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Started By
Message
re: Will 30 year mortgage rates ever see 4.5% again?
Posted on 7/18/24 at 9:33 am to shoelessjoe
Posted on 7/18/24 at 9:33 am to shoelessjoe
Ever is such a long time frame.
I guess they could.
In the late 1970s, that was crazy low
I guess they could.
In the late 1970s, that was crazy low
0
Posted on 7/18/24 at 9:49 am to shoelessjoe
Find a family member who wants 5% in their money for 20 years. You can still take the mortgage interest deduction through a CPA. I did this with my dad to give him 4.5% on money he wanted to invest.
Posted on 7/18/24 at 10:10 am to BabyTac
I wish you would stop posting. Nothing but lies. You really, really, really want to be "cool" on this board. Power to you for your long term shitty post thread history.
Posted on 7/18/24 at 10:19 am to Drizzt
Yeah, but what happens when the friendly stripper steals all your money? Does the family member just forgive the loan?
Posted on 7/18/24 at 10:35 am to TheOcean
quote:
the friendly stripper
The Friendly Strippers would be a great band name.
Posted on 7/18/24 at 11:22 am to shoelessjoe
Ever? Probably. Soon? Doubtful
Posted on 7/18/24 at 11:36 am to Drizzt
quote:
Find a family member who wants 5% in their money for 20 years. You can still take the mortgage interest deduction through a CPA. I did this with my dad to give him 4.5% on money he wanted to invest.
I maybe wrong, but I believe this is not quite correct. From my understanding you can only loan in relation to the AFR (Applicable Federal Rates) which is currently right around 5.06%.
ETA: This post was most likely discussing past rates which would have been correct. I just was pointing out that someone may not be able to make a loan NOW with a family member or other entity for whatever they wanted.
This post was edited on 7/18/24 at 11:38 am
Posted on 7/18/24 at 3:33 pm to Enadious
quote:
Hell, my first house loan in '79 was at 10.95--a special rate at the time. Rates were as high as 18% before they started heading down
this explanation always annoys me. the cost of houses in the 70s and 80s were a tenth what they are now.
Posted on 7/18/24 at 5:10 pm to donRANDOMnumbers
quote:
this explanation always annoys me. the cost of houses in the 70s and 80s were a tenth what they are now.
And min wage was $2.
You can still buy cheap houses with 1970s quality amenities, the problem is no one wants them. 1970s homes were 1200-1400 sq ft, homes now are 2400 sq ft to start and most new builds have tons of mid tier fixtures and fittings that increase the cost from builder grade quite substantially.
Posted on 7/18/24 at 5:21 pm to donRANDOMnumbers
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/8/24 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 7/18/24 at 6:36 pm to shoelessjoe
A small part of me wonders if we will even see them at 4.5% again in the next decade
Posted on 7/18/24 at 10:16 pm to baldona
quote:
You can still buy cheap houses with 1970s quality amenities, the problem is no one wants them. 1970s homes were 1200-1400 sq ft, homes now are 2400 sq ft to start and most new builds have tons of mid tier fixtures and fittings that increase the cost from builder grade quite substantially.
How many 1400sq/ft houses with basic amenities are being built in anything resembling decent areas of cities?
The answer is “basically zero” because the land is too expensive. That’s what seems to get lost in this discussion. People have been saying the three rules of real estate are “location, location, location” for the the last century or so. Now all of a sudden, people are scoffing at first time home buyers who are concerned about location and don’t want to buy something out in the sticks.
Posted on 7/19/24 at 7:09 am to donRANDOMnumbers
quote:
this explanation always annoys me. the cost of houses in the 70s and 80s were a tenth what they are now.
And wages were a tenth of what they are today. So we're vehicles. A new Corvette was 10k
Posted on 7/19/24 at 7:34 am to baldona
quote:
You can still buy cheap houses with 1970s quality amenities, the problem is no one wants them. 1970s homes were 1200-1400 sq ft, homes
All the houses in my neighborhood fit this description. Minimum price is $500k, with most going for closer to $600k. My 1,300 sq ft house built in 1957 is worth $575k. I bought it for $260k nine years ago. If you only adjust for average inflation, it should be $344k. 
This post was edited on 7/19/24 at 7:40 am
Posted on 7/19/24 at 8:47 am to Ace Midnight
Maybe. Frankly, 4.5 to 5.5 would be a good range for mortgage rates to sit for the long term. While not that bad, 7 (I once held a mortgage at 7%) starts to hurt. On the other hand, folks were spoiled to ~3 for so long, money was practically free.
Nothing's free - at least not forever.
__________
Agree with this.
Nothing's free - at least not forever.
__________
Agree with this.
Posted on 7/21/24 at 12:19 pm to shoelessjoe
Nobody has a crystal ball unfortunately; but, we do have some indicators to work with.
As several have pointed out; from a historical standpoint, 6-7% home loan interest rates are normal. That era of 2.25-3.5% was an anomaly and probably is causing some of the pain we’re experiencing now.
You also have US Treasury Bonds which can be viewed as a somewhat forward looking indicator of how much the Fed thinks it will cost to borrow money in the future.
Right now the interest rate paid on a 20 year Treasury is 4.58%.
I’m by no means an expert; but, with the data we have I don’t see us getting back to super low interest rates in the next decade or more.
As several have pointed out; from a historical standpoint, 6-7% home loan interest rates are normal. That era of 2.25-3.5% was an anomaly and probably is causing some of the pain we’re experiencing now.
You also have US Treasury Bonds which can be viewed as a somewhat forward looking indicator of how much the Fed thinks it will cost to borrow money in the future.
Right now the interest rate paid on a 20 year Treasury is 4.58%.
I’m by no means an expert; but, with the data we have I don’t see us getting back to super low interest rates in the next decade or more.
Posted on 7/22/24 at 6:51 am to Joshjrn
quote:
How many 1400sq/ft houses with basic amenities are being built in anything resembling decent areas of cities?
Give me a break. I never said new builds, why do you need new? I’ve never built a new house, my parents never built a new house, my grandparents never built a new house.
I never said buy a trailer. Are you disagreeing with my principle? A major reason things are more expensive right now related to homes is due to the size and what is put in the homes.
Cars are no different, a low end vehicle is better than any car from the 1980s but people love to bitch about the price of the high end models. You don’t have to buy those…
My town the new nice neighborhoods are going for $700-1 mil that are high end 2600-3500 sq ft. I have a couple rental homes in the $225-250k range but they are older neighborhoods and 1000-1200 sq ft 3/2s.
No one is making you pay the extra.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 12:33 pm to baldona
1982 laughs at today’s rates. 5% is historically very good if we inch back closer to that.
Prices don’t appear to be going anywhere but up though. Kudos to all who bought at 2.5% for half the price of the market now.
Prices don’t appear to be going anywhere but up though. Kudos to all who bought at 2.5% for half the price of the market now.
Posted on 7/23/24 at 1:11 pm to TejasHorn
quote:
1982 laughs at today’s rates. 5% is historically very good if we inch back closer to that. Prices don’t appear to be going anywhere but up though. Kudos to all who bought at 2.5% for half the price of the market now.
Doesn’t matter if they have to move like I did
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