a random winner. No one wants to deal with loose change.
The first winner is whoever has 0-0. The total pot is split by the total number of score changes going forward including extra points. Each hit is a "share" for that square holder. Obviously, the share decreases with each score. Still, it's a lot more fun because there are more winners and even bad numbers have a better chance to win than just the "End of Quarter" style. You can more than double your money with one hit if there aren't more than 50 score changes (which would be insane...I think we had like 20-25 last year in a high-scoring game with a lot of garbage time).
I'd also suggest that the rules make a stipulation about rounding payouts to the nearest dollar and giving any remainders to a random winner. No one wants to deal with loose change.
This post was edited on 1/31/26 at 8:03 pm
Posted on 1/31/26 at 8:05 pm to Odysseus32
quote::facepalm:
They aren't. The ones with the higher likelihood of hitting are almost certainly already purchased.
What kind of football square pools are you playing? The numbers for each row and column aren’t drawn until after all the squares are sold. Otherwise, why would anyone buy squares once the good numbers are taken? You think anyone would knowingly buy 2 and 9?
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