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Started By
Message
Stanford University anti-body study finds COVID-19 more widespread than thought
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:23 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:23 am
quote:
The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. Conclusions The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Translation = it's likely just flu.
END. THE. CHARADE.
LINK
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 11:26 am
35
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:24 am to RollTide1987
Can't wait to see how the Karen's respond.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:25 am to RollTide1987
Nowhere near enough for herd immunity
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:25 am to RollTide1987
No shite.
Math.
Math.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:25 am to RollTide1987
I think you'd be a fool to assume it's not more widespread than the numbers indicate. We're only testing a tiny fraction of people.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:26 am to RollTide1987
(1) Highly contagious; (2) Low mortality
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:27 am to RollTide1987
quote:
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
In other words, the VAST majority of people infected with it will never show any symptoms and we should open the economy and be focused on protecting those who are most at risk: obese, elderly, those with pre-existing respiratory conditions, lawyers for preachers in Central, etc...
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:27 am to RollTide1987
I thought this had been assumed for some time now.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:28 am to RollTide1987
Iceland concluded early on that at least 1% of its population was infected. The true CFR is less than .5%. Maybe way less.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:29 am to RollTide1987
RUH ROH
The “men” of the OT won’t like this.
The “men” of the OT won’t like this.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:30 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Translation = it's likely just flu.
The flu doesn’t overwhelm ICUs and ERs in hard hit areas
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:32 am to Ash Williams
quote:
In other words, the VAST majority of people infected with it will never show any symptoms and we should open the economy and be focused on protecting those who are most at risk: obese, elderly, those with pre-existing respiratory conditions, lawyers for preachers in Central, etc...
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:32 am to cwil177
quote:
The flu doesn’t overwhelm ICUs and ERs in hard hit areas
A bad flu season can and does do that. There were well over a million hospitalizations during the 2017-18 flu season.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:33 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Tigerdroppings logic and reasoning study finds COVID-19 more widespread than thought
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:34 am to cwil177
quote:
The flu doesn’t overwhelm ICUs and ERs in hard hit areas
Neither does Covid-19
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:34 am to RollTide1987
well...no shite
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:39 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Translation = it's likely just flu.
There’s been over 14,600 deaths in New York City. If every single one of the 8.7 million people in NYC have had the virus (unlikely), the death rate is about 0.17%.
Based on the median estimates from the CDC, the seasonal flu death rate is about 0.09%.
Translation = not the fricking flu
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:39 am to RollTide1987
I got downvoted into Oblivion when I said this a month ago.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:39 am to cwil177
quote:
The flu doesn’t overwhelm ICUs and ERs in hard hit areas
It most certainly can and does only you don't know it because no one is ramming it down your throat 24/7.
There are also isolated school closures when one is hit hard.
Again, no one covers it 24/7.
You see a local news story one night at 10pm.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 11:41 am
Posted on 4/17/20 at 11:40 am to cwil177
Unless you're in Nola or NYC metro neither does this.
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