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3
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:06 pm to CarolinaGamecock99
Are these respected sources yall are getting this more north stuff from?
I know we talk a lot about pressure, direction, and wind, but have we gotten to where they can somewhat forecast how big a storm can get? It’s pretty tight right now, but I know a lot can change.
I know we talk a lot about pressure, direction, and wind, but have we gotten to where they can somewhat forecast how big a storm can get? It’s pretty tight right now, but I know a lot can change.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:07 pm to Mr Roboto
Seems like all of the 18Z models are showing a turn northward even the ones that go farther south and west
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:09 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
Soo when will the nhc cone start to reflect the northern shift in ensembles?
There was a slight bump at 5:00 pm (Advisory 13), 13A was just issued, next track update comes with Advisory 14. In the 13 Discussion they acknowledged the ensemble spread:
quote:
The official
prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is
greater with more ensemble spread during this period.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:12 pm to rds dc
How much the wind shear ahead affects the strength of the system will have the greatest say on the overall northern component for the track in the coming days. Generally speaking, the stronger the system, the more northerly track we'll see.
I know you know all that.
Just saying.
I know you know all that.
Just saying.
This post was edited on 7/1/24 at 7:13 pm
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:12 pm to lsuman25
The US gulf coast is basically depending on the ridge setting up in Wisconsin it’s pretty amazing how far weather can have an effect. It’s all about timing hundreds of miles away
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:12 pm to lsuman25
CNN declares that Carriacou was flattened. I guess they didn't bother to look for post eyewall footage.
LINK
Their source was the Prime Minister
LINK
Their source was the Prime Minister
quote:
There were “widespread reports of destruction and devastation in Carriacou and Petite Martinique,” Grenada Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said in a Monday news briefing. “In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened.”
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:15 pm to real turf fan
quote:
Their source was the Prime Minister
Got to line up the foreign aid. There's no money in saying, "We seem to have fared better than expected."
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:19 pm to LegendInMyMind
What a beast
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:27 pm to lsuman25
Damn.
I manage some work that’s in the gulf, I’m thinking by tomorrow morning, our conference calls are going to start to get interesting.
I manage some work that’s in the gulf, I’m thinking by tomorrow morning, our conference calls are going to start to get interesting.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:29 pm to notiger1997
Baw on KLFY said this thing dies post Yucatán and we get nothing. It’ll be a tropical storm at best according to him.
I work in the oilfield as well. Going to be some interesting calls in the next few days.
I work in the oilfield as well. Going to be some interesting calls in the next few days.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:30 pm to CottonWasKing
quote:
I’ll be honest. If this thing wanted to spin down to a depression and drop about 5 inches of rain on the northeast part of Louisiana I would not be upset. I don’t want a storm I’ve got friends family and in laws along the coast but a little ole tropical depression never hurt nobody and a little rain would make my life a lot better.
I feel ya, baw. I’ve done that farm life in those parts.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:30 pm to Mr Roboto
quote:
Soo when will the nhc cone start to reflect the northern shift in ensembles?
At the next update at 10pm central, if all of the ensembles show a more northward trend
The NHC is usually slow to make big shifts in the cone unless all models show such a trend. This is to cover their arse by not over-reacting to a single outlier
This post was edited on 7/1/24 at 7:34 pm
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:34 pm to rds dc
You know these monster storms always trend poleward.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:35 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Got to line up the foreign aid. There's no money in saying, "We seem to have fared better than expected."
A vertical building is not necessarily an inhabitable building. At least 70% of the structures shown in the drone video were total losses. Sure, it didn’t look like Nagasaki ground zero but that doesn’t mean shite isn’t ruined.
This post was edited on 7/1/24 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:38 pm to Wedge
quote:
A vertical building is not necessarily an inhabitable building. At least 70% of the structures shown in the drone video were total losses. Sure, it didn’t look like Nagasaki ground zero but that doesn’t mean shite isn’t ruined.
Thanks for informing me.
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:38 pm to CarolinaGamecock99
Assuming it veers off the Yutacan as a tropical storm, how much strength could it realistically gain back for a TX or LA hit?
ETA - all I had to do was look at the color graph at the bottom.
According to this model, a TX or LA hit would likely be a tropical storm.
This post was edited on 7/1/24 at 7:50 pm
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:41 pm to BurningHeart
quote:
Compared to 12z GEFS
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:43 pm to BurningHeart
Since when does this north track occur?
Posted on 7/1/24 at 7:44 pm to Mr Roboto
YUGE shift North compared to 12.
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