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re: LSU Men's hoops
Posted on 12/30/25 at 10:47 am to northernvatiger
Posted on 12/30/25 at 10:47 am to northernvatiger
Newest Bracketology has LSU as one of the last 4 byes. Going to be very interesting how the season shakes out.
1-1 vs Q1 / tournament caliber teams
11-0 vs Q3/Q4.
LSU's best win: SMU
2nd best: Tarleton State
Current SOS: 274th
Remaining SOS: 13th
1-1 vs Q1 / tournament caliber teams
11-0 vs Q3/Q4.
LSU's best win: SMU
2nd best: Tarleton State
Current SOS: 274th
Remaining SOS: 13th
0
Posted on 12/30/25 at 10:51 am to northernvatiger
The team that played past night could be a bubble team. I'm guessing 5 SEC wins. McMann needs to be canned if they fail to make the tourney though. "Better than last season" just isn't going to cut it anymore.
This post was edited on 12/30/25 at 10:54 am
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:01 am to Manswers
This team really needs Miller to grow and develop, and he could still come on, but I’m growing less optimistic with every game.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:02 am to The Pirate King
8-10 in the SEC with LSU's non conference schedule is likely not going to get it done.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:21 am to covtgr
quote:
8-10 in the SEC with LSU's non conference schedule is likely not going to get it done.
LSU plays 7 currently ranked teams with some more likely to jump in during the season. If we beat a couple ranked teams I think we'll be good.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:22 am to ellessuuuu
ESPN’s basketball index has us going 8-10 in the SEC and finishing with 20 wins.
We have 9 games in January and that will set the stage. 2 of those games are against SC who is projected to be last. We need to win those two as a must. From there if we can get to 5 wins we would be in good shape. We have some tough games with Florida and Vandy so I have those as L’s. Means you need to win 3 more (assuming you beat SC twice) out of TAMU, Mizzou, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Miss State. 4 wins is probably acceptable and 5 would be great.
We have 9 games in January and that will set the stage. 2 of those games are against SC who is projected to be last. We need to win those two as a must. From there if we can get to 5 wins we would be in good shape. We have some tough games with Florida and Vandy so I have those as L’s. Means you need to win 3 more (assuming you beat SC twice) out of TAMU, Mizzou, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Miss State. 4 wins is probably acceptable and 5 would be great.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:24 am to northernvatiger
I think the SEC is down a bit this year from the last couple of years. That's encouraging. If LSU can win the games it should win and maybe an upset or two I think 8-9 wins is realistic. Right now, I just want to be at least 3-1 heading into Gainesville.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:26 am to northernvatiger
20 Year Anniversary.....we're going back to Indianapolis
Come February nobody will want to frivk with this shite
Come February nobody will want to frivk with this shite
This post was edited on 12/30/25 at 11:33 am
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:42 am to The Pirate King
quote:
It's McMahon's best team, in large part because DJ Thomas is the best player he's had. Thomas may be the best PG in the SEC.
Outside of Thomas, there's nothing special about the group but Sutton is a good player that will probably get you 15/8 in conference games. Nwoko plays well with Thomas and needs to stay out of foul trouble because it's not good behind him.
We'll win games when Mackinnon is knocking down 3s. I'm concerned about what happens when more athletic teams that play defense don't give him the kind of open looks he's been getting against the non con schedule.
They have a shot to make the tournament. SEC is down this year, so I think they need to go 9-9 to make it. I'd say it's 50-50 or slightly below.
Good analysis.
From an efficiency standpoint it's McMahon's best team. And as you say, that's in large part because of DJ Thomas. His asst:TO ratio the best in the SEC and one of the best in the nation. That's resulted in a dramatic drop in turnovers at which McMahon's previous teams were AWFUL. LSU is also doing a good job at getting to the FT. That's mitigating the, at very best, inconsistent 3 point shooting. Unfortunately, LSU's 3 point shooting right now is limited to one player...McKinnon. And he's been either red hot or ice cold with little in between.
Defense is still a big concern. LSU doesn't force many TOs nor do they have great rim protection. That means they will have to work hard to force tough shots AND rebound misses. The good news is that Tamba, Sutton and, to a lesser extent, Nwoko have been decent there.
You would have like to see a better performance vs. Texas Tech, but otherwise LSU did about as well in the non-conf. portion against a weak schedule as anyone could have reasonably hoped. I think 9-9 in SEC play punches their ticket to the tournament. 8-10 puts them in the discussion. Anything less and the likelihood of making the tournament becomes very remote. They MUST come out of the gates fast as the first half of the SEC schedule looks more manageable than the second half. IMO, if LSU enters February with only 3 SEC wins I just don't think they will be good enough to get 5 wins on the back half.
quote:
The interesting question is what record gets McMahon fired. I think if we're not at least on the NCAA bubble, he gets let go.
The people who saved McMahon after last season (Tate/Woodward) are gone. That's in large part BECAUSE they saved McMahon against the wishes of some influential people who wanted him gone. Those same influential people forced Tate/Woodward out. That means the default BEFORE the season even started was LSU planned to make a coaching change at the end unless McMahon did something remarkable. Being "on the bubble" isn't remarkable. Even sneaking into the tournament and leaving after one game likely won't be considered remarkable enough to get him another year. It may take a run to the Sweet 16 to generate enough fans support to appease those who wanted to make a change.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:43 am to northernvatiger
It's about to get real Saturday. I remember three years ago LSU started out 12-1, even with an upset of Arkansas, then proceeded to lose a record-tying 14 straight games. They were an embarrassment of epic proportions, inviting comparisons with Johnny Jones' last season and Press Maravich's first
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:47 am to Alt26
quote:
It may take a run to the Sweet 16 to generate enough fans support to appease those who wanted to make a change.
then those people are idiots. LSU men's basketball history is what it is and it's not a consistent sweet 16 team, and that was before the NIL era.Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:53 am to The Pirate King
The bar should at least be make the tourney most seasons. If we aren't meeting that, then the coach is not succeeding.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:55 am to northernvatiger
If nwoko gets in foul trouble early, expect us to lose the game by a lot. Otherwise we have a chance in most games.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 11:58 am to northernvatiger
They have played 3 maybe four relavent games. Only lost one. The computers have them 9th in conference.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:04 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
then those people are idiots. LSU men's basketball history is what it is and it's not a consistent sweet 16 team, and that was before the NIL era.
Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida didn't have much "basketball history" until they landed the right HC. Saying LSU should be content with an occasional great basketball season simply because of "history" is a loser's mentality. Particularly in an era where total rebuilds can literally happen over the course of one offseason. If you, as program, aren't always striving to be a championship program then why even have a program? If we get to the end of the season and the VERY BEST McMahon can muster over the course of 4 seasons is a middle of the road SEC record and quick tournament exit as an 8, 9, 10 seed then what would be the point of continuing on with a guy that will have shown his very best is average to (maybe) slightly above average? To do so would be just a waste of time. In fact, LSU moved on pretty quickly from Johnny Jones after just ONE really bad season because it was clear he was never going to be the guy to lead the program to big things. In this instance it would be 4 YEARS of a bad to average program under McMahon.
There is ZERO reason LSU couldn't have a great basketball program like Alabama or Florida or Tennessee, or even schools like Texas Tech, Iowa St. It just takes finding the right HC. Now, that's much easier said than done. But continuing on with a guy who will have not shown any signs whatsoever of even the potential to lead the program to a consistently good level is totally illogical.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:11 pm to Alt26
quote:
It just takes finding the right HC.
and perhaps more importantly, big time money for players
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:13 pm to Alt26
All of those teams you mentioned have outspent LSU the last 3 years. I don't mind judging a coach by wins and losses but it also needs to be apples to oranges. I do believe he has to make the tournament this year or he's gone subject to losing a player like thomas, nwoko or Sutton to injury as you've already lost Reed. People don't understand or refuse to understand how big a bench role Reed would have played and he also creates more room for someone like Miller to maneuver as he is able to pull bigs out of the lane with his 3 point shooting. We will see what his team does but it does prove that more money equals better players.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:16 pm to ellessuuuu
quote:
The Warren Nolan RPI predictor has us going 6-12 in conference.
I prefer the torvik rankings which have em at 9-9. my own personal supercomputer has been working overtime and has them at 10-8 and the sweet 16. my data and parameters are impeccable, My calibrations are flippin' pinpoint.
LINK
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:24 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:
The bar should at least be make the tourney most seasons. If we aren't meeting that, then the coach is not succeeding.
I agree with that, in theory, but how are you going to hold the previous seasons against the coach if you don't invest the money in the roster to give him a fighting chance? This is the first season they at least tried to fund the roster better and shocker, it's been a better output (so far).
We'll see what happens in the SEC this season, but McMahon has been fighting with one arm behind his back since he was hired between the sanctions, lack of funding, and ridiculously fickle fans/boosters who still pine after the former coach and refuse to support the program with McMahon as coach.
I don't think he's a great coach by any means, but it's been hard to judge him against his peers since they're on different playing fields.
Posted on 12/30/25 at 12:38 pm to ellessuuuu
Last week, I said 5-8 conference wins. I’m sticking with that range. SEC doesn’t seem to be as strong as last year.
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