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re: 2023 Pels NBA Draft Discussion
Posted on 5/2/23 at 3:46 pm to Balsamic_duck
Posted on 5/2/23 at 3:46 pm to Balsamic_duck
quote:
Most of these prospects i think "When would he play for us?" Like someone said, theres minutes to be had at the 5 or a pure shooter. Any other type of player would barely touch the court for us.
when you're good enough, you will play. We aren't going to play Naji Marshall over someone who's better.
Hell we aren't going to play Herb over someone's who's better. Larry Nance could easily lose his job, as could JV.
Boston found a way to play rookie Payton Pritchard, but not Romeo Langford. It's b/c one of them was good enough, and the other one sucks.
0
Posted on 5/2/23 at 3:46 pm to Balsamic_duck
quote:
Any other type of player would barely touch the court for us
Exactly, any player out of the top 5, as the roster is currently constructed, would barely play. Similar to what the Pels have done with Dyson, Hayes, and Kira. As it stands right now, CJ, BI, Zion, TM3, and Herb would take up 170 minutes leaving 70 minutes of rotation to be distributed between Jose/Dyson/Kira, Val/Nance, Liddell/Hayes, and Naji/Rookie. If they are committed to their core, the Pels really need to upgrade the 8 rotational players into two difference-makers and 2 solid rotational pieces, with the rest dropping to reserve roles.
Pels don't have a ton of data on their core grouping but has plenty of data on rotational/reserve players that had to play larger roles due to injuries. Although playing hard and admirably I didn't see anyone in the rotational grouping make the case to jump to substantially higher minutes ~ 20-24 that a difference maker would warrant, although I'd give a mulligan to Dyson.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 4:07 pm to Pistol44
quote:
Exactly, any player out of the top 5, as the roster is currently constructed, would barely play. Similar to what the Pels have done with Dyson, Hayes, and Kira.
You think if we drafted Maxey instead of Kira he would have been riding the bench more?
Trey got minutes, and has earned more. Every rookie worth a shite is given minutes to prove himself, and if he does, he'll see more and more playing time.
There is zero reason to think the 14th pick in the draft won't have room to play on our current team if he's good, regardless of his position.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 4:56 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
There is zero reason to think the 14th pick in the draft won't have room to play on our current team if he's good
I'd like to believe that, but big minutes given to JJ Redick, Derrick Favors, Steven Adams, Larry Nance (*injured),Eric Bledsoe and Devonte Graham leads me to believe that it won't. Pels have been in this gray area where they want to win (due to having two young all-star talents) at the expense of young player development (read court time). Recall that Pels benched TM3 in favor of JRich for a stretch, and only for Herb being a demon on defense, was he allowed to see the court.
My overall point is that some fan-favorites might have to be replaced in order for a non-top5 rookie, who has a high upside but likely needs development, to crack the rotation. My bet is Griff doesn't take that risk and packages up a combo of picks, key rotation players (maybe even a starter) for an established difference-maker (s) coming off the bench .... Not a rookie outside a top 5 pick.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 5:11 pm to Pistol44
We've watched dd, tm3, herb, Jax, Kira, and even Jose get put in timeouts by Willie because of a bad stretch of play - in favor of vets who did equally as bad if not worse.
I'm not confident in this coaching staff and Griff to allow his young guys to grow. Even when they show promise over a vet.
I'm not confident in this coaching staff and Griff to allow his young guys to grow. Even when they show promise over a vet.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 9:26 pm to htran90
quote:
We've watched dd, tm3, herb, Jax, Kira, and even Jose get put in timeouts by Willie because of a bad stretch of play - in favor of vets who did equally as bad if not worse.
Every rookie goes through a rough stretch, and sits a bit, or gets less minutes. Even Maxey did.
Kira has sat b/c he’s not good, and Jax is a dumbass. Dyson will get his run next year, and if he isn’t improving, then he’ll be on the bench. Guys that can play, will play. It’s as simple as that. Willie isn’t punishing anyone by sitting them and playing shitty vets instead.
Posted on 5/2/23 at 10:04 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Dyson will get his run next year, and if he isn’t improving, then he’ll be on the bench
Dyson is probably the biggest disappointment of the past season for me. Showed VERY little improvement over the entire year. Kept thinking he would at least show some kinda spark at some point. Never happened. Another year with little to no progress and I will start to be concerned. He could be an important cog in the Pels' future.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 12:56 am to Dinky Mulberry
Him at the 8th pick was really a reach anyway and I never liked that pick. Hopefully he develops into at least a decent role player. Two picks away from Mathurin. One pick away from Sharpe. Even Johnny Davis has shown signs of life towards the end of the season.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 1:16 am to brmark70816
What is the fascination with low efficiency, undersized combo guards?? We just drafted a guard last year at age 19 to develop. This one doesn't even give you passable defense. Along with the fact he shot terribly, he wouldn't even beable to get minutes for us if we drafted him. Yall would be ready to light the torches like yall were for CJ and Nickeil.
Would rather Hawkins cause at least he gives you one elite skill and he'll always generate defensive gravity off ball. Keyonte looks like he'll be one of those players that don't contribute to winning and be a black hole if his shot is not falling.
Would rather Hawkins cause at least he gives you one elite skill and he'll always generate defensive gravity off ball. Keyonte looks like he'll be one of those players that don't contribute to winning and be a black hole if his shot is not falling.
This post was edited on 5/3/23 at 1:24 am
Posted on 5/3/23 at 7:40 am to PelsRoe318
quote:
Him at the 8th pick was really a reach anyway and I never liked that pick. Hopefully he develops into at least a decent role player. Two picks away from Mathurin. One pick away from Sharpe. Even Johnny Davis has shown signs of life towards the end of the season.
Dyson at 8 was not a reach, he was consistently mocked in that range, it wasn't even a sure thing he would make it to 8
Posted on 5/3/23 at 8:26 am to PelsRoe318
quote:
Him at the 8th pick was really a reach anyway and I never liked that pick
Dyson has an elite NBA ready skill that doesn't need honing in, and that's his defense.
His offensive issues seem to be more with confidence than anything. I don't think anyone thinks he can't shoot.
Nothing about selecting a 6'8" elite perimeter defender that has shown promise as a 3 point shooter is a reach.
Now, drafting a 6'1" 160lb PG who doesn't play PG and can only score in transition was a bit of a reach, especially considering the higher upside PG Cole Anthony was still available as was a bigger and better scorer who was a "PG" in Maxey.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 8:36 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Now, drafting a 6'1" 160lb PG who doesn't play PG and can only score in transition was a bit of a reach, especially considering the higher upside PG Cole Anthony was still available as was a bigger and better scorer who was a "PG" in Maxey.
100%. I also give them a little bit of a pass there since that was a covid draft and there was very limited scouting and workouts that were allowed to happen. There were a ton of misses in that draft even from historically good drafting teams. Haliburton fell to 12. The warriors drafted wiseman 2, bane and maxey were late 1st round picks. That draft was all over the place and we were actively trying to trade out of 13, didn't find a good trade and took kira as a backup plan
Posted on 5/3/23 at 8:50 am to Pistol44
quote:
I'd like to believe that, but big minutes given to JJ Redick, Derrick Favors, Steven Adams, Larry Nance (*injured),Eric Bledsoe and Devonte Graham leads me to believe that it won't. Pels have been in this gray area where they want to win (due to having two young all-star talents) at the expense of young player development (read court time). Recall that Pels benched TM3 in favor of JRich for a stretch, and only for Herb being a demon on defense, was he allowed to see the court.
My overall point is that some fan-favorites might have to be replaced in order for a non-top5 rookie, who has a high upside but likely needs development, to crack the rotation. My bet is Griff doesn't take that risk and packages up a combo of picks, key rotation players (maybe even a starter) for an established difference-maker (s) coming off the bench .... Not a rookie outside a top 5 pick.
Trey played the 2nd most minutes on the entire team this past season. Herb was 4th, Naji 5th, Jose 8th, Dyson 9th.
In 21-22, Herb played the most minutes on the team. Jax was 5th, NAW was 7th, Trey 10th, Jose 12th, Naji 13th.
You shouldn't expect most rookies to come in and play top 5-6 total minutes in his first year, but by the end of their rookie season, you hope they are getting decent playing time. Our guys did exactly that.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 9:29 am to Balsamic_duck
doesn't change the fact that Cole Anthony had much more potential than Kira, and that most people Kira's size generally aren't very successful in the NBA.
Kira 6'1" with 6'5" wingspan, 180lbs when drafted (gained 15lbs before rookie year). Listed at 170lbs now.
Maxey 6'3" with 6'8" wingspan, 200lbs.
Anthony 6'3" with 6'5" wingspan, 190lbs.
here's a list of guys on NBA rosters smaller than Kira, by weight:
Bones Hyland at 169lbs 6'2" with massive 6'9" wingspan, 26th pick, known scorer
Isiah Joe at 165lbs 6'4" with 6'8" wingspan, known shooter, 49th pick
and that's it. Just two nba players smaller than Kira, and to call them smaller is rather subjective considering their wingspans.
and here's guys slightly bigger:
Dennis Schroeder 172lbs 6'2" with 6'7" wingspan, 17th pick
Ish Smith 175lbs 6'0" undrafted
Jose 179lbs 6'0" undrafted
You know what those 5 guys do that Kira has yet to ever do? be a spark off the bench. For being so fast, we actually get to see that speed a handful of times in a game. More often than not you don't even notice Kira is even on the floor when he's out there. No one has ever said that about those other 5 guys, b/c when they are in the game, they make an impact more often than not.
Schroder has been a known defensive menace picking up full court his whole career. You ever seen Kira do that? We sure have seen Jose do it.
Just another frame of reference, "small" Darius Garland is 6'1", 192lbs
I've played a lot of basketball in my life, against a lot of elite college athletes. There was a huge difference when i gained some muscle and strength and was playing at 195, from when i was playing at 170. You are so massively undersized at 170 when everyone else around you that's small is 190-200, and then you've got 220-240lb guys under the goal. It's really difficult to finish at the rim when you can't use your body, and at 170lb you aren't using much of your body against guys in the 220lb range. You have to rely on your speed, quickness and athletic ability at that point. Kira's finishes at the rim are rarely every contested, and when they are, he usually doesn't make it. There's a reason for that, b/c he's too damn small.
Kira's ceiling is and always has been Darren Collison. If he could become Ish Smith, that would be an accomplishment, but he's barely trending in that direction. Ish has been in the league for 10+ years now.
Both the Kira and Jax picks were absolutely stupid. PG's that small are rarely successful, and raw bigs with no offense with low bball iq getting picked in the lottery almost always bust.
I like Kira, and i don't mean to bash him so much, but he's just not good. He needs to be traded and i wish him the best of luck. I think the infatuation with him was always that he was really young and had 2 years of college experience. and it did help a lot that he gained those 15lbs before the draft, even though it was fools gold. I think had he not done that, you probably see him drafted in the 20's.
Kira 6'1" with 6'5" wingspan, 180lbs when drafted (gained 15lbs before rookie year). Listed at 170lbs now.
Maxey 6'3" with 6'8" wingspan, 200lbs.
Anthony 6'3" with 6'5" wingspan, 190lbs.
here's a list of guys on NBA rosters smaller than Kira, by weight:
Bones Hyland at 169lbs 6'2" with massive 6'9" wingspan, 26th pick, known scorer
Isiah Joe at 165lbs 6'4" with 6'8" wingspan, known shooter, 49th pick
and that's it. Just two nba players smaller than Kira, and to call them smaller is rather subjective considering their wingspans.
and here's guys slightly bigger:
Dennis Schroeder 172lbs 6'2" with 6'7" wingspan, 17th pick
Ish Smith 175lbs 6'0" undrafted
Jose 179lbs 6'0" undrafted
You know what those 5 guys do that Kira has yet to ever do? be a spark off the bench. For being so fast, we actually get to see that speed a handful of times in a game. More often than not you don't even notice Kira is even on the floor when he's out there. No one has ever said that about those other 5 guys, b/c when they are in the game, they make an impact more often than not.
Schroder has been a known defensive menace picking up full court his whole career. You ever seen Kira do that? We sure have seen Jose do it.
Just another frame of reference, "small" Darius Garland is 6'1", 192lbs
I've played a lot of basketball in my life, against a lot of elite college athletes. There was a huge difference when i gained some muscle and strength and was playing at 195, from when i was playing at 170. You are so massively undersized at 170 when everyone else around you that's small is 190-200, and then you've got 220-240lb guys under the goal. It's really difficult to finish at the rim when you can't use your body, and at 170lb you aren't using much of your body against guys in the 220lb range. You have to rely on your speed, quickness and athletic ability at that point. Kira's finishes at the rim are rarely every contested, and when they are, he usually doesn't make it. There's a reason for that, b/c he's too damn small.
Kira's ceiling is and always has been Darren Collison. If he could become Ish Smith, that would be an accomplishment, but he's barely trending in that direction. Ish has been in the league for 10+ years now.
Both the Kira and Jax picks were absolutely stupid. PG's that small are rarely successful, and raw bigs with no offense with low bball iq getting picked in the lottery almost always bust.
I like Kira, and i don't mean to bash him so much, but he's just not good. He needs to be traded and i wish him the best of luck. I think the infatuation with him was always that he was really young and had 2 years of college experience. and it did help a lot that he gained those 15lbs before the draft, even though it was fools gold. I think had he not done that, you probably see him drafted in the 20's.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 9:54 am to TeddyPadillac
Teddy, I agree with everything you said on Kira. He has one elite skill, speed. Kid is a blur... but his lack of processing , passing, and finishing really limits that skill.... maybe this off-season he will be healthy and work on leveraging his speed. Making better reads once he blows past his guy.
Jax... hasn't figured out how to play tall. I know he had a late growth spurt but its on him to embrace being a big... Jax can switch on the perimeter better than most bigs....
I do think he would be more effective on offense paired with a pick and roll guard like Trae Young or Luka. Feeding him lobs...
I know that I am the last Pels fan on the Jax train but I would resign him or match if it was a super cheap deal.
Jax... hasn't figured out how to play tall. I know he had a late growth spurt but its on him to embrace being a big... Jax can switch on the perimeter better than most bigs....
I do think he would be more effective on offense paired with a pick and roll guard like Trae Young or Luka. Feeding him lobs...
I know that I am the last Pels fan on the Jax train but I would resign him or match if it was a super cheap deal.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 9:54 am to htran90
quote:
in favor of vets who did equally as bad if not worse
And this is the rub. One thing to bench a young player for a vet who may give you a better chance to win but obviously JJ, Favors, Bledsoe, Adams, *Injured Nance, Sato and Temple didn’t move the needle much, if at all. Those minutes arguably should have gone to a younger player and the Pels wouldn’t have been marginally worse.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 10:01 am to six4lsu
quote:
I know that I am the last Pels fan on the Jax train
You are not alone ….
Posted on 5/3/23 at 10:54 am to Pistol44
quote:
And this is the rub. One thing to bench a young player for a vet who may give you a better chance to win but obviously JJ, Favors, Bledsoe, Adams, *Injured Nance, Sato and Temple didn’t move the needle much, if at all. Those minutes arguably should have gone to a younger player and the Pels wouldn’t have been marginally worse.
who are you talking about?
What young player wasn't getting minutes b/c of those guys? be specific.
Kira isn't good, and has been given minutes.
Jax has been given many minutes to earn more, and he hasn't. Although i do think he should have played more this year in certain situations.
Jose was given minutes, and earned more.
Herb was given minutes, and earned more.
Naji was given minutes, and earned more.
Trey was given minutes, and earned more.
Posted on 5/3/23 at 11:06 am to TeddyPadillac
A lot of the guys you listed will have to beat out McCollum, Jose, Herb, Trey, and Dyson for minutes. Minutes were already hard to come by at the beginning of last season when everyone was healthy. It's going to be tough unless Zion and Ingram ends up with injuries like last season again.
This post was edited on 5/3/23 at 11:08 am
Posted on 5/3/23 at 11:27 am to six4lsu
quote:
Jax... hasn't figured out how to play tall. I know he had a late growth spurt but its on him to embrace being a big... Jax can switch on the perimeter better than most bigs....
I do think he would be more effective on offense paired with a pick and roll guard like Trae Young or Luka. Feeding him lobs...
I know that I am the last Pels fan on the Jax train but I would resign him or match if it was a super cheap deal.
100% agree. Trae young could get jax 12 ppg off of strictly lobs.
Jax is going to stick around the league for a while. There just arent many guys that big and that athletic. I've always said he reminds me of Javale mcgee. Javale was on the ESPN not top 10 every week early in his career for being an idiot on the court. Then he bounced around the league and eventually became a good backup center. I see Jax following the same route.
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