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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 11:05 am to HagaDaga
Posted on 2/1/26 at 11:05 am to HagaDaga
quote:
this shindig is about to come to an end with some kind of treaty signed?
Not likely.
Putin wont stop until he has all of Donbas. Which he can't conquer militarily. So he's not in a position to sign any kind of treaty. And Ukraine won't give up lamd that hasn't been conquered. So it's a political stalemate as much as a military one
1
Posted on 2/1/26 at 11:10 am to cypher
quote:
Musk says steps to stop Russia's use of Starlink work
This coming from a guy who says that '"The fundamental weakness of Western civilization is empathy.'
Something tells me we are going to be hearing about how he's shut down Russia's use of his equipment for years to come while they continue to use it.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 2:23 pm to HagaDaga
quote:Isn't that how almost all wars end...?
So did I hear right that this shindig is about to come to an end with some kind of treaty signed?
Posted on 2/1/26 at 2:59 pm to Leopold
quote:
After seeing the new Epstein files, Biden is a creep. Trump looks more and more like a serial pedophile - they aren't close.
This is a case of removing the foot from your mouth and removing all doubt about being a dumbass.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 4:33 pm to No Colors
quote:
Putin wont stop until he has all of Donbas. Which he can't conquer militarily.
Have you looked at the maps lately?
Posted on 2/1/26 at 4:48 pm to T1gerNate
I have.
Look, we all know given enough time and death the Russians probably - probably - will take the Donbass. But they had around 90% of the Donbass back in 2023 and he's got about 90% now with only minimal gains.
So which side of this coin do we look at, T1ger?
Do we look at the fact that the Russians are truly *this close* to taking the Donbass, or do we look at the fact that they've been *this close* for over three years now and are openly asking President Trump to help them take it.
Furthermore, it's not just if they will take it. The questions a lot of us are asking is 'is it worth it?' Yes, they've made it a singular point since Putin declared his intentions back in 2022 but holy sh*t has it been expensive, and the cost of this war as a whole and this objective in particular has skyrocketed since then. Even if they do take it, it could end up being a pyric victory.
Look, we all know given enough time and death the Russians probably - probably - will take the Donbass. But they had around 90% of the Donbass back in 2023 and he's got about 90% now with only minimal gains.
So which side of this coin do we look at, T1ger?
Do we look at the fact that the Russians are truly *this close* to taking the Donbass, or do we look at the fact that they've been *this close* for over three years now and are openly asking President Trump to help them take it.
Furthermore, it's not just if they will take it. The questions a lot of us are asking is 'is it worth it?' Yes, they've made it a singular point since Putin declared his intentions back in 2022 but holy sh*t has it been expensive, and the cost of this war as a whole and this objective in particular has skyrocketed since then. Even if they do take it, it could end up being a pyric victory.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 5:15 pm to T1gerNate
quote:
Have you looked at the maps lately?
Yes. And Russia has conquered almost exactly 1% more of Ukraine in the past 3 years. That pace is slowing down, not speeding up
Posted on 2/1/26 at 6:16 pm to No Colors
You see what you want to see
Posted on 2/1/26 at 6:52 pm to T1gerNate
I mean, we’re looking at the same maps you are. And it’s clear to me the Russians are moving at a snails pace….
Posted on 2/1/26 at 7:03 pm to Leopold
quote:
And it’s clear to me the Russians are moving at a snails pace….
And at a huge cost. We won't get real numbers until after the war ends, but there is a LOT of anecdotal evidence that Russia is absorbing huge casualty numbers in the last 3-4 months.
At some point, you have to say the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 7:08 pm to T1gerNate
Nate, what does the map from 11/1/25 look like compared to now?
Posted on 2/1/26 at 7:08 pm to Leopold
quote:
I mean, we’re looking at the same maps you are. And it’s clear to me the Russians are moving at a snails pace….
It has already been calculated that when the offensive to take Pokrovsk began, a snail would have traveled further by now than the Russian's have.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 7:14 pm to T1gerNate
When the Chinese army attacked Vietnam several years after the north overran the entire country, it took ground then had to withdraw due loss of so many men and much of its equipment.
Taking ground while necessary, done this slowly is not the means to a victory with Russia's recruitment/mobilization efforts hitting a stone wall except among some poor Africans and Indians among others. Local governments in Russia are the actual recruiters and less and less are available. Putin is not about to start mobilizing the male population of St. Petersburg or Moscow less he fall from a high window even if he is found in a basement bunker
Taking ground while necessary, done this slowly is not the means to a victory with Russia's recruitment/mobilization efforts hitting a stone wall except among some poor Africans and Indians among others. Local governments in Russia are the actual recruiters and less and less are available. Putin is not about to start mobilizing the male population of St. Petersburg or Moscow less he fall from a high window even if he is found in a basement bunker
Posted on 2/1/26 at 7:45 pm to doubleb
quote:
Nate, what does the map from 11/1/25 look like compared to now?
This post was edited on 2/1/26 at 7:55 pm
Posted on 2/1/26 at 8:09 pm to T1gerNate
I was wondering about that as well.
Thank you for posting.
EDIT: Just to give a little context, here is article pointing out the pace the Russians have been moving at:
Russia's advance is slowest of any army in a century
"A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that since early 2024, Russian forces have advanced between 15 and 70 metres per day on average, marking an exceptionally slow rate for a sustained military offensive.
The slow pace is most evident in eastern Ukraine. Around Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia launched an offensive in February 2024, troops have advanced at roughly 15 metres per day, gaining about 10 kilometres over nearly two years, without capturing the city."
Thank you for posting.
EDIT: Just to give a little context, here is article pointing out the pace the Russians have been moving at:
Russia's advance is slowest of any army in a century
"A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that since early 2024, Russian forces have advanced between 15 and 70 metres per day on average, marking an exceptionally slow rate for a sustained military offensive.
The slow pace is most evident in eastern Ukraine. Around Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, where Russia launched an offensive in February 2024, troops have advanced at roughly 15 metres per day, gaining about 10 kilometres over nearly two years, without capturing the city."
This post was edited on 2/1/26 at 8:15 pm
Posted on 2/1/26 at 8:28 pm to Leopold
Posted on 2/1/26 at 8:46 pm to DMAN1968
quote:
After seeing the new Epstein files, Biden is a creep. Trump looks more and more like a serial pedophile - they aren't close.
This is a case of removing the foot from your mouth and removing all doubt about being a dumbass.
Maybe. I think we both agree that time will tell.
But right now both the Russians look like they are going to lose and Trump looks more and more like he's covering sh!t up.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 9:00 pm to Leopold
Chasiv Yar has been under Russian control since at least last August.
Posted on 2/1/26 at 9:02 pm to Leopold
Ferguson makes some good points. Prof G has no clue about how bad the EU has been screwing the US with tariffs and regs designed to keep US goods out of Europe
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