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re: 2022 NBA draft order tracker
Posted on 2/15/22 at 8:42 pm to Soggymoss
Posted on 2/15/22 at 8:42 pm to Soggymoss
quote:
Honestly, the best case scenario for us would be:
Lakers get knocked out of play in by us, Portland and/or Sacramento and end up with top 10 pick
We lose 1 of the 2 play in games
That would mean we end up with a top 10 pick from the Lakers
Our pick goes to Portland
2 seconds go to Memphis
2 seconds go to Charlotte
That would give us a 1st round pick this year, and end all of our future pick obligations, enabling us to trade away as many 1sts as we need/want to to grab an upgrade at the 2.
I don't think you know what "best case scenario" means
Best case scenario would easily be the Pels knocking the Lakers out of the play-in, therefore winning the 8th seed, then going on to win the NBA championship, while the Lakers pick ended up as the #1 pick.
Second best scenario would be both Pels and Lakers playing in the 9th and 10th seed play-in game, Pels winning, but then losing the following play-in game, thus both teams ending up in the lottery and then landing picks #1 and #2.
Your scenario isn't even top 3
1
Posted on 2/16/22 at 7:55 am to RUFshreve
quote:
I'm also trying to be realistic in laying out a best case scenario
Literally none of what you said is realistic.
Now, I will say it's my fault, I should've added best case realistic scenario in that post.
This post was edited on 2/16/22 at 8:25 am
Posted on 2/17/22 at 7:51 am to Soggymoss
current standings
This post was edited on 2/17/22 at 7:51 am
Posted on 2/17/22 at 4:47 pm to cgrand
Best case scenario aside: is it possible (and likely) that the Pels won’t have a 1st round draft pick this year?
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:03 pm to Suntiger
quote:
Best case scenario aside: is it possible (and likely) that the Pels won’t have a 1st round draft pick this year?
Obviously "possible" we end up with no 1st round pick...and simple odds would say it is more likely than not...we end up with no 1st round pick. But hope springs eternal, whenever there is the possibility of ping pong balls deciding the issue.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:06 pm to Suntiger
As of today, I think we basically have a 1 in 3 shot of having a first round pick. And if we have one, it'll be a top 10 pick. Either our own 1-4 or the Lakers 1-10.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:08 pm to Suntiger
quote:
is it possible (and likely) that the Pels won’t have a 1st round draft pick this year?
The Pels have to win the lottery to keep their pick, that does seem unlikely.
The Lakers have been shaky though and AD just got hurt again. Combine that with Portland keeping it rolling after the trade, and the Pels, Spurs and Kings all not trying to lose, and I don't think it's crazy to think we get to keep the Lakers pick. They are currently 12th, we just need 2 teams to pass them up.
This post was edited on 2/17/22 at 5:09 pm
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:31 pm to TigerinATL
SAC is 6 back, unlikely that they pass them up.
SAS 4.5 back, no reason to think they will either.
POR might, or they could get smart, hope the pels don’t make the playoffs and not make their own pick worse by winning.
WAS nor NKK is going to do any winning.
I would say that the chances are not good that we get a top 10 lakers pick.
SAS 4.5 back, no reason to think they will either.
POR might, or they could get smart, hope the pels don’t make the playoffs and not make their own pick worse by winning.
WAS nor NKK is going to do any winning.
I would say that the chances are not good that we get a top 10 lakers pick.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:32 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
They are currently 12th, we just need 2 teams to pass them up.
Yep...and even if Lakers finish in 7-10 spot in the West, we still have a shot at getting their 1st round pick, if the Lakers don't make it through the play-in tournament, and the ping pong balls cooperate.
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:37 pm to cgrand
quote:
POR might, or they could get smart,
If they are true to the their stated goal of rebuilding around Dame, Hart and Simons leading them to the playoffs is probably a better outcome than finishing 7th in the lottery.
As for us and the other teams, make no mistake, we need the Lakers to stumble down the stretch, but we're in striking distance because they've been stumbling off and on most of the season.
This post was edited on 2/17/22 at 5:38 pm
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:46 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
If they are true to the their stated goal of rebuilding around Dame, Hart and Simons leading them to the playoffs is probably a better outcome than finishing 7th in the lottery.
you could easily make the case that picking 7th and 8-15 and securing two cost controlled prospects around dame/hart/Simons is smart rebuilding. Hell just worst case of picking 7th or better with their own pick is smart rebuilding especially in the same season they just jettisoned CJ and the rest
Posted on 2/17/22 at 5:50 pm to cgrand
quote:
you could easily make the case that picking 7th and 8-15 and securing two cost controlled prospects around dame/hart/Simons is smart rebuilding.
Over what time horizon? Dame has always seemed different, but I have to think this looks like they are a legit top 4 seed in the West by the trade deadline next year. 2 rookies are not going to do that. Now if Detroit has told them they need at least a top 8 pick to get Grant maybe they have reason to lose. But I don't think Dame's timeline allows for a rebuild with drafted players.
This post was edited on 2/17/22 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 3/1/22 at 10:08 am to cgrand
current standings
Posted on 3/1/22 at 11:48 am to cgrand
What we need:
Pelicans and trailblazers go on a hot streak to push LA Lakers to 11th.
That gives us a 10th overall pick unless some screwy shite happens
Pelicans and trailblazers go on a hot streak to push LA Lakers to 11th.
That gives us a 10th overall pick unless some screwy shite happens
Posted on 3/1/22 at 11:57 am to cgrand
Just ran it thru my HAL 9000...Lakers will end up 35-47. Everyone should make our future draft position predictions...based on that knowledge
This post was edited on 3/1/22 at 11:59 am
Posted on 3/1/22 at 12:07 pm to htran90
I think it’s more likely the Blazers continue to lose….
We need to beat the Kings on Wed obviously, but they are purposely trying to win now. It’s unlikely the Pels can make the 8 seed, but the Kings and possibly Spurs need to keep winning as well. We need that 9 seed though, and the Lakers to keep losing.
We need to beat the Kings on Wed obviously, but they are purposely trying to win now. It’s unlikely the Pels can make the 8 seed, but the Kings and possibly Spurs need to keep winning as well. We need that 9 seed though, and the Lakers to keep losing.
Posted on 3/1/22 at 12:13 pm to TechTiger
so what happens if the Lakers finish 9th in the playoff standings, and we are 10th, lets say they are 1 game better than us in the win column at seasons end. And that being said we are 10th worst and the Lakers are 11th worst when it comes to draft standings.
If we beat them in the play in game, do we jump them and they become 10th worst, and therefore we get thier pick?
If we beat them in the play in game, do we jump them and they become 10th worst, and therefore we get thier pick?
Posted on 3/1/22 at 12:18 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
If we beat them in the play in game, do we jump them and they become 10th worst, and therefore we get thier pick?
No. Draft order is unaffected by play-in wins or losses, unless you make the actual playoffs.
So, in your scenario, to get the Lakers pick, we would have to win our 2nd play-in game against the loser of the 7-8 game and make the playoffs. That's when we would get the pick.
[Edit] I should have said "likely get the pick." Because we have an 80% chance of getting the pick if the Lakers finish 10th in draft order, while we only have a 7% chance if they finish 11th.
This post was edited on 3/1/22 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 3/1/22 at 12:19 pm to TeddyPadillac
Think I read the play-in games do NOT count toward your win/loss % as far as draft position is concerned. They take the top 16 teams after play-ins, then rank the rest off where they were BEFORE the play-in started.
(Edit) Oops sorry...GOP_Tiger nailed it already.
(Edit) Oops sorry...GOP_Tiger nailed it already.
This post was edited on 3/1/22 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 3/1/22 at 12:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
No. Draft order is unaffected by play-in wins or losses, unless you make the actual playoffs.
So, in your scenario, to get the Lakers pick, we would have to win our 2nd play-in game against the loser of the 7-8 game and make the playoffs. That's when we would get the pick.
[Edit] I should have said "likely get the pick." Because we have an 80% chance of getting the pick if the Lakers finish 10th in draft order, while we only have a 7% chance if they finish 11th.
Don't know about you, but I'll only feel safe, if Lakers end up with 9th pick before Ping Pong balls. If they do end up 9th and we lose to that 3% shot...I'm gonna go out and kill EVERY Ping Pong ball I can find !
This post was edited on 3/1/22 at 12:36 pm
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