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Punchbowl News Article: Louisiana Senate GOP primary gets loopy
Posted on 4/20/26 at 10:12 am
Posted on 4/20/26 at 10:12 am
quote:
The Republican Senate primary in Louisiana has become a mess.
The two-term incumbent senator is at risk of not even making the primary runoff, and he’s fuming at the Senate Republican establishment for not helping him enough.
President Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate has been unable to convert that golden-ticket endorsement into a definitive lead.
And a third candidate who said he ignored entreaties to drop out from people close to Trump has emerged as a real threat to win.
The uncertainty and chaos within just five weeks to the May 16 primary has caught the White House, Trump allies and the Republican establishment by surprise, throwing a wrench in what was supposed to be a low-drama contest. Republicans aren’t going to lose the Louisiana Senate seat, but it’s definitely not going the way GOP power players thought it would.
Former Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), a co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus, is pulling a significant chunk of the vote in public and private polling, muddying what should’ve been a glide path to the Senate for the Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.).
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) voted to convict Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, which was always going to be a problem in a Republican primary. Cassidy and his allies have been dumping money on TV ads hitting Letlow.
It’s highly unlikely any candidate will clear 50% in the GOP primary, meaning this race is headed to a June runoff. Polling shows all three relatively close together. Letlow has a lead in two recent independent polls.
At this point, Republican insiders believe any of the three candidates could advance.
Yet those same Republicans are convinced that either Letlow or Fleming would beat Cassidy in a runoff.
quote:
Cassidy is furious at the NRSC and Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s political machine because he feels they haven’t fully supported his reelection bid. Thune fundraised with Cassidy in January in Baton Rouge, raking in over $650,000 at the event. The NRSC has also cut video ads featuring Cassidy.
But in a tense call with the NRSC, Cassidy said the committee wasn’t spending enough on his behalf during the primary. NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper, in a response that included profanity, shot back that Cassidy shouldn’t have voted to convict Trump, according to multiple sources familiar with the call.
The NRSC and Cassidy’s campaign both declined to comment.
Cassidy isn’t short on funds. The HELP Committee chair and his allied groups began the year with a collective $26 million in the bank. They’ve blanketed the airwaves with a slew of ads slamming the 45-year-old Letlow, accusing her of failing to properly disclose her stock trading while in office and pursuing DEI policies as an official at a Louisiana university. “Liberal Letlow” and “Pelican State Pelosi” have become go-to lines for Cassidy.
Cassidy has spent $5.1 million on ads, per AdImpact. His super PAC, Louisiana Freedom Fund, has spent a whopping $10 million on ads so far.
Many of Cassidy’s ads depict him as close to Trump, a clear attempt to obscure the reality that he voted to convict the president.
Letlow has spent $2.5 million on ads and has her super PAC, The Accountability Project. Letlow and her allies have been touting the Trump endorsements. Her team believes once they educate more voters that she is Trump’s pick, Letlow will surge.
quote:
For years, the state had a jungle primary that pooled candidates from all parties into one race. That benefited Cassidy because liberal and moderate voters could join Republicans in supporting him, making the politics of his impeachment vote easier. Now, each party holds its own primary.
Plenty of GOP voters are ready to ditch Cassidy. Letlow’s problem is that despite having Trump’s backing, she’s sharing the anti-incumbent voting bloc with Fleming. Case in point: her super PAC is airing an ad hitting Fleming on immigration in order to bring down his vote share.
Letlow also waited months to launch her Senate run, doing so only in January. Fleming entered the race in December 2024. Fleming is currently Louisiana’s state treasurer.
Fleming, 74, said he was repeatedly contacted in late January and mid-Febuary by figures “in Trump’s orbit” to see what it would take to get him out of the race.
“I was contacted twice by a high-level person at the White House, again, asking if there’s anything they could do, anything they could offer that would get me to drop out. And I said no, of course, diplomatically said no,” Fleming told us.
Fleming said Louisiana GOP voters see Cassidy and Letlow as “too Washington” when compared to him. Fleming served in the House from 2009 to 2017. He ran for Senate in 2016 but finished well back in the Republican primary.
The White House denies that they made any offer to Fleming. Fleming was asked if he was prepared to stay in the race after Letlow got in and had the president’s endorsement. Fleming said yes, according to a Trump source familiar with the conversation.
The White House’s view, at least now, is that they simply want Cassidy out of the Senate. They don’t care if it’s Letlow or Fleming who does that.
LINK
Louisiana may have the most interesting Congressional race of the midterms, at least for inside baseball politico types.
13
Posted on 4/20/26 at 10:13 am to ragincajun03
I'd be happy with Fleming or Letlow.
frick Cassidy.
frick Cassidy.
This post was edited on 4/20/26 at 10:14 am
Posted on 4/20/26 at 10:14 am to ragincajun03
quote:
The two-term incumbent senator is at risk of not even making the primary runoff,
Your move, Kentucky.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 10:14 am to ragincajun03
I called it as soon as POTUS Trump endorsed Letlow. POTUS Trump was playing 5D chess by pitting Letlow against Cassidy which would allow Fleming to walk right in.
POTUS Trump has a lot of respect for John Fleming!!
POTUS Trump has a lot of respect for John Fleming!!
Posted on 4/20/26 at 10:15 am to ragincajun03
quote:
he’s fuming at the Senate Republican establishment for not helping him enough
Cassidy made his bed in 2021. The GOP establishment is more interested in propping up someone like Cornyn, who may actually win in a runoff, than a guy who is completely fricked like Bill.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 10:19 am to ragincajun03
"Say no to the RINO"...
Posted on 4/20/26 at 11:16 am to ragincajun03
FLEMING. For the love of God, if Republican voters don't do it now the establishment will just keep on imposing their candidates on us. Cassidy is crap and Letlow is crap. Do you really want Letlow to be the Senator for the next 20 years? Letlow is who you elect when you are desperate for whatever R you can get elected. LA should be doing better with the type of Republicans we are putting in Congress. Fleming is up in age so he won't be holding down the seat for decades on end. We can have a good conservative placeholder for the next 6 years while fleshing out future candidates.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 11:21 am to ragincajun03
Fleming, a family friend, is the real deal. He's not a yes man.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 11:34 am to ragincajun03
This article pleases me.
Fleming all the way.
Imagine if Trump would have endorsed Fleming instead of having that little ankle biter Landry beg him to endorse Letlow.
Fleming all the way.
Imagine if Trump would have endorsed Fleming instead of having that little ankle biter Landry beg him to endorse Letlow.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 11:39 am to ragincajun03
#TeamFleming
Posted on 4/20/26 at 12:19 pm to Timeoday
quote:
John Fleming!!
Is a one-termer, at best. Can we just freakin' move on from him. He will be 75 years old. There are only 4 Senators that are currently older than he will be when he runs for a 2nd term
Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), 91
Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), 83
Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), 82
And we know what condition Grassley and McConnell are in
Let it go. Let the man live his last few years without being propped up by staff
Posted on 4/20/26 at 12:37 pm to RobbBobb
as person who is completely in favor of term limits......
he sounds perfect
he sounds perfect
Posted on 4/20/26 at 12:39 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
Let it go. Let the man live his last few years without being propped up by staff
No way will I vote for a RINO! Fleming is the man to get us out of the mud left by Cassidy.
This post was edited on 4/20/26 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 4/20/26 at 12:44 pm to udtiger
quote:
I'd be happy with Fleming or Letlow.
Louisiana cheering about getting its own Murkowski is hilarious. Fleming is the only acceptable candidate of the three
Posted on 4/20/26 at 1:17 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
There are only 4 Senators that are currently older than he will be when he runs for a 2nd term
We’ll deal with that when he runs for a second term
Posted on 4/20/26 at 1:19 pm to Mr.Perfect
quote:
Louisiana cheering about getting its own Murkowski is hilarious. Fleming is the only acceptable candidate of the three
You omitted the "frick Cassidy" part of my post.
I am ABC
Posted on 4/20/26 at 1:21 pm to ragincajun03
Saw a Cassidy commercial where he said he beat BIDEN.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 2:26 pm to ChewyDante
I've been torn over this. I don't like any of these people, but you have convinced me. I'm voting Fleming. Not going to like it, but I've done it before.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 5:59 pm to ragincajun03
Punch bowl is 100% paid for news stories. Datarepublican did a long write up on it
Posted on 4/20/26 at 6:16 pm to idlewatcher
quote:
#TeamFleming
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