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Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:08 am to Ebridg3
quote:
Indiana played no one this regular season except Oregon and Ohio State.
That exception is significant.
quote:
In the playoffs, they handed Alabama their 4th loss, 2nd blowout loss.. and then beat Oregon, again
Yeah.
quote:
Will Indiana beat Miami? Maybe
That is the right answer, I will be pulling for Miami. Mostly because of
quote:
recency bias and marketing
quote:
Also, stars matter. They absolutely matter.
Of course they do, as a rule. But football is a team sport, so it is the epitome of a place where the sum of the parts can equal significantly more or less than the whole. A team of players with 4-5 years of experience, most playing together, may be able to outperform a team of better quality players with 1 or 2 years of experience, only playing together for this season.
quote:
Miami has beaten Ohio State, Texas AM and Ole Miss
Indiana has beaten Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon twice, won every game they have played, and most in blowouts.
Miami has lost to Louisville and SMU, and their only regular-season win vs a team that was ranked at the end of the season was vs Notre Dame.win
quote:
Miami has objectively proven more
They have not. Fortunately, they will ultimately decide who gets the trophy on the field.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:16 am to RBWilliams8
I always thought the stars were over blown in proportions. When you look at the NFL there are tons of guys playing you really never heard of that came from much smaller programs than the elite ones.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:16 am to RBWilliams8
Is it not a fact that many of the 4 and 5 star players, stipulated by the recruting gurus, are given higher than deserved ratings due to support/backing/amount of self promotion and contributions to said recruiting services? I am more sure now than ever that there are many 2 and 3 star players from smaller hs that never had any backing/support/promotion that other equally talented players had that got them maybe undeserved 4-5 stars. I know LSU has had some awful 4 and 5 star players lately and I seriously question how they got those ratings
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:51 am to RBWilliams8
quote:
Key Offensive Starters/Contributors
A list of key contributors for Miami without Malachi Toney on it? Are you being serious here? Which AI gave you this?
Half of your list were still recruited players. Fletcher, Bain and Toney are foundational stars for them. Most of their OL, both starters and depth, is recruited. By the way- Markel Bell is not from the portal. He was a JUCO transfer. That mechanism has been around for 50+ years and is more in line with traditional recruiting than the portal.
Miami just brought in another recruiting class of 30 ranked 10th. They are definitely hunting for a few starters in the portal, especially at QB, but their foundation is still heavily based on HS recruiting.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:00 am to QB
quote:
Is it not a fact that many of the 4 and 5 star players, stipulated by the recruting gurus, are given higher than deserved ratings due to support/backing/amount of self promotion and contributions to said recruiting services?
Over many years, close to 60% of 5 star players are drafted and the majority of them are drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds. High 4 star players rank just a step behind them.
Ranking systems will never be perfect because they are based on the opinions of humans. They also depend heavily on kids going to camps and playing 7 on 7 go be seen and evaluated because there aren’t enough scouts to run around to all high school football games. That’s not a perfect system, but it’s all that’s available.
But while there will always be outliers who slip through the cracks or develop later than high school, the rankings still hold up well statistically when compared against draft outcomes. There have been multiple long-range reports that demonstrate this. That is what those rankings are really built on, not who will become the best components of a college football team, but may or may not make it at the next level.
This post was edited on 1/10/26 at 10:02 am
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:01 am to MrXYZ
To me this displays how much the male body (and mind hopefully) changes from age 16-24. A boy who may be bigger and faster than his peers in high school, may stop growing at 15 or 16, whereas some dudes continue to grow and develop physically until 21 or 22.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:39 am to RBWilliams8
-repost
This post was edited on 1/10/26 at 10:40 am
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:45 am to 1ranter1
quote:
For every Indiana that did something with a roster full of 3 stars there’s hundreds of rosters full of 3 stars that didn’t do shite.
exactly....
and if the ratings don't matter, then let's stop trying to recruit ANY 4 or 5 star guys, at all, HS or portal, and let's see how that turns out for us in the long run... shite, why recruit at all? let's just go back to holding tryouts to make the football team... i mean, recruiting ratings don't matter and they are wrong anyway, right?
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:53 am to RBWilliams8
Great post and been thinking about this also.
I don’t think there’s any logical point to signing more than 12-15 max HS players at this time. Unless they are on No NIL deal whatsoever and just a traditional scholarship over that 15 max range.
It has to be guys that contribute and see that they will have a contributing role by year 2 or we know they are gone.
I don’t think there’s any logical point to signing more than 12-15 max HS players at this time. Unless they are on No NIL deal whatsoever and just a traditional scholarship over that 15 max range.
It has to be guys that contribute and see that they will have a contributing role by year 2 or we know they are gone.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:21 am to misey94
quote:
A list of key contributors for Miami without Malachi Toney on it? Are you being serious here?
Add him to the list and ita 13:12 in the transfer's favor... I'm sure you can find a couple more and make it one or two more in favor of homegrown players if that makes you feel better.
quote:
Half of your list were still recruited players.
Yes, that's exactly what I said. Half of them being transfers obviously equates to the other half being recruits... Are you arguing just to argue at this point?
quote:
Which AI gave you this?
For this post, a simple google search. Is it incorrect aside from missing a player or two? No, I didn't do the legwork I did in the OP.
It STILL drives the point. Without their starting QB and the rest of those names in bold, do you believe they are in the playoffs? Miami didn't recruit this team organically. The transfer portal was not simply supplemental.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:25 am to chRxis
quote:
shite, why recruit at all?
Extremely hyperbolic.
quote:
and if the ratings don't matter,
Nobody is claiming that they flat out do not matter. The point is they aren't going to be as make-or-break as they were in the past. We mustn't break the bank on the bench for 2-3 years.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:30 am to RBWilliams8
quote:
We mustn't break the bank on the bench for 2-3 years.
i agree with this...
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:43 am to RBWilliams8
Great and interesting work, thanks!
Did I get this right…?
In new model of high frequency movement of players via transfer portal:
Star rating shows HS player’s potential over time with development - development into full potential takes time and good coaching for potential reach - the old model (assessing unproven HS players)
Evaluation enjoys less assessment risk as it is based on real college football experience, not potential.
Experience at different levels is proving to be more accurate and impactful than star rating for Division levels.
Sustained trends are yet to be proven in these early days of “Wild West”. Can IU / evaluation reproduce high performance year in year without Strong foundational pipeline with commitment beyond paycheck has a big role in sustainability of success?
Did I get this right…?
In new model of high frequency movement of players via transfer portal:
Star rating shows HS player’s potential over time with development - development into full potential takes time and good coaching for potential reach - the old model (assessing unproven HS players)
Evaluation enjoys less assessment risk as it is based on real college football experience, not potential.
Experience at different levels is proving to be more accurate and impactful than star rating for Division levels.
Sustained trends are yet to be proven in these early days of “Wild West”. Can IU / evaluation reproduce high performance year in year without Strong foundational pipeline with commitment beyond paycheck has a big role in sustainability of success?
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:46 am to RBWilliams8
I don’t need to re-evaluate anything as it relates to high school recruiting. The record is clear here.
Transfer portal recruiting is a completely different animal and stats matter much less.
Transfer portal recruiting is a completely different animal and stats matter much less.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:51 am to misey94
quote:
Over many years, close to 60% of 5 star players are drafted and the majority of them are drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds. High 4 star players rank just a step behind them.
Do you know that 60% of five star guys are drafted in the first two rounds, or are you guessing?
My limited research says otherwise, but like I said I did limited research.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 1:28 pm to RBWilliams8
quote:
It STILL drives the point. Without their starting QB and the rest of those names in bold, do you believe they are in the playoffs? Miami didn't recruit this team organically. The transfer portal was not simply supplemental.
I never said the portal didn’t matter to them or that they would be a playoff team without those players. But to dismiss the foundational recruiting, especially on the lines of scrimmage, and the star players that I mentioned is beyond disingenuous. You are moving from seemingly objective analysis to straw man territory with this.
Two of their biggest impact offensive players in the win over Ole Miss were recruited players. 4 of the OL starters were recruited through traditional means (including JUCO). In fact, there is only 1 transfer in their OL 3 deep. The entire starting LB corps. Their top Defensive Lineman Bain. And again, their DL 3 deep other than Mesidor and Blay are also recruits. As I said and still say- the foundation of this Miami team is still built on recruiting.
They just don’t have the same kind of roster construction as Indiana. The numbers, especially across the entire roster, bear that out and their continued heavy focus on recruiting (which you conveniently ignored) is evidence of that not shifting over time. They have one position where they have chosen to repeatedly rely on the portal, and that is QB.
This post was edited on 1/10/26 at 1:30 pm
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