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Started By
Message
re: ESPN Projects Saints With WORST Defense In 2018
Posted on 5/29/18 at 8:53 pm to DoubleDown
Posted on 5/29/18 at 8:53 pm to DoubleDown
quote:
a lot more factors like SOS
About the only thing as fricking useless as preseason SoS is preseason power rankings.
I might even say power rankings are more accurate because they aren't completely based on last year like SoS is.
1
Posted on 5/29/18 at 9:18 pm to tzimme4
Anyone who tries to use FPI for ANY argument from this point forward will be laughed at and downvoted en mass.
Posted on 5/29/18 at 9:32 pm to 50_Tiger
sounds like solid logic.
no.10 scoring defense from a year ago that finished the season with multiple starters and key reserves on IR...gets all those starters and reserves back minus KV.
Goes out and adds the no.2 edge rusher in the draft, a top 5 PFF ILB, and a top 5 PFF slot defender to replace KV
they also return every coach on staff from that defense.
I can see how this D worse.
no.10 scoring defense from a year ago that finished the season with multiple starters and key reserves on IR...gets all those starters and reserves back minus KV.
Goes out and adds the no.2 edge rusher in the draft, a top 5 PFF ILB, and a top 5 PFF slot defender to replace KV
they also return every coach on staff from that defense.
I can see how this D worse.
Posted on 5/29/18 at 9:34 pm to bonethug0108
So reading through how FPI works, it basically looks at last year, vegas' win total lines, starters returning (but NOT starters added? WTF?), starting and backup QBs (which I kind of get but you cannot predict injuries so backup QB should only be a positive if a team has a legit "starter" as a backup, as most teams just have a backup), and coaching staff and QB changes.
So the BIGGEST issue I see with the system is not projecting added new starters and how they can impact the team.
But being that ONLY QB is taken individually as a position (the returning starters thing seems to not take into account the actual players returning or leaving), this system is pretty much dead in the water here.
The second biggest flaw is using last year's stats to predict this season. Unless we are looking at individual players and their impact on their side of the ball, this is a futile exercise.
And then there is the fact that vegas is often wrong on win totals, and sometimes very wrong.
I mean the only thing it seems to do right is look at the coaching staff and QBs, but I don't know how they actually weight coaching changes (is a firing weighted differently than a coordinator getting a head coaching job?).
So the BIGGEST issue I see with the system is not projecting added new starters and how they can impact the team.
But being that ONLY QB is taken individually as a position (the returning starters thing seems to not take into account the actual players returning or leaving), this system is pretty much dead in the water here.
The second biggest flaw is using last year's stats to predict this season. Unless we are looking at individual players and their impact on their side of the ball, this is a futile exercise.
And then there is the fact that vegas is often wrong on win totals, and sometimes very wrong.
I mean the only thing it seems to do right is look at the coaching staff and QBs, but I don't know how they actually weight coaching changes (is a firing weighted differently than a coordinator getting a head coaching job?).
This post was edited on 5/29/18 at 9:36 pm
Posted on 5/29/18 at 10:30 pm to tzimme4
Hopefully the team sees this.
Posted on 5/29/18 at 11:15 pm to tzimme4
quote:
the model thought the praise being heaped on the New Orleans defense was a bit overstated,
doesn't add up.
Number of QB sacks went way up and so did batted passes at the Line. That's a big improvement by D-Line.
opposing QB's had a much lower passer rating average at the end of the season compared to the years before.
The Saints were 3rd in the league in interceptions too right?
I'm not picking up what they are putting down.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 12:37 am to tzimme4
ESPN;DR
Posted on 5/30/18 at 12:43 am to tzimme4
I’m okay with this. They do not want to jinx us.
In reality I believe we will have a top 3 offense and a top 10 defense. All we need is some Gris Gris and we will be headed to a great season.
In reality I believe we will have a top 3 offense and a top 10 defense. All we need is some Gris Gris and we will be headed to a great season.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 4:38 am to tzimme4
Everything's
Strictly
Political
Now
ESPN is a joke. They're too busy trying to push left wing bullshite down everyone's throats to project anything accurately.
Strictly
Political
Now
ESPN is a joke. They're too busy trying to push left wing bullshite down everyone's throats to project anything accurately.
This post was edited on 5/30/18 at 4:39 am
Posted on 5/30/18 at 7:10 am to tzimme4
If the results on the field don't match the FPI model, I think there is a better chance that the model is inaccurate than the Saints Defense is terrible.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 8:37 am to tzimme4
Tough to have a good defense in our division so they (ESPN) may be hedging their bets. Let's be honest as long as Lattimore is healthy you guys will have a very serviceable defense.
This post was edited on 5/30/18 at 8:39 am
Posted on 5/30/18 at 1:06 pm to DoubleDown
quote:
The article mentioned that it seemed a bit extreme for the Saints and I agree with that. However, keep in mind they broke down a lot more factors like SOS which I think they had the Saints as either the 6th or 8th hardest SOS.
It’s all a crapshoot and guesswork though.
Pretty sure our SOS last year (which is actually a useful stat unlike the preseason SOS stat that you're referring to) was up there. Shouldn't that further prove that our defense played pretty great despite the schedule and injuries? I just don't see how we take that big of a step back unless our injuries are worse than the last two years, which were very bad themselves.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 2:56 pm to tzimme4
quote:
The FPI is not buying the Saints' defensive resurgence, as the model has pegged New Orleans as having the worst defense in the NFL, though it remains a top contender because it has the best offense.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 3:51 pm to JoshWhoDat4Life
If I were Dennis Allen I would take this article and put a copy in every defensive player's locker.
Posted on 5/30/18 at 4:25 pm to tzimme4
quote:
ESPN Projects to have the WORST Sports reporting in 2018.
FIFY
Posted on 5/30/18 at 10:18 pm to tzimme4
Straight bullsh.
Posted on 5/31/18 at 12:35 am to WicKed WayZ
quote:Like 20th ranked defense overall? Not arguing, just curious.
I could see a step back but only to around 20
I really think we are a sure thing at top half of the league imo.
Posted on 5/31/18 at 7:39 am to tzimme4
I could see us bein statistically worse than last year. The schedule will be harder. As long as we play timely defense and make some plays to keep the offense going we’ll be good.
Posted on 5/31/18 at 8:02 am to LooseCannon22282
quote:
Number of QB sacks went way up and so did batted passes at the Line. That's a big improvement by D-Line.
opposing QB's had a much lower passer rating average at the end of the season compared to the years before.
The Saints were 3rd in the league in interceptions too right?
Look at the games where we held opponents to 20 or less:
Week 3 vs Carolina. They were averaging 12 ppg
Week 4 vs Miami. Again averaging 12.5ppg with Cutler.
Week 7 vs GB. Backup QB. This was no A. Rodgers
Week 8 vs Chicago. Rookie QB making his 4th start in our house
Week 9 vs Tampa. Winston was knocked out of the game
Week 10 vs Buffalo. That team was in turmoil. They got rid of their best run defender and replaced Tyrod with a rookie.
Week 14 vs Atlanta. New first time OC
Week 15 vs Jets. Bryce petty started this game
Week 16 vs Atlanta. Same as week 14
I doubt we face 5 backup QBs and a rookie this year.
Our schedule is brutal after the bye. We have 3 out of 4 games on the road then come home to Atlanta and Philly and then 3 straight road games.
91 out of 140 teams with 3 straight road games wither lost 2 of the games or all 3. Teams are twice as likely to go 0-3(25 times) than 3-0(10 times).
I think we see a regression but I hope Im wrong.
Posted on 5/31/18 at 8:21 am to saintsfan1977
quote:
Week 3 vs Carolina. They were averaging 12 ppg
Week 4 vs Miami. Again averaging 12.5ppg with Cutler.
Week 7 vs GB. Backup QB. This was no A. Rodgers
Week 8 vs Chicago. Rookie QB making his 4th start in our house
Week 9 vs Tampa. Winston was knocked out of the game
Week 10 vs Buffalo. That team was in turmoil. They got rid of their best run defender and replaced Tyrod with a rookie.
Week 14 vs Atlanta. New first time OC
Week 15 vs Jets. Bryce petty started this game
Week 16 vs Atlanta. Same as week 14
1) Playoff Team
2) Bad Team
3) Fringe Playoff Team
4) Ok Team
5) Bad Team
6) Playoff Team
7) Playoff Team
8) Bad Team
9) Playoff Team
5 out of the 9 times in your example we played a playoff / fringe playoff team (55.55%)
3 out of the 9 times we played a Bad Team (33.3%)
1 out of the 9 times we played an OK Team (11.1%)
Not to mention the entire Defense we had on IR and the loss of Lattimore for a few games.
Regression? HAH.
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