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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 12/2/25 at 9:28 am to supadave3
quote:We all have our burdens to bear.
You have a teenage daughter at home too.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 10:11 am to hikingfan
quote:
Now just imagine what the Dems will do with a weaponized DOJ and a compliant Fed when they are in power.
Like arresting a former Prez?
Posted on 12/2/25 at 1:53 pm to hikingfan
quote:
Yeah, another institution politicized. Now just imagine what the Dems will do with a weaponized DOJ and a compliant Fed when they are in power. Never assume the other party will never be in power again.
We don't have to imagine it. We just need a bit of a memory.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:47 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:
As others have said, as long as Trump is in the White House, there will be rate cuts, justified or not
You mean like in 24' right before the eletion?
Posted on 12/2/25 at 7:59 pm to bigjoe1
quote:
Trump doesn't control the Fed.
He will in May when he appoints a new chairman.
So are you saying Biden controlled Powell?
Posted on 12/2/25 at 8:02 pm to djrunner
Biden didn't control anything. Doubt he even knew what the Fed was doing.
Posted on 12/2/25 at 8:23 pm to bigjoe1
You do remember when Biden said he was not going to appoint Powell in 21' and then they took a ride on AF1 together right?
This post was edited on 12/2/25 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 12/3/25 at 9:32 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
85% chance of a .25 cut in Dec. that's the expectation
It has to have gone up after today's jobs release.
Tariffs not having a big impact, housing/rent costs going down, sluggish jobs. Fed will surely cut.
A jumbo would be awesome but not happening.
Also: I believe the Saudi's are helping keep oil prices low to help Trump get his rate cuts through. Once the cuts are done, I think oil is going to have a big year in 2026.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 10:20 am to bigjoe1
quote:
One this month for sure. Question now is how many in 2026.
There will be a new chairman in May and we know he'll be dovish.
Agree with this. Another way to say this is "... and we know he'll be a puppet."
Posted on 12/3/25 at 10:24 am to RoyalWe
quote:
We all have our burdens to bear.
Moody creatures. It also amazes me how she can shift from a “know it all” adult to a 5 year old toddler in 30’seconds or less.
Posted on 12/7/25 at 8:12 am to KWL85
TLDR: Hassett has given indicators in the past of being independent-minded.
From Jason Kelly's The Kelly Letter note dated 12/7/2025:
———
Hassett Might Think for Himself
It’s helpful to stocks that Kevin Hassett’s rise as a Fed contender has produced more shrugs than shudders.
In Make the Fed Cut Again? Hassett on Deck in Note 48 sent last Sunday, I wrote that, despite worries Hassett will be a White House puppet cutting rates on command, “there’s no guarantee the puppet will stay attached to its strings. Jerome Powell didn’t. … So, if Powell serves as precedent, there’s a chance Trump’s next appointee will behave more independently than intended. His term will outlive the administration, after all, and with Trump’s poll numbers declining, a career-minded economist might consider it unwise to align too closely.”
More analysts came out in support of that view last week.
Anna Wong, chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics and former economist at the Federal Reserve, wrote in a note that Hassett has a record of standing up for Fed independence.
“Actions speak louder than words,” she emphasized when introducing a 2018 anecdote from President Trump’s first administration.
When Trump was itching to fire Powell even back then, Hassett — in his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers — told reporters that the Fed chief was “100% safe.” In his 2021 memoir, he wrote: “I didn’t ask permission to do that.”
Wong and her team’s takeaway is that “when push comes to shove, Hassett will take the side of preserving the Fed’s independence to conduct monetary policy. If he leans dovish, it will be because his assessment of the economy reflects his ideological beliefs.”
The clearest sign investors aren’t spooked is inflation breakevens. They’re the bond market’s built-in forecast of future inflation, taken from the gap between regular Treasury yields and their inflation-protected counterparts.
What are they saying now? That bond investors are untroubled — breakevens remain near post-election lows. There was a small rise late last month, but it looked more like oil-price noise than any kind of inflation-crisis cue. If a Hassett Fed were expected to botch inflation, this is the gauge that would be shouting. It isn’t. Nothing looks out of line.
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer has the simplest read on the calm over Hassett: meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Thursday’s “Almost Daily Grant’s” put it this way:
He may be a stooge, but one may wonder how much a politically-captured Fed would differ from the current iteration, which is almost certain to trim the 3.75% to 4% funds rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting … That would mark the third quarter-point downshift since September, when current chair Jerome Powell shepherded through a cut in the name of “risk management.”
Grant’s may be right: whatever the chair’s nameplate, the Fed is already on the rate-cut path.
From Jason Kelly's The Kelly Letter note dated 12/7/2025:
———
Hassett Might Think for Himself
It’s helpful to stocks that Kevin Hassett’s rise as a Fed contender has produced more shrugs than shudders.
In Make the Fed Cut Again? Hassett on Deck in Note 48 sent last Sunday, I wrote that, despite worries Hassett will be a White House puppet cutting rates on command, “there’s no guarantee the puppet will stay attached to its strings. Jerome Powell didn’t. … So, if Powell serves as precedent, there’s a chance Trump’s next appointee will behave more independently than intended. His term will outlive the administration, after all, and with Trump’s poll numbers declining, a career-minded economist might consider it unwise to align too closely.”
More analysts came out in support of that view last week.
Anna Wong, chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics and former economist at the Federal Reserve, wrote in a note that Hassett has a record of standing up for Fed independence.
“Actions speak louder than words,” she emphasized when introducing a 2018 anecdote from President Trump’s first administration.
When Trump was itching to fire Powell even back then, Hassett — in his role as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers — told reporters that the Fed chief was “100% safe.” In his 2021 memoir, he wrote: “I didn’t ask permission to do that.”
Wong and her team’s takeaway is that “when push comes to shove, Hassett will take the side of preserving the Fed’s independence to conduct monetary policy. If he leans dovish, it will be because his assessment of the economy reflects his ideological beliefs.”
The clearest sign investors aren’t spooked is inflation breakevens. They’re the bond market’s built-in forecast of future inflation, taken from the gap between regular Treasury yields and their inflation-protected counterparts.
What are they saying now? That bond investors are untroubled — breakevens remain near post-election lows. There was a small rise late last month, but it looked more like oil-price noise than any kind of inflation-crisis cue. If a Hassett Fed were expected to botch inflation, this is the gauge that would be shouting. It isn’t. Nothing looks out of line.
Grant’s Interest Rate Observer has the simplest read on the calm over Hassett: meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Thursday’s “Almost Daily Grant’s” put it this way:
He may be a stooge, but one may wonder how much a politically-captured Fed would differ from the current iteration, which is almost certain to trim the 3.75% to 4% funds rate by 25 basis points at next week’s meeting … That would mark the third quarter-point downshift since September, when current chair Jerome Powell shepherded through a cut in the name of “risk management.”
Grant’s may be right: whatever the chair’s nameplate, the Fed is already on the rate-cut path.
Posted on 12/7/25 at 4:42 pm to RoyalWe
I don't have much of an opinion on Hassett, good or bad. Your post gives hope that he may think independently. So not making any judgement on him. I just want the Fed to act independently and make data driven decisions. A president, especially one that is not data driven, should not be making Fed decisions. I believe Trump wants a puppet in place, which would be a mistake.
I think we get a cut next week, but the data is not clear. Anyone predicting next years cuts are doing so without seeing the data. I didn't read this whole thread, but know that some idiots will claim we should make 4 or 5 cuts with zero data to back it up. I do not think inflation nor job numbers are in a good place and a properly functioning Fed should base their decisions on facts.
I think we get a cut next week, but the data is not clear. Anyone predicting next years cuts are doing so without seeing the data. I didn't read this whole thread, but know that some idiots will claim we should make 4 or 5 cuts with zero data to back it up. I do not think inflation nor job numbers are in a good place and a properly functioning Fed should base their decisions on facts.
This post was edited on 12/8/25 at 8:04 am
Posted on 12/7/25 at 9:59 pm to Rankest
Yes
Posted on 12/8/25 at 8:54 am to KWL85
quote:They say that, but then they didn't cut for months despite the data being clear that they should. Tariff inflation did not occur despite months of import prices remaining unchanged while the job market was slowly eroding. Add to that the fact the BLS was grossly exaggerating hiring data.
I just want the Fed to act independently and make data driven decisions. A president, especially one that is not data driven, should not be making Fed decisions. I believe Trump wants a puppet in place, which would be a mistake.
If your focus is on data, I want to point out there even was less clear data in September 2024 when the Fed made a jumbo cut before the November election. So these guys & gals definitely let emotions/personal preference dictate their decisions - Trump or no Trump.
Posted on 12/8/25 at 9:44 am to TDFreak
What data supported rate cuts that didn't happen? The inflation rate has never reached the goal. The jobs data has somewhat erratic. I agree that the Fed feels pressure regardless of president.
Posted on 12/8/25 at 10:25 am to TDFreak
I suspect a baby cut is coming Wednesday, and then the Fed will begin washing QE through the money system .... injecting more liquidity into the shaky financial system (banks)
printer go Brrrrrrrrrrr .....
printer go Brrrrrrrrrrr .....
This post was edited on 12/8/25 at 10:26 am
Posted on 12/8/25 at 10:34 am to KWL85
quote:there is no data supporting rate cuts. the equity markets are at all time high valuations and there's still a record amount of capital in money market funds.
What data supported rate cuts that didn't happen?
LINK
the only justification for further cuts is political. i welcome any dissenting view or evidence to the contrary
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:38 am to cgrand
Posted on 12/8/25 at 11:41 am to cgrand
This will be the justification for the 25bps cut this week.
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