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Message
re: Update: Situation in Iran thread
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:55 am to BeefSupreme
Posted on 1/15/26 at 10:55 am to BeefSupreme
Just read an article that is an excellent analysis of what happens next in Iran. The author posits that the age of the ayatollahs and theocracy is probably dead, and that the IRGC is most likely to try and turn the country into a military dictatorship a la North Korea. The best hope for avoiding this is that the various factions in the country (monarchists, anti-monarchists, radicals, non-Persian minorities) come together as one to force the creation of a democratic government. Quite a few smart people are not confident in that last scenario materializing.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/three-forces-shaping-post-revolutionary-iran
quote:
Iran is moving along three parallel paths of regime change, each racing on its own timetable and together defining the country’s historic moment.
The first is biological and inescapable. The political system’s apex is occupied by an aging supreme leader whose mortality has become the regime’s most visible expression of decay. Ali Khamenei is nearing 90, and if Iran’s society or an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) soft coup does not remove him, nature almost certainly will.
Yet the passing of Khamenei would not, by itself, usher in democracy. Over decades, the IRGC, a US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization, has positioned itself to inherit the state, paving the way for a post-clerical order. This future would more closely resemble a military dictatorship than a republic.
A third post-revolutionary trend presses from below. The social contract between the regime and most of Iranian society—especially the young—has eroded beyond repair. Here, American political-military choices matter most. Should Washington openly align with popular pressure, it could become a decisive accelerant.
quote:
The Revolutionary Guards have long ceased to be merely a parallel military. The IRGC is a self-financing power structure that fuses battlefield experience, economic capture, and regional penetration into a single system of rule. Born in the turbulence of the 1979 Revolution and intended to suppress counter-revolutionary threats, the corps were hardened by the Iran-Iraq War. Post-war reconstruction elevated the engineering and construction arm, Khatam al-Anbia, into the country’s dominant contractor.
quote:
Once the supreme leader passes, there won’t be a very powerful ayatollah around that can match the stature of Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolutionary leader and founder of the state, and Khamenei, the successor who ruled Iran for decades. The power vacuum in the clerical dimension of the Islamic Republic has been reinforcing the Guards’ claim to be the country’s ultimate oppressor. Should the system survive Khamenei’s passing, it is unlikely to remain a theocratic tyranny in its current form. Instead, Iran would drift toward a military dictatorship cloaked in revolutionary symbolism—less Qom, more Pyongyang—where uniforms matter the most.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/three-forces-shaping-post-revolutionary-iran
1
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:00 am to Victor R Franko
quote:
They start killing again Trump approves the attack and claims he tried to take the Mullahs at their word, but they're untrustworthy. Meanwhile assets are arriving and hopefully in place for full scale arse whipping.
He knows they won't keep their word, they never do. This is what's going to happen.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:05 am to Victor R Franko
After having some time to get my panties out of a bunch and to think about it more, I think last night Trump was doing what he always does and trying to play 4D galaxy brain chess. I've seen some comments and tweets about how we got Iran to overreact and show off their defense capabilities and their emergency protocols and that makes sense to me. Like others have said, we're most likely waiting until the carrier from the South China Sea gets close enough to the ME that we feel comfortable. I have a feeling we kept it in the South China Sea instead of moving it toward Iran sooner due to the Chinese naval exercise that was going on near Taiwan.
I still think we're gonna hit them, but I think we just need time to get our assets in order.
I still think we're gonna hit them, but I think we just need time to get our assets in order.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:08 am to VolInBavaria
Exactly. Read this:
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
FROM TODAYS NEWSLETTER:
I believe we are closer to United States intervention than most people are prepared to admit. Not because of a single declaration or a visible mobilization, but because of the choreography of the past 24 hours and the way modern wars now announce themselves without ever formally beginning. What unfolded last night did not feel improvised. It felt sequenced.
First came the quiet movements. Personnel were drawn down from American facilities across the Middle East. Nothing dramatic. No sirens. Just the kind of logistical adjustments that only matter if you know what they usually precede. These moves rarely signal intention on their own. But they do signal readiness.
Then came the statement. President Donald Trump said the killings in Iran had stopped. It was confusing for many people, as the tone seemed to have abruptly changed.
The claim was striking not because it was reassuring, but because Iran’s internet remained largely dark and has been so for over a week.
When a country is still digitally sealed, information does not flow outward. Assertions of calm in that environment are not confirmations. They are messages.
Within hours, Reuters published a report citing Western military officials who said an operation could be imminent. The language was careful. It always is. They did not give timelines. No confirmation.
Just enough specificity to travel instantly through every foreign ministry and general staff in the region.
Then came the signals directed at Tehran itself. Messages, some public, some not, that Washington was prepared to act. Shortly after, Iran closed its airspace, and many airlines canceled flights to the region. Commercial aviation does not shut down lightly. When it does, it reflects fear of what might cross the sky without warning.
And then the final note. Fighter jets began moving across Iraqi airspace. Loud enough to be noticed. Visible enough to be shared widely across social media and OSINT circles.
Not an attack, but not an accident either. Just another reminder of proximity. Of reach.
None of this, taken alone, proves that a strike was about to occur. Taken together, it looks like a textbook scare operation. The kind designed to paralyze decision making, saturate intelligence channels, and force adversaries to prepare for the wrong moment. This would not be the first time a pump fake appeared before the real move.
It is important to say this clearly. The United States does not yet have the full military posture in place for a sustained regional defense, let alone a prolonged war. Carrier coverage, missile defense saturation, and logistics depth are visible, and they are not fully assembled. That matters. Which is precisely why last night mattered.
The effect was confusion. For analysts, whose job is to make sense of this. Among governments. Among markets. An attack felt possible. Plausible. Maybe even imminent.
That ambiguity was the point. If Washington strikes, it will want the action to come as a surprise. Not after days of televised buildup, but out of silence. That is, if the goal is effectiveness rather than theater.
The coming week may bring more of this. More signals. More information that cannot be verified because the country at the center of it remains sealed from the world.
But if President Trump is taken at his word, and that is never simple, his threshold is not theoretical. It is personal. He has said repeatedly that the scale of killing matters. If credible numbers emerge showing how many protesters actually died, the calculation could shift quickly.
In that context, the USS Abraham Lincoln is leaving the South China Sea and heading for the Middle East. The order, quietly issued by the Pentagon, sends one of America’s most powerful ships and its entire carrier strike group away from China’s front yard and into the U.S. Central Command theater, where Iran is now the central focus.
Until now, there was no American carrier in the region at all, a rare gap visible on open source fleet maps. The Lincoln is the closest available answer to that absence.
The ship itself is massive. A Nimitz class nuclear powered aircraft carrier, capable of carrying around 90 aircraft, including F A 18 Super Hornets, EA 18G Growlers, E 2D Hawkeyes, and helicopters. It recently conducted F 35C flight operations during its Indo Pacific cruise. It is a floating airbase able to project stealth, electronic warfare, and early warning to any coastline within reach.
Flanking it is Carrier Strike Group 3, including guided missile destroyers USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy, and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. Below the surface, at least one attack submarine is believed to be accompanying the group, with logistics ships keeping the formation fueled and supplied.
The transit to the Middle East will take roughly a week, depending on routing and speed. OSINT accounts tracking its movement expect it to appear near the Gulf by late January.
Operations no longer begin with declarations. They begin with patterns. The pattern that emerged last night was not random. It was deliberate. And it was meant to be seen.
Whether it was rehearsal, misdirection, or a last minute plan that was ultimately canceled remains unclear. But rehearsals are not performed unless the actors expect to eventually take the stage.
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
FROM TODAYS NEWSLETTER:
I believe we are closer to United States intervention than most people are prepared to admit. Not because of a single declaration or a visible mobilization, but because of the choreography of the past 24 hours and the way modern wars now announce themselves without ever formally beginning. What unfolded last night did not feel improvised. It felt sequenced.
First came the quiet movements. Personnel were drawn down from American facilities across the Middle East. Nothing dramatic. No sirens. Just the kind of logistical adjustments that only matter if you know what they usually precede. These moves rarely signal intention on their own. But they do signal readiness.
Then came the statement. President Donald Trump said the killings in Iran had stopped. It was confusing for many people, as the tone seemed to have abruptly changed.
The claim was striking not because it was reassuring, but because Iran’s internet remained largely dark and has been so for over a week.
When a country is still digitally sealed, information does not flow outward. Assertions of calm in that environment are not confirmations. They are messages.
Within hours, Reuters published a report citing Western military officials who said an operation could be imminent. The language was careful. It always is. They did not give timelines. No confirmation.
Just enough specificity to travel instantly through every foreign ministry and general staff in the region.
Then came the signals directed at Tehran itself. Messages, some public, some not, that Washington was prepared to act. Shortly after, Iran closed its airspace, and many airlines canceled flights to the region. Commercial aviation does not shut down lightly. When it does, it reflects fear of what might cross the sky without warning.
And then the final note. Fighter jets began moving across Iraqi airspace. Loud enough to be noticed. Visible enough to be shared widely across social media and OSINT circles.
Not an attack, but not an accident either. Just another reminder of proximity. Of reach.
None of this, taken alone, proves that a strike was about to occur. Taken together, it looks like a textbook scare operation. The kind designed to paralyze decision making, saturate intelligence channels, and force adversaries to prepare for the wrong moment. This would not be the first time a pump fake appeared before the real move.
It is important to say this clearly. The United States does not yet have the full military posture in place for a sustained regional defense, let alone a prolonged war. Carrier coverage, missile defense saturation, and logistics depth are visible, and they are not fully assembled. That matters. Which is precisely why last night mattered.
The effect was confusion. For analysts, whose job is to make sense of this. Among governments. Among markets. An attack felt possible. Plausible. Maybe even imminent.
That ambiguity was the point. If Washington strikes, it will want the action to come as a surprise. Not after days of televised buildup, but out of silence. That is, if the goal is effectiveness rather than theater.
The coming week may bring more of this. More signals. More information that cannot be verified because the country at the center of it remains sealed from the world.
But if President Trump is taken at his word, and that is never simple, his threshold is not theoretical. It is personal. He has said repeatedly that the scale of killing matters. If credible numbers emerge showing how many protesters actually died, the calculation could shift quickly.
In that context, the USS Abraham Lincoln is leaving the South China Sea and heading for the Middle East. The order, quietly issued by the Pentagon, sends one of America’s most powerful ships and its entire carrier strike group away from China’s front yard and into the U.S. Central Command theater, where Iran is now the central focus.
Until now, there was no American carrier in the region at all, a rare gap visible on open source fleet maps. The Lincoln is the closest available answer to that absence.
The ship itself is massive. A Nimitz class nuclear powered aircraft carrier, capable of carrying around 90 aircraft, including F A 18 Super Hornets, EA 18G Growlers, E 2D Hawkeyes, and helicopters. It recently conducted F 35C flight operations during its Indo Pacific cruise. It is a floating airbase able to project stealth, electronic warfare, and early warning to any coastline within reach.
Flanking it is Carrier Strike Group 3, including guided missile destroyers USS Spruance, USS Michael Murphy, and USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. Below the surface, at least one attack submarine is believed to be accompanying the group, with logistics ships keeping the formation fueled and supplied.
The transit to the Middle East will take roughly a week, depending on routing and speed. OSINT accounts tracking its movement expect it to appear near the Gulf by late January.
Operations no longer begin with declarations. They begin with patterns. The pattern that emerged last night was not random. It was deliberate. And it was meant to be seen.
Whether it was rehearsal, misdirection, or a last minute plan that was ultimately canceled remains unclear. But rehearsals are not performed unless the actors expect to eventually take the stage.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:13 am to OU Guy
quote:
Thats why although very sad to see - them giving their own blood for freedom will matter to sustain long afterwards. If they obtain it, they will cherish and nurture freedom from tyranny. There will be a high cost. But a great reward.
I think Iran's people have had enough of the nutjob mullah's rule for a few generations.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:25 am to VolInBavaria
quote:
I still think we're gonna hit them, but I think we just need time to get our assets in order.
I too feel differently. Too many reasons to do it.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:26 am to Geo_Pig
Has the internet been turned back on?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:33 am to WeeWee
Well, no one here should ever mention Obama’s Syria redline again as if Trump actually doesn’t attack, then this is a million times worse after he literally told them to keep protesting and that help was on the way.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 11:57 am to Slippy
quote:
The best hope for avoiding this is that the various factions in the country (monarchists, anti-monarchists, radicals, non-Persian minorities) come together as one to force the creation of a democratic government. Quite a few smart people are not confident in that last scenario materializing.
I think our time in Afghanistan needed to come to an end when it did.
But Taliban controlled Afghanistan sharing a border with Iran seems like a real thorn in the side of hope that a more western and liberal republic will emerge in Iran.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:04 pm to OU Guy
Toppling Iran is the easy part. We could easily rain hell down upon the regime. The hard part is the aftermath. If you’re going to topple it, you better have a plan in place to provide immediate humanitarian assistance or you’ll end up with a full scale humanitarian disaster.. The biggest mistake we made toppling the Iraqi regime was believing we would be hailed as heroes and liberators. We weren’t and it allowed fighters to pour in from around the region.. so before we go breaking it, we better understand what we are committing ourselves to.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:18 pm to Blizzard of Chizz
quote:
Toppling Iran is the easy part. We could easily rain hell down upon the regime. The hard part is the aftermath. If you’re going to topple it, you better have a plan in place to provide immediate humanitarian assistance or you’ll end up with a full scale humanitarian disaster.. The biggest mistake we made toppling the Iraqi regime was believing we would be hailed as heroes and liberators. We weren’t and it allowed fighters to pour in from around the region.. so before we go breaking it, we better understand what we are committing ourselves to.
Iraq was probably going to be a disaster no matter what, but a big problem was letting society stop after we “won”. Most everything was disbanded.
Iran has a much better functioning society in place. The key is cutting off the head of the snake/removing the regime, while keeping as much of the country chugging along as possible.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:22 pm to Sus-Scrofa
quote:
Iraq was probably going to be a disaster no matter what, but a big problem was letting society stop after we “won”. Most everything was disbanded.
We destroyed the entire state
Not easy to rebuild a normal society in that scenario
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:37 pm to Sus-Scrofa
quote:
The key is cutting off the head of the snake/removing the regime, while keeping as much of the country chugging along as possible.
And how are you going to do that without boots on the ground? If you bomb the current regime and its military out of existence from 30k feet, how do you ensure the country just keeps chugging along? Iran has made a lot of enemies over the past 50 years. No army or functioning govt even in the short term makes them a prime target for a lot of get back.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:38 pm to SpecialK_88
quote:
Well, no one here should ever mention Obama’s Syria redline again as if Trump actually doesn’t attack, then this is a million times worse after he literally told them to keep protesting and that help was on the way.
1. Help is on the way it will just take time to get all the assets in place.
2. Iran did agree to not execute arrested protesters which could indicate that there was significant progress in last second negotiations.
3. I am of the opinion that last night was not a real attack but just testing the Iranian defenses.
4. As long as the protesters stay on the streets this isn't over so it is too soon to make statements like yours.
5. Even if Trump does nothing overtly you can bet your arse that the USA is doing stuff behind the scene. As long as the Islamic Republic falls then Trump looks like a winner.
6. I am no expert but I do play one on the internet and IMHO it would be better if the regime fall without the USA, Israel, or anyone else having to strike.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:48 pm to WeeWee
quote:
it would be better if the regime fall without the USA, Israel, or anyone else having to strike.
Totally, but how is this going to happen with the arms disparity present at the moment?
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:49 pm to Blizzard of Chizz
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Tousi is already reporting that some of the IRGC is starting to complain about not getting paid enough. Iran's currency worthless now which makes one wonder how long will the troops and police continue working for the regime if their pay is worthless? I wonder if the Israeli's have intelligence that the regime is not quite weak enough to be toppled but a few more days of no pay or being paid with worthless money might change the power dynamics in Iran? I am just speculating here because it is obvious nobody outside of Trump's inner circle knows wtf the USA is going to do and that is the way it should be. Also nobody outside of the IRGC top people know just how weak or strong the regimen is.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:53 pm to WeeWee
If its not obviouis over the last few weeks that Trump has control of the situaiton it never will be. They know exactly what is going on, what they are going to do and waiting for the best time to do it, I have no doubt.
Relax and enjoy the ride.
Relax and enjoy the ride.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:54 pm to Crimson1st
quote:
it would be better if the regime fall without the USA, Israel, or anyone else having to strike.
Totally, but how is this going to happen with the arms disparity present at the moment?
The protesters in Kyiv did not have weapons but they brought down the Yanukovich regime. The difference between the Euromaiden and this protests is that the majority of the Ukrainian military leaders refused to follow orders to attack the protesters and that is what caused Yanukovich to flee to Russia in the middle of the night. If the army or even part of the army decides that it can no longer back the IRGC and the regime and either returns to their barracks or switches sides then the protesters have a chance.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:57 pm to Hawgleg
quote:
If its not obviouis over the last few weeks that Trump has control of the situaiton it never will be. They know exactly what is going on, what they are going to do and waiting for the best time to do it, I have no doubt.
Relax and enjoy the ride.
I agree with everything you said except for the part about knowing what is going on. No matter how good American, Israeli, Saudi, etc intelligence is there is no way to know what the IRGC and the Ayotallah are thinking.
Posted on 1/15/26 at 12:58 pm to SpecialK_88
quote:Can't remember the last time I did hear about it. You?
Well, no one here should ever mention Obama’s Syria redline again as if Trump actually doesn’t attack, then this is a million times worse after he literally told them to keep protesting and that help was on the way.
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