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Message
re: Saints experiment with Penning at G
Posted on 5/23/25 at 10:17 am to Geauxldilocks
Posted on 5/23/25 at 10:17 am to Geauxldilocks
quote:One of these things is not like the other.
busted on two picks with Penning and Salvederi
0
Posted on 5/23/25 at 11:46 am to tunechi
quote:People have EXTREMELY skewed ideas on what the success rates for each round are. Round 1 is only around 60%, so anyone expecting round 4 to be a sure thing is truly insane.
hard to label any 4th round pick a "bust"
Success Rates
quote:
Here's a more detailed breakdown:
By Round:
Round 1: A first-round pick has the highest chance of becoming a starter, with a success rate around 58%.
Round 2: Success rates decline in the second round, dropping to around 25%.
Rounds 3-7: Success rates continue to decrease significantly in the later rounds, with success rates around 16% (3rd), 11% (4th), 9% (5th), 6% (6th), and 0% (7th).
Of course the 7th round isn't an actual 0%, but it is closer to 0% than 1%. UDFAs have a higher success rate, partially because they can choose which team they go to for a better shot at making the roster and also because there are FAR more UDFAs than 7th round picks in a year.
I think it was said once that an UDFA has a better shot at making the roster than a 5th rounder, and not much worse than a 4th rounder (10% iirc, which does fit within the above numbers).
This post was edited on 5/23/25 at 11:49 am
Posted on 5/24/25 at 12:46 pm to tunechi
quote:
You keep saying this, but wasn't he a 4th round pick? Even as a guard, hard to label any 4th round pick a "bust"
The term bust has become way over used in the last 15-20 years as the draft coverage has grown. The term bust originally only applied to top 10 picks who didn't pan out. Now people want to throw around the term for any pick who doesn't pan out. The term is honestly ridiculous to use for late round picks.
Posted on 5/25/25 at 12:35 pm to Geauxldilocks
[quote]On the one hand I guess it’s needed though it’s likely to fail miserably, it’s another admission we busted on two picks with Penning and Salvederi.
I’m just happy we didn’t pick up the option on Penning and further tie us in to a horrible trade and pick.[/quote
Well now if Penning has a all pro season at Guard now you lose him unless you pay him big money. yea that's smart...Guess you didn't pay attention Penning played well at right tackle last year. he was raw when he was drafted so 2 or 3 years of playing at the NFL level can mature a player. he hasn't been injured so we may lose him and he be an all pro for some other team. he is doing just like Trey Hendrickson. Saints cut ties right when the player starts to mature and play their best Football.. Offensive line is hard to come by and he showed big steps forward last year... Saldeveri is a different situation he can't stay on the field..
I’m just happy we didn’t pick up the option on Penning and further tie us in to a horrible trade and pick.[/quote
Well now if Penning has a all pro season at Guard now you lose him unless you pay him big money. yea that's smart...Guess you didn't pay attention Penning played well at right tackle last year. he was raw when he was drafted so 2 or 3 years of playing at the NFL level can mature a player. he hasn't been injured so we may lose him and he be an all pro for some other team. he is doing just like Trey Hendrickson. Saints cut ties right when the player starts to mature and play their best Football.. Offensive line is hard to come by and he showed big steps forward last year... Saldeveri is a different situation he can't stay on the field..
Posted on 5/25/25 at 10:48 pm to Geauxldilocks
The funny thing is Moore never met Carr, yet all the positive things he said about him.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 6:48 am to gsmith5651
You should play poker sometimes.
Posted on 5/28/25 at 4:28 pm to Geauxldilocks
My take on this is we’ll be pulling guards on run plays a lot this year.
Posted on 6/5/25 at 7:06 pm to Soda City Spur
Posted on 6/5/25 at 9:32 pm to GynoSandberg
what is funny about that tweet is that Nowak once said Penning has never played guard.
The pod he does with Steve Geller. I promise you he said it may have been last year during the offseason.
But hopefully this switch is just what the doctor fricking ordered.
The pod he does with Steve Geller. I promise you he said it may have been last year during the offseason.
But hopefully this switch is just what the doctor fricking ordered.
Posted on 6/6/25 at 6:52 am to LooseCannon22282
PFT
quote:
The things I do well I think fit better at guard,” Penning said, via Luke Johnson of NOLA.com. “Not to say I can’t play tackle, but in the run game — especially at guard — the things I do well really shine.”
quote:
Penning said on Thursday that “you can be more aggressive” while playing guard and that he believes that’s part of what makes the switch one that will work out well for him.
This post was edited on 6/6/25 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 6/6/25 at 6:57 am to sec627fan
Even one excellent season at guard doesn't have us paying an insane amount for him. A fringe top 20 guard makes about $10mm.
Posted on 6/6/25 at 9:20 am to jrobic4
quote:
A fringe top 20 guard makes about $10mm.
21st highest rated guard is at $10M. He has a great season, you think he will say just pay me as a top 20 guard? I don't think he will ask to reset the market, but I think you may need to be closer to $17.5M per year which would have him around 10th*
*In no way am I saying he should be paid as a top 10 player at any position if he has 1 really good to great year. Just pointing out what I believe he will demand if he has a season that sniffs ProBowl considerations.
Also to put that $10M a year in context, Ruiz is sitting at $11M from his contract he extended 2 years ago. And we have seen contracts surge across the board since then
Posted on 6/6/25 at 11:21 am to Weekend Warrior79
Mekhi Becton had about as good of a season as you could have as a first year guard who transitioned to tackle. He got 2 for $20 mil in March
You could approach Penning’s team with a similar deal right now and get him for the two years at a value that is nearly what we would have paid on his 5th year option.
You could approach Penning’s team with a similar deal right now and get him for the two years at a value that is nearly what we would have paid on his 5th year option.
Posted on 6/6/25 at 11:37 am to GynoSandberg
This is what I’ve been saying since after his rookie year when I said he shoujd be moved to guard. Tackle you have to think more and react more. Glad to see our coaches recognized this.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/trevor-penning-the-things-i-do-well-fit-better-at-guard
Penning has a lot of ability. I’ve seen him pancake plenty of guys. Sucks b/c he could have perfected pkaying guard by now if our dumass coaches moved him years ago.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/trevor-penning-the-things-i-do-well-fit-better-at-guard
Penning has a lot of ability. I’ve seen him pancake plenty of guys. Sucks b/c he could have perfected pkaying guard by now if our dumass coaches moved him years ago.
This post was edited on 6/6/25 at 11:39 am
Posted on 6/6/25 at 2:21 pm to jrobic4
He will be a free agent. Agents like bidding wars teams don't. If he looks like the future LG you would do well to sign him during the year or you may be left with nothing.
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