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Started By
Message
For People Who Don't Seem To Understand This War...
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:05 am
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:05 am
And who are asking things like, "How does it benefit the average US citizen?" let's talk about a coupe of theories. Both are cascade theories.
1. Cascade Theory #1—The Acquisition Cascade. If Iran were to acquire working nuclear weapons, other countries would clamor to get them as well. Saudi Arabia has explicitly stated their intentions to acquire nukes if Iran gets them, and Turkey has as much as said it, and Egypt isn't far behind.
In this scenario the US is taking a risk by crippling Iran. Some of these countries may conclude that their only protection against something similar happening to them is to acquire nukes. Or, they may conclude that they aren't going to try because the US might do to them what they are doing to Iran right now.
In any case, the first cascade is the cascade of other countries who will attempt to acquire if Iran does, which then goes to the second theory...
2. Cascade Theory #2—The use cascade. If Iran acquires nukes, they will be used on Israel. Either as a first strike or a retaliatory strike when Israel nukes them after having had another few thousand conventional rockets fired at them.
And Pakistan—who already has nuclear weapons—would be awful, awful tempted to use theirs in religious solidarity against Israel also.
And people forget that India and Pakistan spent 2025 engaging in war with each other on three fronts and already have nuclear weapons pointed at each other in a very fragile (and oft violated) cease fire. if Pakistan demonstrates that they are willing to pull the trigger on Israel, India may figure they are next, and they may decide they'd rather hit first than hit back.
And with all of those countries using nuclear weapons, N. Korea might decide it's their opportunity to nuke S. Korea and Japan. That last one is less likely than the others, but you get the idea.
Iran, really, really, really doesn't need to get nuclear weapons. It would very likely end up affecting pretty much everybody.
And that's just the nuclear angle. We haven't even talked about the terrorism angle.
1. Cascade Theory #1—The Acquisition Cascade. If Iran were to acquire working nuclear weapons, other countries would clamor to get them as well. Saudi Arabia has explicitly stated their intentions to acquire nukes if Iran gets them, and Turkey has as much as said it, and Egypt isn't far behind.
In this scenario the US is taking a risk by crippling Iran. Some of these countries may conclude that their only protection against something similar happening to them is to acquire nukes. Or, they may conclude that they aren't going to try because the US might do to them what they are doing to Iran right now.
In any case, the first cascade is the cascade of other countries who will attempt to acquire if Iran does, which then goes to the second theory...
2. Cascade Theory #2—The use cascade. If Iran acquires nukes, they will be used on Israel. Either as a first strike or a retaliatory strike when Israel nukes them after having had another few thousand conventional rockets fired at them.
And Pakistan—who already has nuclear weapons—would be awful, awful tempted to use theirs in religious solidarity against Israel also.
And people forget that India and Pakistan spent 2025 engaging in war with each other on three fronts and already have nuclear weapons pointed at each other in a very fragile (and oft violated) cease fire. if Pakistan demonstrates that they are willing to pull the trigger on Israel, India may figure they are next, and they may decide they'd rather hit first than hit back.
And with all of those countries using nuclear weapons, N. Korea might decide it's their opportunity to nuke S. Korea and Japan. That last one is less likely than the others, but you get the idea.
Iran, really, really, really doesn't need to get nuclear weapons. It would very likely end up affecting pretty much everybody.
And that's just the nuclear angle. We haven't even talked about the terrorism angle.
19
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:07 am to wackatimesthree
Do people not remember North Korea during the Obama years?
Iran would be 10x worse.
Iran would be 10x worse.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:10 am to wackatimesthree
Just curious, what's the trigger that indicates an end to this war?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:13 am to wackatimesthree
quote:
And that's just the nuclear angle. We haven't even talked about the terrorism angle.
Or repositioning global dependencies to cut off China's nearly free access to energy.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:14 am to wackatimesthree
And Iran, or Persia, is a HUGE country with a lot of people and, unlike the "arabs", the Persians are actually a really great, educated, and cultured people. Sure, a lot of people on this board think that every single Iranian is a towel-headed rag head muzzie, but in reality most Iranians hate Islam, prefer Christianity, and have come to detest the mullahs and want to rejoin the rest of the modern world (like they were before the '70s).
So getting them away from Islam and (hopefully) helping them move towards a much more stable and great nation again can only be a good thing for the US. We can certainly do without more muslim countries... like anywhere.
Just like Communism, it can only be a good thing when Islam completely dies off.
So getting them away from Islam and (hopefully) helping them move towards a much more stable and great nation again can only be a good thing for the US. We can certainly do without more muslim countries... like anywhere.
Just like Communism, it can only be a good thing when Islam completely dies off.
This post was edited on 3/4/26 at 10:16 am
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:18 am to mwrawls
This is all about China. Venezuela, Iran, next Cuba.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:22 am to GumboPot
quote:
Just curious, what's the trigger that indicates an end to this war?
There is no “trigger”, but I’d say the war ends when the US ceases military action against Iran and starts sending ships elsewhere.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:22 am to GumboPot
Just curious, what's the trigger that indicates an end to this war?
Rubio and others have only said this 25 times.
End the capabilities of Iran terror in the region. Seems like Iran is running on fumes. The leader will be someone who respects the US, similar to new Venezuelan leader
Rubio and others have only said this 25 times.
End the capabilities of Iran terror in the region. Seems like Iran is running on fumes. The leader will be someone who respects the US, similar to new Venezuelan leader
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:23 am to wackatimesthree
Whole lotta words just to say
"This is same situation we were told about Iraq circa late 90's/early 2000's"
But hey, we can use the same thought process as long as it works...right
"This is same situation we were told about Iraq circa late 90's/early 2000's"
But hey, we can use the same thought process as long as it works...right
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:24 am to wackatimesthree
quote:
And that's just the nuclear angle. We haven't even talked about the terrorism angle.
might want to add the threat of Iran lobbing one of those nukes at our shores. That's been pointed out as well but doesn't seem to get much replay.
Many opposed to this action seem to think Iran's nuclear threat wasn't imminent or could be placated. That simply wasn't the case given who was in charge in Tehran. That's why they are gone.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:25 am to mwrawls
quote:
unlike the "arabs", the Persians are actually a really great, educated, and cultured people. Sure, a lot of people on this board think that every single Iranian is a towel-headed rag head muzzie, but in reality most Iranians hate Islam, prefer Christianity, and have come to detest the mullahs and want to rejoin the rest of the modern world (like they were before the '70s).
You are wrong when you say they prefer Christianity. Other than that, you described Arabs as well as Persians. Also, Iran’s population is only about 60% Persian. The rest is mostly Azerbaijanis with some Kurds.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:29 am to wackatimesthree
The panicans will downvote you for having a rational take. They would only be happy if the target was Israel instead of Iran
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:34 am to wackatimesthree
What intel gathered had any truth to this? Did we not blow their facility up months ago? And in the following months they somehow gathered material and resources to build another and then enrich again?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:35 am to cajuntiger1010
quote:
The leader will be someone who respects the US, similar to new Venezuelan leader
Tell me you don't know anything about Iran without telling me you know nothing about Iran.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:37 am to cajuntiger1010
Has he indicated what we will do if a civil war breaks out?
Will we pick a side and give them billions and billions of dollars for however long it takes? Or will we send in troops?
Are we obligated to take in refugees, or just tell them tough shite?
Will we pick a side and give them billions and billions of dollars for however long it takes? Or will we send in troops?
Are we obligated to take in refugees, or just tell them tough shite?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:38 am to wackatimesthree
I hate to say this, but think this aggression will be marked in history as one of the “beginnings” of the end of American influence.
We have started a war with a major military power with 1) no clear end state and 2) no backing from the Congress.
We have started a war with a major military power with 1) no clear end state and 2) no backing from the Congress.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:40 am to wackatimesthree
This is not being done because of nuclear weapons, but for the sake of argument I'll pretend you're right.
If everything you say is true, then how do you prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons beyond the hyper-short term? What is the macro, long term goal for what you want to happen in Iran? Unless the United States dramatically steps up its direct involvement on the ground, the most likely outcome of these limited airstrikes is simply re-affirming the rationality and necessity (from the regime's point of view) of acquiring nuclear weapons ASAP. Are we just going to keep bombing Iran every year until Trump's term ends? What do you think that is going to end up accomplishing?
If everything you say is true, then how do you prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons beyond the hyper-short term? What is the macro, long term goal for what you want to happen in Iran? Unless the United States dramatically steps up its direct involvement on the ground, the most likely outcome of these limited airstrikes is simply re-affirming the rationality and necessity (from the regime's point of view) of acquiring nuclear weapons ASAP. Are we just going to keep bombing Iran every year until Trump's term ends? What do you think that is going to end up accomplishing?
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:41 am to cajuntiger1010
quote:
End the capabilities of Iran terror in the region.
Can you expand on "capabilities"?
If the threshold is "Iran terror in the region" we are going to be in this campaign for a long time. I guess the administration will call a lull in Iranian terror in the region sufficient to say the war has ended.
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:42 am to wackatimesthree
People here are cheering it on but it is going to be the end of the USA in the region. Turkey is going to ask us to leave because of this. The gulf states are not going to want us there now either, they could work with china and china doesn’t start random, reckless wars. Maybe even Japan and Korea will start looking even harder at their alliances with us and our strategic bases there. The strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal are defacto going to be shut down and the economy will be hurting. Gas is already up where I am.
There was zero plan in place for any of this. We let Israel drag us in to a war with zero strategy. Regime change isn’t going to happen and the Iranians have their command and defenses decentralized. This is an absolute disaster. How the frick do we get out of this mess? We already asked Iran to negotiate and they told us to frick off.
The worst thing about it is none of it was necessary. We were already negotiating. We’ve been bombing them for years. There was no imminent threat to the USA, that’s just the same old bullshite they sold us with Iraq. A completely unforced error.
There was zero plan in place for any of this. We let Israel drag us in to a war with zero strategy. Regime change isn’t going to happen and the Iranians have their command and defenses decentralized. This is an absolute disaster. How the frick do we get out of this mess? We already asked Iran to negotiate and they told us to frick off.
The worst thing about it is none of it was necessary. We were already negotiating. We’ve been bombing them for years. There was no imminent threat to the USA, that’s just the same old bullshite they sold us with Iraq. A completely unforced error.
This post was edited on 3/4/26 at 10:45 am
Posted on 3/4/26 at 10:48 am to EastWestConnection
quote:
People here are cheering it on but it is going to be the end of the USA in the region. Turkey is going to ask us to leave because of this. The gulf states are not going to want us there now either, they could work with china and china doesn’t start random, reckless wars.
If the gulf states turn on us that will be a MAJOR escalation. The only thing holding this together are the Sunnis enmity to the Shias and vice versa.
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